Monday brings a nice 10-game main slate at 7:05pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks faces a Pirates team currently implied by Vegas for 3.3 runs. He’s been incredible lately:
Admittedly, his recent advanced stats are a little up from his yearly rates: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 215 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, a fly-ball rate of 34 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 34 percent in his last two starts. Still, Vegas doesn’t seem to be worried and he’s at a pitcher’s park tonight in Pittsburgh, where he owns a Park Factor of 92. His 6.6 K Prediction is the fourth-best mark tonight and he’s a solid -165 favorite. He should be highly owned.
Nationals righty Tanner Roark faces an Arizona team currently implied for 3.4 runs. Roark has been really solid lately, hitting value in his last three games while averaging 6.7 innings per contest. His advanced stats match his success: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 89 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 27 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 27 percent. Roark isn’t a strikeout guy (7.34 SO/9 in the last year), but because the Diamondbacks strike out at a high rate (.292 SO/AB), he boasts a solid 6.2 K Prediction tonight. He’s only $8,500 on FanDuel and holds a 95 percent Bargain Rating there.
Cardinals southpaw Jaime Garcia has been working out of the bullpen but will return to the rotation tonight. He faces a Reds team currently implied for 3.6 runs. He hasn’t been good lately:
However, his advanced stats are a little more encouraging: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 89 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 29 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 29 percent, and he’s induced ground balls at a 52 percent clip in his last three games. The Reds own the third-highest SO/AB rate at .290, giving Garcia a 6.5 K Prediction. For only $6,800 on DraftKings, those aren’t bad marks.
Blue Jays lefty J.A. Happ faces a Yankees team currently implied for 3.6 runs. He’s been a rollercoaster to roster but has improved lately:
His advanced stats are a little odd: In his last two outings, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of only 189 feet, but he’s allowed an exit velocity of 91 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 41 percent. Happ is very risky tonight: He’s expensive — $10,100 on DK and $8,900 on FD — yet he holds a low K Prediction of 4.9. That’s likely due to the combination of the Yankees not striking out often (second-lowest SO/AB in the slate at .212) and Happ not pitching a ton of innings lately. He’s a torunament-only play today, given the guys listed above.
Indians ace Corey Kluber is the most expensive pitcher on both sites at $13,500 on DK and $11,000 on FD. By his recent results, those are fair prices:
However, this matchup is a fairly tough one: The Tigers are currently implied for 3.9 runs and their projected lineups own the slate’s fourth-highest team Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) at .330. Kluber has been limiting hard contact (exit velocity of 90 MPH and hard-hit rate of 29 percent), but he’s allowed a ton of fly balls (48 percent). He does have a very pitcher-friendly home plate umpire in Tony Randazzo, but given the price, matchup, and recent advanced stats, perhaps reserve Kluber more for guaranteed prize pools.
Astros righty Collin McHugh faces a Mariners team currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s been very solid lately, hitting value in five of his last six starts. His advanced stats align with his results: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 208 feet, an exit velocity of 87 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 34 percent. He has allowed fly balls at a 57 percent clip in that two-game sample, but because of his low exit velocity he’s less of a concern than Kluber is. McHugh is only a small -118 favorite right now but is relatively cheap at $8,100 on DK and $7,900 on FD. He’s worth a GPP dart.
Stacks
The highest-rated five-man DK stack (per the CSURAM88 Model) is a 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack of the Blue Jays.
Toronto is currently implied for 5.0 runs and owns a nice 70 Team Value Rating on DK.
The highest-rated four-man (non-Blue Jays) stack on FD is a 1-2-3-6 stack of the Nationals.
Bryce Harper is currently projected to bat third, but he injured his thumb yesterday and is day-to-day. Definitely use our Lineups tool to monitor this situation.
Batters
Switch hitter Carlos Santana is currently projected to bat leadoff for an Indians team implied for 4.7 runs. He has excellent splits against righties: He boasts a .371 wOBA, .274 Isolated Power (ISO), and .517 slugging percentage in the last year against them. He’s been hitting the ball well lately, as highlighted by his 219-foot batted-ball distance and 92 MPH exit velocity in the last 13 games. He’s facing the Tigers’ Buck Farmer, who owns the second-worst WHIP in the slate at 1.619.
Evan Longoria is projected to bat third for a Rays team currently implied for 4.8 runs. He doesn’t have extreme splits against either hand, but they’re slightly skewed towards fellow righties: He has a .361 wOBA, .265 ISO, and .546 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s also been hitting the ball well lately: He owns a 223-foot batted-ball distance and 92 MPH exit velocity in his last 13 games. He faces James Shields, who has the slate’s worst HR/9 mark at 2.16 as well as an awful 1.68 WHIP. The Rays are a really intriguing sneaky stack option tonight.
The Rangers are currently implied for 5.8 runs, a mark 0.8 higher than the next two teams in the Blue Jays and Cardinals. Carlos Gomez is projected to hit leadoff for them and is only $3,700 on DK and $3,300 on FD. To be fair, he’s not very good: He has a .290 wOBA, .146 ISO, and .367 slugging percentage in the last year versus fellow righties. But again: He’s cheap and batting leadoff for a team that is implied for 5.8 runs. It’s hard to turn that down.
Speaking of the Cardinals: Matt Carpenter is projected to bat leadoff for them. He’s actually good: He owns a .396 wOBA, .283 ISO, and .564 slugging percentage in the last year against righties. He’s been hitting the ball well lately, as highlighted by his 221-foot batted-ball distance and 92 MPH exit velocity in the last 12 games. He’s fairly inexpensive today as well at only $4,100 on DK and $3,700 on FD. He faces Reds righty Tim Adleman, who owns the second-worst HR/9 mark in the slate at 2.045.
Good luck tonight!
