First pitch commences around 1:07 PM ET, but there are only three afternoon games and four total in the early slate. We’ll consolidate this breakdown into an all-day affair with an emphasis on the main slate.
Be vigilant of any afternoon trades. The MLB trade deadline is on Monday at 4 PM ET. Prominent players changing teams will create lineup voids.
Pitchers
Expensive Bunch
Jake Arrieta, Justin Verlander, and Drew Pomeranz are the most expensive pitchers in some order on DraftKings and FanDuel. Verlander has held opponents to a 13 percent hard-hit rate in his last three starts (per our advanced stats) and Arrieta’s club currently possesses a slate-best -229 moneyline. Pomeranz, though, has been a mixed bag in his first two starts with the Red Sox.
Four of Arrieta’s last five starts have come on the road. What if ballpark, and not overdue regression, is mostly responsible for his recent stretch of lackluster performances? Arrieta’s salary decrease may not be enough to make him an automatic cash-game play, but his $11,800 DraftKings salary is the lowest it has been since April. His $10,800 price tag on FanDuel is his fourth-lowest mark of the season. A light rain or drizzle is currently expected until late this evening, so brace for a delay, which may end up limiting Arrieta’s outing. With the weather, he may be more of a tournament option. (Also be sure to check on our Lineups page throughout the day. It automatically updates and will provide you with the most up-to-date information.)
Verlander rates in the top three of almost every recent advanced stat among today’s cohort of pitchers. His ability to meet expectations in his last start against the Red Sox — who crush the ball — should bode well for his matchup against the Astros, whose projected lineup has the slate’s third-lowest team Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) at .280. Of course, the Detroit area will likely feature light rain throughout the rest of the day.
For the third straight start, Pomeranz will face a lineup that doesn’t strikeout much, potentially negating his slate-best 10.82 SO/9. The Angels’ .218 SO/AB ranks as the fourth-worst mark for opposing pitchers and six of their projected starting hitters have positive wOBA differentials against left-handed pitchers. Pomeranz draws another strike with umpire Joe West behind the plate, who historically isn’t friendly to pitchers. However, left-handed pitchers (for some reason) have secured a +3.77 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with West behind the plate since 2015, a departure from his typically hitter-friendly marks.
Verlander’s recent form would seem to give him the highest floor of the three, while Arrieta’s long-term domination coupled with his recent struggles could make him an ideal tournament play. Pomeranz lies somewhere in the middle, but because the Cubs aren’t included in the main slate, the decision for pitching might come down to Verlander and Pomeranz, which feels lopsided. Their moneylines and K Predictions are nearly identical, but Verlander has been superior lately and is $600 cheaper on FanDuel. Because weather is likely to be a factor, Pomeranz’s late start time may get overlooked. His appeal in tournaments is twofold: He’s not the obvious choice and he’s potentially overpriced, likely reducing ownership levels.
What’s the Happs?
When J.A. Happ has made a home start for the Blue Jays, he (per our Trends tool) has historically had a +4.68 Plus/Minus and 70.8 percent Consistency on DraftKings and a +6.77 Plus/Minus on 66.7 percent Consistency on FanDuel. His Batted-Ball Differential of -35 feet is a slate-best. Happ leads all pitchers with 26.6 DraftKings points per game over the last month, and his Consistency makes him cash-game relevant.
Happ is facing the Orioles, whose projected lineup is stacked with reverse-splits right-handed batters, so Happ’s matchup isn’t as bad as the handedness of all those involved might suggest. Mark Trumbo and J.J. Hardy are the only Orioles sporting positive Isolated Power (ISO) Differentials against left-handed pitchers over the last 12 months. Also, only Matt Wieters and Pedro Alvarez have positive Hard-Hit Differentials over the past 15 days, but neither hits left-handed pitchers well.
Stacks
The top-rated stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Blue Jays, who have an implied Vegas total of 5.5 runs. Since they play in the afternoon slate, let’s look at the second-best four-man stack on FanDuel. That’s the Pirates, who also have the second-cheapest stack among the top-10 options. All four batters carry positive wOBA and ISO differentials:
The top five-man stacks based on ISO belong to the Angels. That doesn’t look good for Pomeranz, but he has yielded less than a home run per nine innings and Angel Stadium rates near the bottom in terms of home runs per game. Still, four of the five hitters have Bargain Ratings on DraftKings of at least 56 percent, and the 3-4-5-7-8 stack is unconventional. In a tournament lineup at least, this stack is probably worth using. In fact, stacking both the Red Sox and Angels could be a good contrarian move:
Hitters
For the second time this week, David Ortiz is expected to receive a rest day, which is reflected in the Lineups page and the Player Models. Hanley Ramirez will take over at DH and bat cleanup. The Red Sox are currently implied to score 4.7 runs, and every batter in the projected lineup currently exhibits at least five Pro Trends.
Buster Posey is priced at $3,000 on FanDuel for only the fourth time since the 2015 season. Over the last month he has experienced a -$1,400 Salary Change. Hunter Pence may return to the lineup after tearing his right hamstring on June 1st. In his rehab stint, he recorded three home runs and nine hits in 20 minor-league at-bats. Pence and Posey both have Bargain Ratings of at least 82 percent on FanDuel, and Pence’s $2,700 salary is at a season-low. He’s expected to hit fifth for the Giants. Utilizing a cheap two-man stack on FanDuel can help you pay up for the larger bats on the early and all-day slates.
Cheslor Cuthbert has reached base in 21 of 23 games in July. You might see that and think, “I want a piece of that in my lineups.” Indeed, he has sevent Pro Trends and is rated highly in the Bales Model. But here’s the thing: For the second straight day, he will cost $3,500 on FanDuel, his highest salary on the year and only the sixth time he has crossed the $3,000 threshold. The salary hike impedes his chances of meeting value, and at $2,900 you can have Martin Prado, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in 63 percent of his starts this month — a 22-point improvement on Cuthbert’s Consistency at a lower-average salary. Pivoting away from Cheslor might make sense. Plus, I’m not a fan of his first name. It’s weird.
Adonis Garcia is the only member of the Braves who is repping positive advanced stats in all three categories. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak while reaching base in 18 straight starts. Garcia is a better value on FanDuel (70 percent Bargain Rating), but his standalone value on DraftKings might be overlooked due to the plethora of higher-rated third basemen.
Many teams on the slate carry no more than three players with positive recent advanced stats. Abraham Almonte is the only hitter in the Indians’ project lineup with negative distance differentials over the past 15 days. The Indians are implied to score 5.2 runs, yet only two of the hitters possess a positive wOBA differential against left-handed pitchers. Nonetheless, their team wOBA is a slate-high 0.370, and opposing starter Doug Overton has curated some of the worst pitching stats over his three career starts: 2.03 WHIP and 3.78 HR/9. Stacking the Indians will be much more affordable on FanDuel, but it introduces some risk if the current forecast doesn’t cooperate.
The Rangers’ collective unit has scorched the ball since the All-Star Break. No batter has suffered a decrease in Exit Velocity over the past 15 days. Four of their projected starters claim double-digit Batted-Ball Differentials, and only Elvis Andrus has recorded a negative Hard-Hit Differential (-7 percentage points). They are currently implied to score 5.4 runs, their Team Value Rating of 86 leads all teams on FanDuel, and every hitter in the lineup has at least seven Pro Trends on DraftKings. And the best part? There’s no rain in the forecast.
Good luck!
