One or the Other
Jake Arrieta and Noah Syndergaard have a lot in common tonight. Both have allowed less than a single home run per nine innings (HR/9) over the last year; both have averaged at least 21 DraftKings points in the past month; both have met salary-based expectations in at least 66 percent of their starts this season; and in the last two weeks both have an exit velocity allowed of 90 miles per hour, per our advanced stats. But there are still distinguishable differences between them.
First and foremost, Arrieta is facing a team (CIN) with a projected lineup that is averaging more strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB) and a lower Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) than Syndergaard’s opponent (WSH) is averaging. Arrieta also has two more Pro Trends than Syndergaard on DraftKings and FanDuel. But, while all of that matters, it needs to be noted that Arrieta’s recent batted-ball distance allowed is 49 feet farther than that of Syndergaard, whom our K Predictor has projected with 1.1 more strikeouts than Arrieta (8.9 to 7.8) tonight.
Ultimately, the decision between Arrieta and Syndergaard might come down to the weather: Scattered thunderstorms and showers are expected in Washington sometime after first pitch.
Bauer Outage
If you want to pivot away from Arrieta and Thor then Trevor Bauer is someone to consider. His recent performance is notable. Over the last 15 days he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 155 feet — 29 feet shorter than the recent average of any other pitcher in the slate. Also see his average of 27.4 DraftKings points over the last five games and his eight Pro Trends, second only to Arrieta’s total. Of course, the Braves’ lineup is averaging only .207 SO/AB and Bauer has seen an exponential Salary Change of $5,600 over the last month at DraftKings, threatening his ability to exceed salary-based expectations. Fortunately, he now has a 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
“I cut the brakes! Wild card, b*tches!”
Marco Estrada has averaged a +4.76 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last 10 starts, yet his salary has plummeted $4,200 since his last outing because he’s pitching at Coors Field tonight. Normally that salary drop would be acceptable given the circumstance, but in this particular case the Rockies are expected to be without the services of DJ LeMahieu (bruised knee) and Trevor Story (bruised finger), both whom have wOBAs over .370 versus right-handed pitching. Contingent on who replaces them, it might be worth taking advantage of Estrada’s dip in salary, especially since it would allow you to roster hitters who wouldn’t be obtainable if you were to pay up for Arrieta or Syndergaard instead.
Plus/Minus, Pro Trends, Bargain Rating, Salary Change and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Cheap Hitters
If you do pay up for pitching, you’ll need to find some cheap hitters to use. Here are some who have a decent chance of outperforming their salary-based expectations.
Stephen Vogt, OAK
Vogt’s .127 wOBA Differential is second only to Jason Castro’s (.151) among catchers tonight. Vogt has also recorded a hard-hit rate 11 percentage points higher than his yearly average over the last 15 days.
Tommy Joseph, PHI
Joseph hasn’t been too good lately, averaging a -1.25 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last 10 games. Even so, his .645 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching keeps him viable tonight. His .237 wOBA Differential is also .094 greater than the next player at his position.
Conor Gillaspie, SF
Gillespie’s .090 Isolated Power (ISO) Differential is the second-highest among third basemen. He has also averaged 8.3 DraftKings points over his last six starts — that, despite the fact that he costs the minimum.
Jose Ramirez, CLE
Ramirez has quietly averaged a batted-ball distance 33 feet farther than his yearly average over the last 15 days. What’s more is that he’s slugging .477 against right-handed pitching, top-10 at his position.
Brandon Crawford, SF
Crawford’s .102 and .150 wOBA and ISO Differentials are both top-three among shortstops in this slate. His salary has dipped $500 overnight on DraftKings, but his recent 232-foot batted-ball distance — the highest at the shortstop position — suggests that Crawford’s salary drop is unwarranted.
Max Muncy, OAK
Muncy costs only $2,000 at DraftKings despite having standout peripherals. For instance, his 92-MPH exit velocity in the past 15 days is tied with Charlie Blackmon’s. Also, Muncy’s .291 wOBA Differential is .093 higher than any other outfielder’s.
Mitch Moreland, TEX
Moreland has a 93 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, which seems unwarranted given his 242-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days. His 95-MPH exit velocity in that span is also tied with Yasmany Tomas’ (among others) for top-two at their position.
Non-Cheap Hitters
If you manage to have the salary space for more expensive batters, maybe by forgoing Arrieta and/or Thor, here are some who could be worth the cost to roster them.
Anthony Rizzo, CHC
Rizzo has a .526 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching, top-five among first basemen in this slate. Also note that his recent 247-foot batted-ball distance is second-highest at his position tonight, behind only Marwin Gonzalez’s and Brandon Moss’ (251 feet).
Devon Travis, TOR
Travis’ .107 ISO Differential is top-four among second basemen. At the position, his .504 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching is surpassed only by Ramiro Pena’s (1.000), Logan Forsythe’s (.661), and Daniel Murphy’s (.553).
Evan Longoria, TB
Assuming that many forgo owning him since he has now failed to meet salary-based expectations in six straight performances, I should point out Longoria’s .587 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching. It’s a terrific spot in tournaments for him since his .080 wOBA Differential is also second-highest among third basemen.
Michael Saunders, TOR
Don’t be deterred by Saunders’ -0.106 ISO Differential. His raw .251 ISO is still top-10 among outfielders, and he also has a top-seven slugging percentage. He has recorded a batted-ball distance 17 feet farther than his yearly average in the last 15 days.
Stephen Piscotty, STL
In comparison to others in this section, Piscotty has a relatively small salary of $4,000 at DraftKings, so he provides some bang for the buck, given that he’s one of only two outfielders (Carlos Gonzalez being the other) with a slugging percentage over .600 tonight.
Adam Duvall, CIN
In the event that you believe that Arrieta’s 240-foot recent batted-ball distance allowed is potentially indicative of what’s to come, Duvall’s 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is calling your name. His salary there decreased $1,400 overnight due to the matchup. His .599 slugging percentage is still top-three among outfielders in this slate.
Good luck!
