Wow. Katie Ledecky not only brings us the beauty of her world-crushing swim last night, but she also grants us a pleasant nine-game main slate tonight. Long live Ledecky.
Katie Ledecky got the opportunity to watch all her opponents finish the race ?https://t.co/ZOS9bApT5P
— SB Nation (@SBNation) August 8, 2016
Pitchers
Miami righty Jose Fernandez is the class of the slate (as usual when he pitches), but his recent form definitely has blemishes:
Tonight doesn’t get much easier, as he faces the NL West-leading San Francisco Giants. Vegas seems to believe in him, however, as the Giants are implied for only 3.0 runs currently, the lowest mark in the slate. That alone has been historically valuable for pitchers on FanDuel, as expected:
But it is important to note that Jose is just a different Jose than normal: Because of the Giants’ slate-low SO/AB rate of .191, Fernandez’s 8.4 K Prediction — still 0.8 higher than any other pitcher’s, mind you — is lower than you’d expect given his unreal 12.933 SO/9 mark. Using our free Trends tool, you can see the 2016 games in which Fernandez has had a K Prediction of no higher than 8.4. He missed value badly against the Giants earlier in the year in this situation, but has provided value in other instances:
On the lower end of the salary range, Dodgers lefty Julio Urias will start his last game as a teenager against the Phillies. Urias’ stats are skewed due to his use as a reliever, but several really important stats to DFS pitchers suggests that we shouldn’t ignore Urias today. First, he’s cheap — $6,800 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. Second, he has the second-highest K Prediction at 7.6. And, perhaps most importantly, his Vegas data is incredible: He’s currently a massive -227 moneyline favorite going against a Phillies team implied to score 3.2 points. Putting those marks into a trend shows nice value.
And that likely even undersells his Plus/Minus upside given that his $7,000 price tag, and thus expected point total, is on the lowest end of the range. However, he’ll likely be on some type of pitch count, so perhaps restrict your exposure to just tournaments.
Hisashi Iwakuma is coming off two drastically different games — a 55-FD point gem against the Red Sox and a zero-point outing against the Cubs. Still, his advanced stats are elite: In those two games, he allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 84 miles per hour, easily the best mark in the slate. He’s facing the Tigers, who are implied to score 3.6 runs currently. He’s only a moderate favorite at -120, but if he carries his form from last game to tonight, he’ll be an elite play. Perhaps target him in tournaments given the discrepancy between his two recent starts.
Just $100 cheaper on FanDuel is Orioles righty Kevin Gausman, who is on the road against the Athletics. Being on the road is a good thing here, as Gausman gets a much better park for pitchers (Park Factor of 83) than he’s used to at Camden Yards. His Vegas data is average relative to the slate: He’s a decent -149 favorite and the A’s are implied for 3.9 runs currently. However, get your exposure in tournaments: His advanced stats are troubling, as highlighted by his 224-foot batted-ball distance and 40 percent hard-hit rate allowed in his last two starts.
The last pitcher I’ll break down is Cardinals righty Michael Wacha, a pitcher on the opposite end of the advanced stats spectrum. He has allowed a batted-ball distance of only 183 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a low line-drive rate of eight percent in his last two starts — which admittedly came with average results. He faces the Reds, who are currently implied to score 3.8 runs.
And before we move to stacks and bats: No, I’m not forgetting about Johnny Cueto. I just can’t imagine a scenario in which I’d not pay the extra $400 on DK or $200 on FD to get up to his opponent, Fernandez, instead.
Stacks
Another Coors Field slate, another top-rated five-man DK stack of a Coors team. The top stack in the Bales Model currently belongs to 1-2-3-4-7 stack of the Rangers.
Today is a slate that shows how useful our Team Value Rating metric is. It compares a team’s implied run total with the collective salaries of its batters to show their ‘Vegas value’ for that particular slate. For instance, the Cardinals are currently implied to score 5.3 runs tonight — the same mark as the Rangers and 0.1 runs more than the Rockies — yet they possess a superior 82 DraftKings TVR because of their lower salaries. Put simply: You can get the same Vegas upside with the Cardinals at a much lower cost.
On FanDuel, the top eight four-man stacks all belong to either the Rangers or the Rockies. Play them. Now let’s remove them from consideration to make this breakdown a little less boring. The next stack is a 2-3-4-6 stack of the Dodgers:
Returning again to TVR data: The Dodgers on FanDuel actually currently boast a superior TVR (77) than the Rangers (64) or Rockies (69). Again, you’re getting high Vegas upside — the Dodgers are currently implied for 4.9 runs — at a much more affordable price. The Rangers and Rockies aren’t bad plays tonight, but they aren’t the only good ones. #Analysis
Batters
Speaking of other good plays: The Blue Jays, Brewers, Astros, and Orioles are teams not mentioned yet that have current implied run totals of 4.6 or higher. Let’s mention some standout batters from those squads.
Devon Travis, projected to hit leadoff for the Blue Jays, is only $2,700 on FanDuel. He has also been excellent lately, hitting three home runs in his just-completed series against the Royals.
He has awesome splits against righties, as shown by his .401 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .218 Isolated Power (ISO), and .544 slugging percentage. His advanced stats are awesome, too: He has a 41 percent hard-hit rate in his last 12 games. He’s in great form, is in a great spot, and is way too cheap.
Stephen Piscotty has continued to put up very blah results — he has scored only three FD points in his last three outings — but the amazing opportunities for him to exceed that continue to be there as well. He’s projected to bat third for the Cardinals tonight, whom we’ve already mentioned are implied to score a slate-high 5.3 runs. He has great splits versus lefties, as shown by his .445 wOBA, .293 ISO, and .621 slugging percentage. His hard-hit rate is trending up — it sits at 37 percent in his last nine games — and he faces Reds lefty Cody Reed, who has a slate-worst HR/9 mark of 2.463. It’s time, Piscotty.
Carlos Correa is projected to bat cleanup for an Astros team currently implied to score 4.7 runs. He has struggled lately as well, as highlighted by his recent ground-ball rate of 53 percent — a very high number. However, he faces Twins righty Tyler Duffy and his bad 1.470 WHIP, so Correa will have ample opportunity to break out of this current slump.
Brad Miller, projected to bat cleanup for the Rays tonight, could be a sneaky contrarian play, as Tampa Bay is implied to score ‘only’ 4.1 runs currently. He faces righty knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, which means that he’s on the right side of his splits: He has a .346 wOBA, .234 ISO, and .493 slugging percentage against RHP in the last year. He also has a 221-foot batted ball distance and 43 percent recent hard-hit rate in his last 12 games — both great marks.
Max Kepler has a .418 wOBA, .354 ISO, and .639 slugging percentage against righties. He had his three-homer night exactly a week ago. He had two hits last night and even stole a base. He’s the Katie Ledecky of MLB DFS.
Good luck tonight!
