There are 11 games today, one at 2:15pm ET and the other 10 in the regular 7:05pm ET main slate. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
We have quite the pitching duel in LA: Clayton Kershaw versus Madison Bumgarner.
Let’s start with Kersh. He looked outstanding in his most recent game, striking out five batters and allowing a single hit in five innings pitched. He pitched through two rain delays and today he will be limited to 90-100 pitches, which isn’t all that bad. Still, it’s pretty hard to tell what to expect from Kersh tonight. It’s very possible that he could go only five innings, but this is the first game back that I’m not recommending that you fade him.
The Giants are currently implied by Vegas to score only 2.6 runs and Kersh has ridiculous advanced stats lately: In his last two (brief) starts, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 147 feet, an exit velocity of 81 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 17 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 30 percent. His 9.1 K Prediction is the highest mark today. There’s too much uncertainty about Kersh’s innings limit to use him in cash, but I think today we can resume using him in tournaments.
On the other side of this matchup, Bumgarner faces a Dodgers team currently implied for 3.4 runs. Such is the life of pitching opposite Clayton Kershaw: Bumgarner is projected by Vegas to allow only 3.4 runs — an excellent number in a vacuum — and yet he’s a sizable +153 dog. His advanced stats are a little concerning, too: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 230 feet, an exit velocity of 91 MPH, and a fly-ball rate of 43 percent in his last two games. There’s certainly upside here — his 8.6 K Prediction is the second-highest mark today — but it’s hard to use him in cash given this next guy . . .
Mets righty Noah Syndergaard faces a Braves team currently implied for 2.6 runs. He’s been solid lately: In his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 87 MPH and a fly-ball rate of 23 percent, and he’s induced ground balls at a 57 percent clip. The Braves don’t strike out very often — their .213 SO/AB rate is the fifth-lowest today — but Thor’s high K/9 rate (11.003) still translates to a respectable 7.2 K Prediction. He’s a massive -288 favorite. Although he’s expensive — $11,600 on DK and $10,500 on FD — he is the safest option among the three aces.
After the pitchers mentioned above, there’s a sizable dip. The next-highest rated pitcher in the CSURAM88 Player Model for both DK and FD is Cubs righty Jason Hammel, who faces a Reds team currently implied for 4.0 runs. He hit value last game . . .
. . . but it still wasn’t enough to balance out his advanced stats from his awful previous performance in which he scored -2.85 DK points. In his last two games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 258 feet, an exit velocity of 97 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 42 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 50 percent. Those are bad enough that I wouldn’t blame you for just hitting the ‘x’ on him in the Player Models. Vegas is perhaps a little more optimistic — he’s a huge -227 favorite — but there’s obviously risk here. Fortunately, he’s not too expensive at $7,700 on DK and $8,400 on FD.
Toronto righty Marco Estrada faces a Mariners team currently implied for 4.2 runs. He also hasn’t been great, both in terms of results . . .
. . . or recent advanced stats: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 242 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 54 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 37 percent in his last two starts. Estrada’s K Prediction of 5.4 runs is average in this slate. You’re probably thinking, “Why would I play this guy?” Exactly. As I mentioned before, there’s a big dip between the aces and the next group of pitchers.
The Nationals’ A.J. Cole faces a Marlins team currently implied for 4.1 runs. His advanced stats aren’t stellar: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 249 feet and an exit velocity of 92 MPH in his last two starts. His 5.7 K Prediction is only slightly better than Estrada’s. Here’s what Cole has going for him, however: He’s in a pitcher’s park (Park Factor of 93) and he’s cheap ($7,400 on DK and $6,000 on FD). If you’re going to pay for a crappy pitcher today, you might as well not pay that much.
The last pitcher I’ll mention is Mariners righty Taijuan Walker, who is coming off a straight gem:
Against the Angels, he went the distance while striking out 11 batters and allowing only three hits. It was a great game.
Unfortunately, you can see in the graphic above that it was fairly anomalous. His advanced stats, while solid, aren’t even as great as you’d expect from a small sample including that game: In his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 209 feet, an exit velocity of 90 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 35 percent. And today’s matchup is really tough: He’s facing a Blue Jays team currently implied for 4.4 runs. I wouldn’t chase last game’s success too hard.
Stacks
The Rockies own the top-four five-man DK stacks in the CSURAM88 Model. Here’s the top one:
Jumping to the seventh spot is usually a good way to be contrarian but perhaps not today: Projected seventh hitter Tom Murphy is cheap and coming off a two-home run night.
After the Rockies, the highest-rated four-man FD stack belongs to the Rangers:
They are currently implied for 5.8 runs, which is tied for the second-highest mark behind the Cardinals’ 5.9. St. Louis is the visiting Coors Field team.
Batters
It would be irresponsible of me not to mention David Ortiz at Camden Yards — a place where lefties have a nice 78 Park Factor. He, of course, has otherworldly splits against righties: He has a .442 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .354 Isolated Power (ISO), and .681 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s been crushing the ball, as usual: In his last 10 games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 254 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, and a fly-ball rate of 57 percent. The Red Sox are currently implied for 4.7 runs and should go underowned.
The Cubs currently boast the day’s second-highest implied total at 5.8 runs (tied with the Rangers). Anthony Rizzo is projected to bat third and has awesome splits versus righties: He has a .402 wOBA, .270 ISO, and .570 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s been hitting well recently: In his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 230 feet, an exit velocity of 91 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 50 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 36 percent. He faces Reds righty Tim Adleman, who owns the slate’s second-worst HR/9 rate at 1.937.
Cardinals outfielder Stephen Piscotty is projected to bat third and has pretty extreme splits versus right-handed pitchers: He has a .419 wOBA, .278 ISO, and .583 slugging percentage against them in the last year. He’s been really poor lately:
And his salary has bumped up due to playing at Coors Field. However, if there were ever a time to break out of a slump, a Coors series is it. Despite the slightly elevated price tag, Piscotty still boasts an 86 percent Bargain Rating on FD.
Albert Pujols is an example of a guy possibly coming out of a slump:
His advanced stats recently paint a similar portrait: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 248 feet, an exit velocity of 94 MPH, and a fly-ball rate of 48 percent in his last 12 games. He’s facing a lefty today and has solid splits in that direction: He has a .368 wOBA, .279 ISO, and .565 slugging percentage in the last year. Despite this being a Coors slate, Pujols actually boasts a slate-high seven Pro Trends on FD.
Good luck today!
