Rain, injuries, and high-implied run totals succinctly summarize today’s slate.
Pitchers
Only five teams are currently implied to score less than 4.0 runs. Pitching boils down to Max Scherzer and everybody else.
Scherzer
Scherzer had pitched at least six innings in 17 straight starts before his recent meltdown at Coors Field. Over that span, he averaged a 12.089 SO/9 rate and recorded at least 10 strikeouts in 10 starts. The Braves don’t offer a favorable team SO/AB (0.240), but their projected wOBA of 0.287 ranks fifth-worst on the slate. The previous 13 times Scherzer claimed similar Vegas data – an opponent implied run total of 2.8 and a team moneyline of -260 – he met salary-based expectation eight times and provided a +10.23 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
When hitters have made contact in Scherzer’s last two starts, they’ve recorded a 61 percent fly-ball rate. Only two of the hitters in Atlanta’s lineup have compiled a fly-ball rate greater than their ground-ball rate over the past 15 days, and as a team their 30.9 percent fly-ball rate since the All-Star break is the second-lowest in the league.
Scherzer’s salary of $13,600 on DraftKings offers little wiggle room to target a second pitcher of mid-tier talent and a potent offense. His $11,000 price tag on FanDuel is within $600 of Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez. There’s a steep decline to the fourth-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($8,800), so if you’re going to pay up, Scherzer is the likely candidate.
Everybody Else
Chris Sale’s 6.2 K Prediction is his sixth-lowest total in our DraftKings database and worst since July of 2014. When pitchers have been priced within $500 of Sale’s $12,000 salary and predicted for 6.2 strikeouts, they’ve met salary-based expectations 60.0 percent of the time, but their +0.76 Plus/Minus doesn’t present much Upside. Of the 85 instances on DraftKings, only twice has a pitcher hit that threshold.
Despite the Athletics’ slate-worst 0.263 wOBA, only two of the projected hitters in the batting order possess negative wOBA differentials against left-handed pitchers. As a team, their 18.1 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season is the second-lowest mark. Rather than invest minimal exposure to Sale, this may be a better opportunity to stack Oakland — currently implied for 3.6 runs — in tournaments. Sale has been roughed up for 13 of his 18 home runs allowed this season at home, and he hasn’t been worth his price tag lately on DraftKings. Sale offers the potential for low ownership and not much else.
Felix Hernandez has notched at least eight strikeouts in three of his last four outings. If you’re going to fade Scherzer on DraftKings due to his salary, Hernandez is the guy to target. The Brewers are currently implied to score 3.4 runs, the second-lowest total on the slate, and their team 0.293 SO/AB rate has conveyed into a 7.7 K Prediction for Hernandez, his highest this season.
Another weekend breakdown, another Aaron Sanchez mention. He mainly offers safety at a cheap price ($7,400 on DraftKings) after six straight starts priced above $9,800. A majority of the Indians hitters claim a higher ground-ball rate than fly-ball rate over the past two weeks, and that will play directly into Sanchez’s strength. Sanchez doesn’t offer much Upside due to his mediocre 7.44 SO/9, but he’s backed by a high-scoring offense and has a 75.0 percent Consistency on FanDuel and DraftKings in road starts this season.
David Phelps leads all pitchers with an 8.9 K Prediction. He costs less than $6,500 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he’s only the seventh pitcher dating back to 2012 with that high of a K Prediction and that low of a salary. Results have been mixed, but Phelps is coming into this matchup on the strength of an eight-strikeout performance in just 5.1 innings. However, I’m concerned by Ron Kulpa behind the plate. Although his presence has historically benefited pitchers, he changed his stripes this year: Pitchers have failed to exceed salary-based expectations at least 55.0 percent of the time on FanDuel and DraftKings this season, and teams are hitting 0.280 and slugging 0.468 — top-four marks in both categories.
Robbie Ray is third in SO/9 (11.61) since the All-Star break, and San Diego’s projected lineup offers the third-best SO/AB (0.297) rate for pitchers. A 7.7 K Prediction lines up perfectly with umpire Marty Foster: Pitchers who’ve been projected for at least 7.0 strikeouts with Foster behind the plate have historically recorded a +3.65 Plus/Minus on 61.1 percent Consistency on DraftKings (sample size of 18).
Left-handed starter Brandon Finnegan probably isn’t on your radar. The Dodgers are currently implied to score 5.3 runs. However, they struggle against left-handed pitchers. This presents a potentially exploitable edge in tournaments. The Dodgers’ team batting average of 0.228 against left-handed pitchers is the worst mark in the league this season, and their team ISO of 0.133 against left-handed pitchers is the third-lowest in the league. A majority of the hitters in the lineup have registered incredible recent advanced stats, yet they have only faced two left-handed starters over the past 15 days. Justin Turner and Enrique Hernandez are the only players in the projected lineup who have supplied a positive Plus/Minus against left-handed pitchers this season. Consider rolling the dice on Finnegan this evening. You might be the only one.
Stacks
The top hitters in the Rockies’ batting order represent the top-rated stack on FanDuel and DraftKings. Those stacks are quite pricey, so I’m looking elsewhere.
The Mariners are the fourth-highest rated FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model, yet are significantly cheaper than the other top options. Opposing starter Wily Peralta leads all pitchers on the slate with a 64 percent ground-ball rate in his last two starts, but the Mariners are currently implied to score 5.2 runs and Peralta is projected for only 3.0 strikeouts.
The top-four five-man stacks on DraftKings based on Pro Trends belong to the Nationals. Their implied run total has improved by 0.4 runs since open, and that has also led to the second-highest rated five-man stack in the CSURAM88 Model. Utilizing the Pro Trends filter was an attempt to differentiate lineup construction and maintain a manageable salary. This five-man Nationals stack is $2,100 cheaper than their highest rated stack.
Hitters
The Infirmary
Josh Donaldson (thumb) and Troy Tulowitzki (calf) are expected to return to the lineup after missing Friday’s game. Opposing pitcher Josh Tomlin has allowed at least one home run in his last 12 starts and 19 total over that stretch. His 1.89 HR/9 rate over the past 12 months is only offset by his 1.108 WHIP, the third-best mark on the slate. In his last three starts, opposing hitters have managed a 47 percent hard-hit rate. The top-four hitters in the projected lineup and Justin Smoak have an ISO of at least .205 against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months, and six of their top-seven hitters have a Bargain Rating on FanDuel of at least 82 percent.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts insinuated lineups changes today; Josh Reddick will rest against a lefty. We already touched on why their 5.3 implied run total could be exploited. If Roberts opts for a stripped-down version of the lineup, Brandon Finnegan may graduate from guy-I-mentioned-in-passing to legitimate tournament target. At $5,600 on DraftKings, you’d certainly set yourself up to pair him with Scherzer.
Jason Heyward will likely get the weekend off and return to the lineup on Monday. This should provide an opportunity for Coors Field exposure through Jorge Soler or Matt Szczur. They are by no means cheap, but they are the few Cubs hitters priced below $5,000 on DraftKings. Szczur has the better slugging percentage (0.455), and Soler owns the better ISO (0.213). The Cubs will face right-handed pitcher Jeff Hoffman, a rookie making his debut start at Coors Field. Perhaps that’s why the Cubs are currently implied to score 6.6 runs.
Charlie Blackmon didn’t play Friday due to a right toe contusion, and David Dahl hit leadoff for the first time ever. Dahl may not start against left-handed pitcher Mike Montgomery if Blackmon recovers in time for tonight’s game, and it appears Ryan Raburn will get the start regardless. He’s one of the cheapest Coors Field options, and he leads the Rockies with 0.121 wOBA and 0.130 ISO differentials.
Ryan Zimmerman is expected to return to the lineup after getting hit on the left wrist with a pitch at the end of July. His presence will shift Daniel Murphy back to second base and Trea Turner to the outfield. The top of the batting order isn’t expected to accommodate Zimmerman when the Nationals are healthy, but manager Dusty Baker reiterated his plan to give the regulars a day off. This may allow Ben Revere to stick in the lineup and bat second.
Matt Wieters is on baby watch and will likely land on the paternity list today. Caleb Joseph will likely replace Wieters behind the plate and in the batting order. The Orioles are currently implied to score 4.9 runs, making Joseph a solid punt play.
Jay Bruce is expected to get the day off, and Neil Walker, who hasn’t played in four straight games due to lower back stiffness, is still on baby watch. I’m not too concerned about their absence since Wilmer Flores will likely move up in the order against left-handed pitcher Matt Moore. Since 2015, Flores has supplied a +2.21 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +3.35 Plus/Minus on FanDuel when facing a left-handed pitcher. Batting in AT&T Park will likely diminish his home run potential, but only one of his 12 home runs this season wouldn’t have cleared the left-field fence in San Francisco, per ESPN’s Home Run Tracker. The wind is projected to blow out to center field at 10 miles per hour, and Flores only costs $3,700 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel.
Logan Forsythe (back) and Kevin Kiermaier (hip), the regular top-of-the-order hitters in Tampa Bay’s lineup, are currently questionable. Kiermaier exited last night’s game in the third inning, and his replacement, Nick Franklin, also left the game due to injury and landed on the DL. Rangers pitcher A.J. Griffin has surrendered at least one home run in his last 10 starts and 15 total in that time frame. Griffin has dominated right-handed hitters, and 13 of his 17 home runs allowed have been hit by left-handed hitters. As fate would have it, Corey Dickerson and Brad Miller, two left-handed hitters, lead the Rays in ISO.
