No random day games, a nice eight-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET, and FanDuel dropped its NFL salaries this morning: Is it DFS heaven?
Pitchers
There are currently four pitchers facing teams implied to score no more than 3.3 runs. Not-so-coincidentally, those same four pitchers are the highest-rated ones in the Bales Model today, and they’re all pretty close.
Stephen Strasburg takes the top spot currently and he does stand out above the rest: His current 9.6 K Prediction is 2.3 higher than any other pitcher’s today. However, he is expensive, especially on DraftKings, where he is $12,900 and boasts an 11 percent Bargain Rating. His advanced stats are a bit concerning — he has a batted-ball distance of 227 feet in his last two starts — and he’s pitching at Chase Field, a hitter’s park.
However, pitchers with a K Prediction that high have historically not been bothered by bad parks:
Danny Salazar faces the Twins today and is currently a heavy -208 moneyline favorite. His 6.9 K Prediction is relatively fine — it’s not Strasburgian, but no one’s K Prediction is in this slate — and his advanced stats are all where they’ve been all year. He has a Park Factor of 51 and a Bargain Rating of 41 percent on DraftKings and 62 percent on FanDuel. He’s right down the middle in just about every area: He’s essentially the DFS version of the Friend Zone.
Kyle Hendricks has the lowest K Prediction of our Four SP Horsemen tonight at 5.5, but he does have the best matchup of the four, going against the Marlins and their projected lineups’s .289 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). He’s also the cheapest of the four on both sites — $9,700 at DK and $9,100 at FD. He’s a solid favorite at -177 currently and has allowed only six earned runs total in his last seven starts. That seems decent.
Chris Archer is the last of our Boy Band Foursome and is incredibly intriguing. On the one hand, he’s a strikeout pitcher (10.669 SO/9) facing a Kansas City team that doesn’t strike out very often (.205 SO/AB). On the other hand, he has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of only 86 miles per hour in his last two starts — an excellent mark.
He also boasts a 90 Park Factor, the highest of the Fantastic Four. Those are definitely the top options of the slate — but they’re not inexpensive. If you want cheaper options, let’s keep rolling.
You know who actually boasts a better exit velocity allowed than Archer at 85 MPH? CC Sabathia. Just sayin’.
Jimmy Nelson is only $7,200 at FanDuel and is facing a team implied to score only 3.9 runs (a decent mark relative to MLB DFS slates in general). He also has an 81 Park Factor and excellent recent advanced stats. He has allowed an exit velocity of only 87 MPH, a batted-ball distance of 181 feet, and a hard-hit rate of 25 percent. He has some sneaky strikeout upside with a K Prediction of 6.1, right behind Archer’s mark of 6.6.
Marcus Stroman is a Blue Jays pitcher who often has very high moneylines because, well, he pitches for the Blue Jays.
He’s a favorite now at -110, but that could easily change to even underdog status. That would not be ideal for Stroman, who has a +2.6 Plus/Minus as a favorite and a -2.1 Plus/Minus as a dog.
Danny Duffy is the last pitcher we’ll mention. He has a 7.3 K Prediction — second-highest in the slate — and an excellent 92 Park Factor. He’s as expensive as the Pitching Beatles — think of him as Pete Best — and he even outshines some of them in the ways just listed. The only downside is that he faces the Rays, who are currently implied to score 3.7 runs. That’s not a bad mark by any means, but it’s definitely higher than the totals of the teams facing The Fourtitude. However, that perhaps makes him an awesome tournament option, especially given his K upside.
Stacks
The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model currently belongs to the Indians:
They are currently implied to score 4.8 runs, the highest mark in the slate. They also are facing Jose Berrios, who has an awful HR/9 mark of 3.147. That’s two times worse than the second-worst mark the slate. He has allowed five home runs in his last three games, and all in just a few innings pitched.
On FanDuel, the top-four highest-rated stacks all belong to the Indians as well. But that’s no fun, so let’s sort stacks by average Isolated Power (ISO). The top-overall one is a Toronto 1-2-3-9 projected stack:
The Blue Jays are implied to score 4.5 runs currently, which gives them a chance to have that optimal mix of high upside and low ownership. They’re facing Doug Fister, who has the lowest SO/9 rate in the slate at 6.220.
Hitters
Carlos Correa faces Stroman tonight, and he has a .381 wOBA, .231 ISO, and .514 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. He has also hit the ball very well lately, as shown by the 219-foot batted-ball distance and 91 MPH exit velocity in his last 12 games. Those marks haven’t translated into actual fantasy success — he went 0-4 last night — but they’re an encouraging sign of things to come.
Carlos Correa’s lineout was hit 107 MPH with a 29 degree launch angle… Similar batted balls are a HR 94% of the time.
— Daren Willman (@darenw) July 30, 2016
Bryce Harper has certainly declined after his ridiculous start to 2016. However, he’s still an integral part of a Nationals stack that could be very intriguing tonight. As mentioned above, the top stacks on both FanDuel and DraftKings currently belong to the Indians. However, the next highest-rated stack belongs to the Nationals and they’re perhaps even more optimal. For example, a projected 1-2-4-5-6 Nats stack only takes a slight dip in total Bales Model rating, but is a full $5,000 cheaper on DraftKings.
Nelson Cruz is batting cleanup for a Mariners team currently implied to score 4.4 runs tonight. He’s coming off a game yesterday in which he scored 25.2 FD points, including two hits and a home run. He has a hard-hit rate of 46 percent and batted-ball distance of 222 feet in his last 10 games. He’s in excellent batting form right now.
If you’re looking for a sneakier stack or even just stand-alone options, perhaps look to Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Jonathan Villar of the Milwaukee Brewers. They’re implied to score 4.2 runs and face Jarred Cosart, who has the second-worst WHIP of 1.647 in the slate behind Jose Berrios. Captain Kirk has a .332 wOBA, .205 ISO, and .427 slugging percentage. He’s projected to hit fifth tonight, so he could be part of a contrarian Brewers stack that will likely boast low ownership.
Lastly, I’ll mention Ryan Schimpf — partly because of his awesome last name (which that makes me hungry for seafood) and partly because of his continually-awesome splits. He has a .393 wOBA, .359 ISO, and .587 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. He faces Jimmy Nelson tonight, so the matchup isn’t completely ideal, but he does bring stand-alone upside to pair with a stack. He’s also cheap.
Good luck tonight!
