Can Jake Arrieta Overcome? (And Does it Matter?)
Arrieta has failed to meet salary-based expectations in his last two starts and three of his last four. More concerning is that, per our advanced stats, he has allowed a batted-ball distance 45 feet farther than his yearly average over the last 15 days. If this were a smaller slate, it might be worth chasing his Upside, especially since he’s facing the Mets, who are averaging a bottom-three Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in the slate. Fortunately, you don’t have to go that route unless you truly want to do so.
In the all-day slate, Jose Fernandez costs only $200 more than Arrieta on DraftKings and $500 more on FanDuel, all the while averaging 2.89 more strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9). His recent advanced stats show that he has gotten only better recently, allowing a batted-ball distance 39 feet fewer than his yearly average. Seeing as how the Braves’ projected lineup is actually averaging a lower wOBA than the Mets’ lineup is, paying up for Fernandez in cash games seems reasonable. Arrieta’s potential ceiling, as well as what’s sure to be a lower ownership due to his less-than-stellar recent performance, can still be leveraged in tournaments.
Appearing in the main slate, Rich Hill had exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of eight performances prior to injury. That includes averaging a +7.86 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last five. Although Hill might seem like a risky pitching option, since he hasn’t made a single start in just over a month, his SO/9 rate is actually 1.4 higher than Arrieta’s this season. More importantly, his 80 percent Consistency on DraftKings and FanDuel is an ideal fit for cash games.
Plus/Minus, Upside, Consistency, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
A Tale of Two Sites
Over the last month, Justin Verlander has failed to meet salary-based expectations three times on DraftKings, where has an average -2.28 Plus/Minus per start over that time. On FanDuel, though, where has a 97 percent Bargain Rating, he has a +1.55 Plus/Minus for that same time period. His 256-foot batted-ball distance allowed over the last 15 days isn’t optimal, but he’s facing the Rays, who strike out more than almost any other team playing today. Verlander’s potential ceiling is as high as any other pitcher’s, given the discount.
Salary Change Abounds
Not only has Danny Duffy reached salary-based expectations a top-three 69 percent of the time over the last year, but he has also reached his statistical Upside in three of his last five starts. His performance in the last month has forced DraftKings’ hand, as Duffy has seen a +$4,600 Salary Change there over that period. Note that such a change has historically seen pitchers suffer from a -2.67 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. If that doesn’t bite him, that he has allowed a hard-hit rate 27 percentage points higher than his yearly average lately will.
On the other hand, Scott Kazmir has experienced a -$4,300 Salary Change at DraftKings in the last month. And unlike Duffy’s change, a decrease of that magnitude has historically seen pitchers get a production uptick of a +0.38 Plus/Minus. A salary decline was warranted, as he has failed to meet salary-based expectations in four consecutive starts, but he has shown promise in allowing only a 204-foot batted-ball distance over the last 15 days. That alone makes him one of the more valuable option at DraftKings, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
And We’ll Never Be Royals
The Red Sox are again implied to score the most runs in the slate. At least last night there were credible reasons to fade them. It’s hard to argue that same point today, as they are facing Hector Santiago, who has a 1.78 HR/9 allowed in the past year as well as a 256-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days. The ownership they’ll attract is still worth getting off of in tournaments, but you’ll need to find an offense with a comparable ceiling.
Kansas City’s implied Vegas total this evening may not rank in the top-five, but there’s arguably no better matchup for any offense in the slate. Just note opposing pitcher Aaron Nola’s average of -4.46 DraftKings points over his last three starts. He has also allowed a hard-hit rate 24 percentage points higher than his yearly average in the past 15 days. Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, and Kendrys Morales have all accrued batted-ball distances over 210 feet in the past 15 days, making all of them stack-eligible on a team that could score a lot of runs this evening.
Other Hitters
James McCann, DET
If you’re looking to save salary at the catcher position, look no further than McCann, who costs under $3,000 at DraftKings. All of his .255 Isolated Power (ISO), .202 ISO Differential, and .555 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching are top-four at his position. What’s more is that he has averaged a respectable 234-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days.
Brandon Belt, SF
Set to oppose a lefty, Belt has a .564 slugging percentage against said handedness. He has also averaged a .410 wOBA this season, which ranks top-four among first basemen today.
Wil Myers, SD
Myers has an absurd 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. It’s perfect timing for him to have such value since he and the rest of the Padres face Ivan Nova, who has averaged only 10 FanDuel points over his last three starts. Nova also has a 1.47 HR/9 in the past year, trailing only Chad Kuhl, Santiago, and Clay Buchholz this evening.
Robinson Cano, SEA
Cano has struggled in his last 10 games, averaging a -1.91 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over that time. Even so, he has a .612 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching. His 10 Pro Trends today are second only to Jose Altuve’s at their position.
Derek Dietrich, MIA
As long as he continues leading off against right-handed pitching, Dietrich is viable given his .123 and .116 wOBA and ISO Differentials. He’s a considerable value at FanDuel, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Jake Lamb, ARI
Not only has Lamb averaged a top-five batted-ball distance in the past 15 days, but he’s now set to face Jeff Samardzija, who has a 1.37 HR/9 allowed over the past year. Samardzija has additionally met salary-based expectations in only one of his last six performances.
Aledmys Diaz, STL
Feel free to roster Diaz again, since he has a .548 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. Being one of only two shortstops averaging a batted-ball distance of at least 240 feet recently, he’s still the only player at his position with double-digit Pro Trends today.
Mike Trout, LAA
Trout is the most expensive outfielder at DraftKings, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight consecutive games. He’s the cog of any Angels stack against Buchholz, especially since he has a .417 wOBA versus RHP.
Good luck!
