Because today is a holiday, the slate is set up like a Sunday: The main 15-game slate starts at 1:05pm ET. Relax and enjoy some holiday baseball today.
Pitchers
Max Scherzer is coming off extended rest; Nationals manager Dusty Baker moved Scherzer to today instead of his regularly-scheduled start this weekend. He faces the Braves, who are currently implied by Vegas for a slate-low 2.7 runs. He’s been in really solid form lately: He’s coming off back-to-back 60-point FanDuel outings. In those two games, he’s allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, induced ground balls at a 51 percent rate, and seen a 29 percent hard-hit rate.
Because of the Nats’ high-powered offense and Scherzer’s presence on the mound, they are huge -283 moneyline favorites at home today. Scherzer has a 10.2 K Prediction, a massive number but one that is actually lower than his average for the last two games. This is baseball and no one is a ‘must-start,’ but Scherzer has elite marks in almost every single category.
Unfortunately, look at that average ownership level. He’s not sneaky.
Drew Pomeranz’s stats aren’t quite Scherzer-level, but they’re pretty darn close. He faces the Padres, who are currently implied for 3.2 runs, and the Red Sox are massive -230 favorites. Pomeranz has the third-highest K Prediction today at 7.8 behind Scherzer and Chris Sale. Pomeranz has hit salary-based expectations in each of his last four games, but his advanced stats are concerning: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 246 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 40 percent. He’s a fine cash-game pivot from Scherzer — he’s $1,700 less on DK and $2,200 less on FD — but he’s cheaper for good reason: He has a significantly lower floor and ceiling.
Kyle Hendricks faces the Brewers, who are currently implied for 3.4 runs and own the second-highest SO/AB rate today (behind the Padres, which is another positive for Pomeranz). The high SO/AB rate is the reason Hendricks’ 7.7 K Prediction ranks fourth, despite his SO/9 rate ranking ninth. Hendricks has arguably been the Cubs’ best pitcher lately:
His advanced stats are solid, as you’d expect: He’s allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 88 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 33 percent in his last two starts. The Cubs are large -185 favorites, making Hendricks palatable in cash if you’re worried about Pomeranz’s advanced stats and can’t afford Scherzer.
Dodgers righty Kenta Maeda faces a Diamondbacks squad currently implied for 3.0 runs. His advanced stats have been excellent lately: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 188 feet, an exit velocity of 87 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 31 percent and induced ground balls at a 51 percent clip. His 7.1 K Prediction is sixth-best and he’s the cheapest option we’ve mentioned so far. The issue with Maeda is his innings count: He hasn’t gone over six innings since early July. He might be in that weird in-between land where he’s not quite what you want in cash but doesn’t have enough upside for tournaments.
Rangers lefty Cole Hamels is on the road facing a Seattle team currently implied for 3.4 runs. He’s coming off a miserable game against these very Mariners, in which he allowed six earned runs and struck out only four in 4.1 innings pitched. His advanced stats are pretty bad, too: He’s induced ground balls at a 59 percent rate, but batters have been smoking them to the tune of a 45 percent hard-hit rate and 93 MPH exit velocity. Hamels goes up against Felix Hernandez and this is projected to be a close game; the Rangers are only -116 favorites currently.
Chris Sale has a tough matchup today: He faces the Tigers, who are currently implied for 3.8 runs and boast the slate’s highest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) at .342. Further, Sale goes up against Justin Verlander, and this game is currently a pick’em. All that said, Sale has been immaculate lately: He’s gone at least eight innings in his last three starts and struck out 28 batters in that span. He’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 MPH and a hard-hit rate of only 22 percent in his last two. Sale’s 8.0 K Prediction is second-best in the slate. This matchup isn’t ideal for cash games at all, but Sale has as much upside as any pitcher in tournaments.
Speaking of Verlander: The dude just continues to be really solid.
However, his advanced stats hint at an impending bad game: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 242 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 66 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 42 percent in his last three starts. He does have strikeout upside — his 7.2 K Prediction is fifth-best today — and the White Sox’s 3.8 current implied run total isn’t terrible, but there’s definite sneaky downside here.
Stacks
More Coors Field! The Giants and Rockies play there today, which predictably gives one of those teams the highest-rated five-man stack on DraftKings, per the Bales Model.
The Giants (6.2) and Rockies (6.0) are currently implied for a full run more than any other team is.
On FanDuel, the top-two four-man stacks belong to the Rockies and Giants. After them, the next-highest rated stack belongs to a 1-2-3-4 straight stack of the Nationals:
This is a bit anecdotal, but because of the dominant teams this year, we’ve often had slates where the best pitcher (Scherzer) and the best offense (the Nationals, excluding Coors) are on the same team. However, people so blindly stack four players on FanDuel that the majority of Nationals stacks in tournaments tonight won’t include Scherzer. Because of the rules restrictions, it’s an interesting strategy to stack only three Nats batters and to roster Scherzer as well.
Batters
Mookie Betts is a no-splits batter and crushes both hands: He has a .394 wOBA, .232 Isolated Power (ISO), and .560 slugging percentage versus fellow righties in the last year. He’s been hitting the ball well lately: He has a batted-ball exit velocity of 92 MPH, fly-ball rate of 44 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 42 percent in his last 13 games. He faces Edwin Jackson, who has the fourth-worst WHIP today at 1.620. Betts is projected to bat third for a Boston team currently implied for 4.8 runs.
After putting up the best start to a career in MLB history, Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez has come back down to earth a bit:
However, his advanced stats are still impressive: He’s averaged a 91 MPH exit velocity and a 48 percent hard-hit rate in his last 12 games. Because of his recent struggles — which were fairly predictable because, ya know, players tend to regress when they’re playing at unsustainable levels — he might see a dip in ownership. That makes him exploitable in GPPs, as he’s hitting third for a Yankees team currently implied for 4.6 runs.
Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo has great splits against righties: He has a .393 wOBA, .254 ISO, and .550 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s been hitting a ton of ground balls lately (64 percent), but he’s been absolutely smoking them (94 MPH exit velocity). He’s hitting third today for a Cubs team currently implied for 4.7 runs.
Bryce Harper is a rare no-splits lefty, although that’s probably less actionable game theory data versus opposite-hand Ryan Weber of the Braves. In the last year, Harper boasts a .387 wOBA, .249 ISO, and .520 slugging percentage against righties. His advanced stats are very solid lately: He’s averaged a 223-foot batted-ball distance and 93 MPH exit velocity in his last 13 starts. The Nationals are currently implied for 4.8 runs; as I mentioned above, pairing Harper with Scherzer could be an interesting tournament strategy.
Unlike Harper, Rays shortstop Brad Miller is a lefty with extreme splits versus righties: He has a .358 wOBA, .267 ISO, and .533 slugging percentage in the last year. He faces Ubaldo Jimenez, who owns the third-worst WHIP in the slate at 1.693. Miller is hitting fourth today for a Rays team currently implied for 4.4 runs.
Good luck today!
