There are some great pitching options today, including Max Scherzer versus the Padres (they still have the lowest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitching) and Steven Matz facing the Braves (their Isolated Power (ISO) versus southpaws remains under .100). Zack Greinke and Danny Salazar against Philadelphia and the White Sox, respectively, fit that mold as well, as both of their opponents are projected for at least .253 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB).
But there are 25 other pitchers to choose from, and some could even produce similar results despite being listed at a fraction of the cost of those already listed. Or, more importantly, some who have outright produced better advanced stats recently.
Jerad Eickhoff, PHI
Eickhoff is currently receiving only 29 percent of moneyline bets due in part to opposing Zack Greinke. However, Eickhoff’s batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days is actually 10 feet shorter than what Greinke has allowed in that span. Eickhoff’s also allowed a hard-hit rate 10 percentage points lower than his yearly average recently. That also helps explain his 20.8 DraftKings points over the past month. Choosing him over Greinke isn’t exactly optimal, but Eickhoff’s 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel at least allows for an achievable floor. Note that he’s also predicted with 0.4 more strikeouts than Greinke today.
Jon Lester, CHC
From recording a +13.89 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last four starts, to allowing a hard-hit rate 10 percent lower than the next closest pitcher in the last two weeks, nothing Lester has done recently falls short of spectacular. His recent exit velocity allowed is also equivalent to Scherzer’s. With Pittsburgh’s projected lineup averaging .246 SO/AB, it makes sense that Lester and Scherzer are the only pitchers predicted with at least eight strikeouts today.
Michael Pineda, NYY
The Twins’ implied total has dropped 0.4 runs since opening, now implying they score 3.9 rather than 4.3. More enticing, however, is that their projected lineup’s average of .277 SO/AB is bottom-four in the Early slate. Pineda’s averaged only 15.4 DraftKings points over the last month, but his +7.24 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last three starts is a more recent sign of his potential ceiling.
Wei-Yin Chen, MIA
It’s worrisome that Chen has been tagged for a 94-MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days. Still, Colorado’s implied total has plummeted 0.4 runs despite receiving 66 percent of moneyline bets. The Rockies’ Team Value Rating is also bottom-two among 20 eligible offenses in the Early slate. Rostering Chen is risky given his 1.57 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) allowed in the last year, but his 99 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings means he only needs to score 14.47 points in order to return value. The Rockies’ .245 SO/AB also helps.
The Opposite of That List
James Shields vs. CLE
Shields has failed to meet expectations in three consecutive starts, averaging a -12.41 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span. Although his salary has now dipped to $4,100 on DraftKings, note that Shields has allowed 1.45 HR/9 in the last year. Jason Kipnis should especially flourish, seeing as how he’s averaged a batted-ball distance 27 feet farther than his yearly average in the past 15 days.
Ricky Nolasco vs. NYY
No pitcher in the Early slate has allowed a batted-ball distance farther than Nolasco’s in the past 15 days. He’s received only 21 percent of moneyline bets, second only to Eickhoff today. Brett Gardner has averaged a poor 174-foot batted-ball distance recently, but he remains one of the stronger options expected to start for New York given his .109 ISO Differential.
Cody Reed vs. HOU
The Astros’ projected lineup is averaging .280 SO/AB, but both Jose Altuve and George Springer are slugging at least .577 against left-handed pitching. Marwin Gonzalez’s .100 ISO Differential is also top-three among third basemen today.
Aaron Blair vs. NYM
Blair has averaged only 4.8 DraftKings points in the last month, far and away the lowest among pitchers in the Main slate. The first five Mets hitters are also slugging at least .455 versus right-handed pitching.
Matt Boyd vs. KC
Boyd’s allowed 2.46 HR/9 in the last year, 0.61 more than any other pitcher tonight. His batted-ball distance and exit velocity allowed in the last 15 days are also bottom-two tonight. Salvador Perez’s -.124 and -.105 wOBA and ISO Differentials are among the worst at his position, but his 259-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days should cancel out whatever negative splits he has. Also note his 10 Pro Trends, four more than any other catcher in the Main slate.
Good luck!
