Two of the four games not included in the main slate are threatened by a near 50 percent chance of precipitation. Four of the night games will also feature inclement weather converging on the East Coast. Since the slates are not evenly split, I’m going to treat the day as one big slate.
Pitchers
Homey Don’t Play That
Madison Bumgarner will pitch in AT&T Park while facing a team with the second-worst SO/AB (0.299) mark on the main slate but the second-best team wOBA (0.331). He predictably carries the highest K Prediction (8.1) and salary on DraftKings ($12,700) and FanDuel ($11,400).
Jacob deGrom is $500 cheaper than Bumgarner on DraftKings and $600 cheaper on FanDuel. The Mets are somehow a slate-best -235 favorite against the Padres — a team currently implied to score a slate-low 2.8 runs — even though the Mets have averaged 3.50 runs when deGrom starts, the third-lowest mark in the National League. Since the All-Star break, the Mets have recorded the fewest walks (62) and fourth-fewest runs (89). I take nothing away from deGrom, but I can’t trust the Mets offense to provide enough run support for a win.
Both Bumgarner and deGrom have been exceptional when pitching in their home ballparks this season (chart below). Between the two, Bumgarner has six of the seven highest-scoring outings on FanDuel and six of the nine lowest. He provides more Upside, but if it’s Consistency you prefer, choose deGrom. The Mets ace edges Bumgarner in recent ground-ball rate – 51 percent to 32 percent, respectively – over the last two starts, and the Giants’ and Mets’ moneylines are diverging in deGrom’s favor.
Kyle Hendricks possesses the best Plus/Minus (+8.31 on DraftKings and +13.54 on FanDuel) among pitchers starting in their home ballpark this season (minimum 10 starts). He’s the third-priciest pitcher on DraftKings ($11,400) and the fourth-most expensive on FanDuel ($9,400).
Aaron Sanchez will make his third-straight weekend start as the Blue Jays utilize a six-man rotation. For the third-straight week, I get to remind you of his dominance at home this season and what he lacks in strikeouts he counters with a steady diet of ground balls. Because rain will affect the Cubs game in the early slate, Sanchez and his cheap salary on FanDuel ($8,900) bring less risk. Should the forecast clear up in Chicago, Hendricks, who hasn’t exceeded seven strikeouts in his last nine starts, provides higher strikeout potential and a stellar home résumé.
Cole Hamels trails only Sanchez in ground-ball rate (60 percent) over the past 15 days, and he leads all pitchers on the slate with 44.6 FanDuel points per game over the last month. The last time Hamels faced the Tigers, he recorded nine strikeouts in seven one-hit innings. Even though Hamels has performed well recently – better in all advanced stats compared to Bumgarner and deGrom, in fact – six of the hitters in the Tigers’ projected lineup have registered a batted-ball distance differential of at least 19 feet over the past 15 days. The savings in salary might be enough to warrant cash-game exposure, but Hamels strikes me as a tournament play given the Tigers’ recent form combined with Hamels’ blasé performance at home (see below for FanDuel).
Zach Davies has only produced one Dud all season, and pitching at Miller Park is when you want to roster him (see below). He’s much cheaper on DraftKings ($7,600), and the Reds’ implied total has dropped 0.2 runs since opening. Davies is one of only three pitchers on the slate to improve his hard-hit rate, exit velocity allowed, and batted-ball distance allowed over the fortnight; he’ll likely get overlooked in all formats.
Kendall Graveman has been immaculate at home this season, exceeding salary-based expectations in all nine starts on FanDuel and eight times on DraftKings. His recent advanced stats measure up to his opposing pitcher, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Graveman costs $5,400 on DraftKings. Nonetheless, he doesn’t offer much strikeout upside, and Iwakuma hasn’t allowed a run in 14 consecutive innings, diminishing Graveman’s win potential. The Athletics’ slate-worst wOBA (0.26) in O.co Coliseum will shift most of the attention to Iwakuma, but pairing Graveman with an expensive pitcher on DraftKings can be a contrarian tactic that will provide wiggle room to target hitters with high-implied run totals.
Stacks
The top-rated four-man stack on FanDuel and DraftKings using the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the top-four hitters in the Red Sox projected lineup. Since Dustin Pedroia (illness) exited Friday’s game and is currently questionable, we’ll shift focus elsewhere.
On DraftKings, the Rangers and Red Sox accounted for eight of the top-nine five-man stacks. With Pedroia and Jackie Bradley Jr. (toe) questionable, I opted to highlight the outlier. The Blue Jays represent the second-cheapest five-man stack in the top 10, and none of their players are presently in danger of sitting due to injury. But, even at a discount, you won’t be able to double up on the marquee pitching options.
On FanDuel, CSURAM88 churns out a Boston-heavy list. The difference in rating between the top-two stacks is marginal, but you can save $1,500 when dropping down to the second-rated four-man stack.
There is an average of 2.80 home runs hit per game in Globe Life Park in Arlington this season, second only to Great American Ballpark (3.00). Opposing left-handed pitcher Matt Boyd has surrendered a slate-worst 2.17 HR/9. The Rangers are currently implied to score 5.5 runs, and the top-five hitters in their projected order claim an ISO of at least .200 against left-handed pitchers. Even the hitters not in the projected lineup – Robinson Chirinos and Mitch Moreland, if they were to start – are a combined 5-for-12 with three home runs against Boyd.
Hitters
As the Nationals distance themselves from the rest of the NL East, Dusty Baker has hinted at resting a few of his regulars during this current stretch of 20 games in 20 days. With Bryce Harper (neck) likely unavailable and the Nationals facing rookie Rob Whalen in his second start, prepare for one of Daniel Murphy, Jayson Werth, or Anthony Rendon to sit the night game before Sunday’s day match. Currently, each member of the projected lineup has at least six Pro Trends on DraftKings. Because the Nationals are currently implied to score 5.2 runs, whoever joins the lineup will require some tournament exposure. In recent weeks, Ben Revere has been the beneficiary of everyday outfielders resting.
Nationals right-handed starter Reynaldo Lopez hasn’t pitched beyond the fifth inning in his first two career starts and has the worst WHIP (2.44) on the slate. The Braves have hit 20 of their 75 home runs since the All-Star break and rank third in total hits. Since adding Matt Kemp at the trade deadline, they’re sixth in RBIs (62) and fifth in runs (61). Despite the offensive turnaround, however, they’re still near the bottom in ISO. Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, and Adonis Garcia – the latter being the only member of the team with a decrease in hard-hit percentage over the past 15 days – all cost $2,500 on FanDuel. This is a nice tournament spot, as the Braves are only currently implied to score 4.0 runs against a rookie pitcher.
Joey Votto has racked up a +2.76 Plus/Minus on 57.1 percent Consistency at Miller Park since 2012 on FanDuel. It’s his highest non-Coors Field Plus/Minus and Consistency. Over the past month, Votto has achieved a 62.0 percent Consistency on FanDuel and boasts a 90 percent Bargain Rating there.
Miguel Sano has hit five home runs in his last six starts. Opposing pitcher Dillon Gee, who pitched two innings in relief on Wednesday and will take the mound for the Royals on two days rest, has yielded 1.69 HR/9 over the past year, compounded by 11 home runs in his last six starts. The Twins are currently implied to score 5.2 runs for only the fifth time all year, and the top-five hitters in their projected batting order possess a Bargain Rating of at least 93 percent on FanDuel.
David Dahl failed to record a hit for the first time in his career last night, snapping a 17-game hitting streak. Although DraftKings finally raised his price above $4,000 for the second-straight day, FanDuel dropped his salary to $3,100, his lowest mark in August. If Carlos Gonzalez (ankle) is unable to play for the fourth-straight game, Dahl will likely continue batting cleanup. I say ride him while he’s hot and cheap.
Rangers starter Cole Hamels has surrendered 19 stolen bases, an American League high. The Tigers don’t have anyone on the team that averages at least 0.100 stolen bases per game, but Ian Kinsler is as close as they get, leading the team with 13 steals. Additionally, he swiped a base off Hamels earlier this season.
