Friday brings a regular 15-game main slate at 7:05pm ET. Let’s jump right in.
Pitchers
Daily fantasy baseball just hasn’t been quite as fun without getting to roster Clayton Kershaw once a week. However, the Dodgers lefty ace will return to the mound tonight in what will be his first game since June 26th. Unfortunately . . . he isn’t really playable tonight.
There are some reports that say that Kershaw is “still banged up” and others that mention a highly-probable pitch count and slow ease back into the rotation. Per the LA Times:
They [Dodgers] do not know how Kershaw’s back will respond after he pitches. But they understand how even a limited version of Kershaw can elevate their ceiling. He is unlikely to throw more than five innings Friday. He will be monitored with care throughout the process, but Roberts expects to keep a tight leash on Kershaw during his first three outings. If his body responds, he still won’t be let loose until October.
He’s in a solid spot facing a Marlins team currently implied by Vegas for 3.0 runs. But both his floor and ceiling are limited in his first start. He’s a fade but for the most contrarian of lineups.
Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez faces a Brewers team currently implied for 3.3 runs, which is the lowest mark of the slate behind the Marlins’. The Brewers own the highest SO/AB rate in the last year at .319. It’s no surprise that Martinez is tied with Kershaw and Jose Fernandez with the slate’s highest K Prediction at 8.1. Martinez’s advanced stats have been excellent recently: He’s allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, a fly-ball rate of 19 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 23 percent. The results have matched:
Speaking of Fernandez: He got crushed last outing against the Indians, allowing 12 hits and six earned runs in 5.2 innings of work. Today he faces the Dodgers, who are currently implied for 3.5 runs. Because of that Indians game, his advance stats are pretty terrible: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 214 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 36 percent. It’s not all terrible for Jose, though: He’s pitching at home — he has a Park Factor of 96 — and he’s tied for the highest K Prediction at 8.1.
Madison Bumgarner faces a Diamondbacks team currently implied for 3.6 runs. He’s pitching at Arizona’s Chase Field, which has been a bit kinder to pitchers this year but has still been a negative park:
However, he’s in great form right now. He’s coming off a gem in which he dominated the Cubs on the road, striking out 10 in six innings. His advanced stats are in line with his results: He’s allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 88 MPH and hard-hit rate of 25 percent in his last two starts. The Diamondbacks’ projected lineup boasts the lowest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in the slate at .283. The only negative for Bum today is the park.
Nationals righty Tanner Roark faces a Phillies team currently implied for 3.5 runs. He’s an absolutely massive -250 favorite. I probably don’t need to create a trend to show you that pitchers with those marks have historically done well, but I’m going to anyway:
They’ve crushed. They’ve also been highly-owned. However, I’m skeptical that Roark’s ownership will get to high levels. He’s in a slate with a ton of aces — some listed above and some yet to come — and he’s been very erratic lately, as shown below. He’s a sneaky GPP option:
Cubs lefty Jon Lester faces an Astros team currently implied for 3.8 runs. Lester has been excellent lately, hitting value in seven of his last nine games with an average FD Plus/Minus of +6.32. His recent advanced stats are solid enough: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 184 feet, an exit velocity of 89 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 30 percent in his last two starts. Because of his price point — he’s $10,600 on FD, which is $600 more than Martinez — he’ll likely be lower owned than he usually is.
The Michael Pineda train is one heckuva ride. He’s in really poor form lately: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 92 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 51 percent. That last mark is almost enough to simply ‘x’ him out of Player Models altogether. However, he is facing a Rays team currently implied for 3.9 runs and his 7.3 K Prediction is fifth-best in the slate. He’s also pretty cheap relative to his upside on DraftKings ($7,400).
Yu Darvish faces an Angels team currently implied for 3.8 runs. He’s coming off a very poor outing in which he allowed five earned runs in just four innings of work versus the Astros. His recent stats are a bit of a mixed bag: He’s allowed a high batted-ball distance (211 feet), but his exit velocity (89 MPH) and hard-hit rate (33 percent) marks are fairly solid. It’s possible that he got a bit unlucky last game versus the Astros. Today he’s pitching in LA — Park Factor of 88 — and has a 6.8 K Prediction.
Indians righty Danny Salazar faces a Twins team currently implied for 4.1 runs. After completely sucking . . .
. . . he now has perhaps the best recent form of any pitcher in the slate: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 178 feet, an exit velocity of 81 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 16 percent, and a hard-hit rate of only eight percent over his last two games. The Vegas data is concerning, but it will certainly keep his ownership low.
Pirates righty Steven Brault might be popular as a punt play: He’s the minimum $4,000 on DK, he hit salary-based expectations in his last game, and he’s facing a Reds team currently implied for 4.1 runs. However, given his awful 1.579 WHIP and poor recent advanced stats (93 MPH exit velocity), I’m not particularly interested. But he’s there if you want to roster him.
Stacks
The current highest-rated five-man DK stack in the CSURAM88 Model is a 1-2-3-5-8 stack of the Indians:
They face Tyler Duffey, who has given up 13 runs and four home runs in his last three games. They’re currently implied for 5.0 runs.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack is a boring ol’ straight 1-2-3-4 stack of the Nationals:
The Nationals are currently implied for 5.7 runs — easily the highest mark in the slate.
Batters
Mariners outfielder Seth Smith is coming off a 37.1-point FD outing in his last start on Wednesday. He’s currently projected to bat leadoff tonight and is on the correct side of his extreme lefty-righty splits: He has a .345 wOBA, .172 Isolated Power (ISO), and .439 slugging percentage against righties in the last year. In Smith’s last seven games, he’s posted a batted-ball distance of 238 feet, an exit velocity of 94 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 42 percent. The Mariners are currently implied for 4.6 runs.
Looking at another leadoff guy, St. Louis’ Matt Carpenter has a .412 wOBA, .294 ISO, and .592 slugging percentage against righties in the last year. He faces Jimmy Nelson, who has a 1.564 WHIP and hasn’t been particularly stellar lately:
Carpenter has been hitting the ball well lately — he has a batted-ball distance of 229 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a fly-ball rate of 45 percent — and he’s currently the second-rated player in the CSURAM88 DK Player Model.
Pirates lefty John Jaso, like Smith, has extreme splits against righties: He has a .342 wOBA, .142 ISO, and .422 slugging percentage in the last year. Those aren’t elite marks by any means, but he has been crushing the ball lately: He has a 95 MPH exit velocity, 50 percent line-drive rate, and 61 percent hard-hit rate in his last nine games. He’s projected to bat second for a Pirates team currently implied for 5.0 runs. He’s incredibly cheap at only $3,100 on DK and $2,500 on FD.
Giants outfielder Angel Pagan has been awful lately . . .
His advanced stats aren’t particularly encouraging, either: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 186 feet, an exit velocity of 88 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 22 percent in his last 13 games. However, his price has fallen — he’s $3,200 on FD — and he’s projected to bat second for a team 1) implied for 4.7 runs and 2) at Chase Field.
Good luck!
