The Cardinals and Cubs play a lone day game at 2:20pm ET. The remaining 14 games are included in the 7:05pm ET main slate. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Arrieta or bust.
Cubs righty Jake Arrieta is in a tier of his own in several metrics today. He’s facing a Cardinals team currently implied by Vegas for 2.9 runs, which is a huge 0.7 runs lower than any other team’s mark. Further, he’s the largest favorite on the board at -191. However, his salary on FanDuel ($10,800) is $1,200 higher than that of any other pitcher. Oddly enough, on DraftKings his $10,700 salary is behind Anthony DeSclafani’s $11,200 and Danny Duffy’s $11,600.
All that said, Arrieta has struggled lately to earn positive Plus/Minus values:
However, his advanced stats are encouraging: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 195 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 27 percent. His 6.6 K Prediction isn’t super high in a vacuum, but it is the fifth-best mark today. People might be scared away from Arrieta given his recent results, but I think now is the time to invest.
Boston southpaw Drew Pomeranz faces a Rays team currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s really struggled in his last two games, posting a combined eight FD points in those contests:
His advanced stats match: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 206 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 53 percent in his last two games. However, he does get the benefit of pitching in a pitcher’s park in Tampa Bay (Park Factor of 90) and owns the slate’s highest K Prediction at 7.7. Pitching isn’t pretty today, but Pomeranz is a nice source of upside as a pivot from Arrieta.
Rangers lefty Cole Hamels faces an Oakland team currently implied for 3.6 runs. He continues the trend of sucking lately:
In fact, his last start was against these very Athletics: He allowed six earned runs and two home runs in 6.0 innings pitched — a disappointing 18-point FD outing. His advanced stats are a little mixed: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 208 feet, an exit velocity of 90 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 28 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 40 percent. Those suggest that his recent marks — and results, probably — are likely weighed down by those two HRs allowed. He’s still induced ground balls at a great 60 percent clip in that time frame. He could be a nice bounceback candidate against an A’s team with a projected lineup that owns the third-worst Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in the slate at .281.
With Mets ace Jacob deGrom out for the season after needing elbow surgery, the Mets have moved rookie Gabriel Ynoa into the rotation. In his first start of the season, he had an excellent game: He allowed only four hits and a single earned run, striking out eight batters in 4.2 innings pitched. That last part is the issue, however: It’s unlikely that the Mets will give him a full complement of innings. However, he has an excellent matchup and showed last game that he can still hit value in an abbreviated start. He faces the Phillies, who are currently implied for 3.8 runs. His 6.1 K Prediction is solid and only so low because of the innings concern. He’s a good value on both sites, especially on DraftKings, where he is $4,300 and boasts a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He’s an easy SP2 there.
Indians righty Trevor Bauer faces a White Sox team currently implied for 3.7 runs. Yep, another guy who has struggled to hit value in his last couple of games:
However, his advanced stats in those three starts have been excellent: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 185 feet, an exit velocity of 89 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 21 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 21 percent. He doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside — he has a low 4.9 K Prediction — but is a solid -165 favorite and really cheap on DraftKings at $6,300.
Giants righty Albert Suarez has been nothing if not consistent:
Today he faces a Padres team currently implied for 3.9 runs. Suarez isn’t exciting, but this is the best matchup on the board: San Diego’s projected lineup owns the lowest team wOBA of .201. Suarez has been solid in terms of advanced stats: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 202 feet, a fly-ball rate of 31 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 22 percent. His 6.1 K Prediction is the ninth-best mark today and he’s really cheap across both sites. He’s $5,300 on DK and $5,200 on FD.
The last pitcher I’ll mention is Rays righty Chris Archer, who faces a Red Sox team currently implied for 3.9 runs. He’s opposing Pomeranz and is thus a small +104 dog. Archer struggled in his last start in Baltimore, allowing seven hits and three earned runs in 6.1 innings. However, his advanced stats are great: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 MPH, a hard-hit rate of 26 percent, and he’s induced ground balls at a 50 percent clip in his last two starts. Archer would be a better play today if he weren’t so expensive relative to the pitchers we just mentioned: He’s $8,900 on DK and $9,600 on FD.
Stacks
On DraftKings, the highest-rated five-man stack in the CSURAM88 Model is a 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack of the Blue Jays:
They are currently implied to score 5.6 runs, which is the second-highest mark today behind the Orioles’ 5.8.
Speaking of: Baltimore owns the highest-rated (non-Toronto) four-man stack on FanDuel:
After the Orioles and Blue Jays, the highest-implied teams are the Mariners, Astros, and Indians with 4.9 runs. Translation: Baltimore and Toronto will be highly owned.
Batters
Speaking of the Mariners, lefty Seth Smith is projected to bat second today. He’s on the right side of his splits facing a righty: He has a .355 wOBA, .187 Isolated Power (ISO), and .458 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s been destroying the ball lately: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 235 feet, an exit velocity of 95 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 57 percent in his last 10 games. Really, this just comes down to his price: He’s way too cheap at $4,200 on DK and $3,000 on FD.
Second baseman Jean Segura is projected to bat leadoff for a Diamondbacks team currently implied for 4.3 runs. His splits are decent enough: He has a .368 wOBA, .169 ISO, and .493 slugging percentage versus fellow righties in the last year. He’s been hitting a lot of ground balls lately (58 percent) but has been hitting them hard (92 MPH exit velocity). He has stolen-base upside, as highlighted by his .203 SB/G mark.
Astros second baseman Jose Altuve hasn’t hit value lately:
But he’s in a great spot today, projected to bat third for a team implied for 4.9 runs. He’s a no-splits guy but has great marks against fellow righties: He has a .396 wOBA, .217 ISO, and .561 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 218 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a fly-ball rate of 40 percent in his last 11 games. He’s $3,900 on FD and owns a 98 percent Bargain Rating there.
Carlos Santana is projected to bat leadoff for an Indians team implied for 4.9 runs. He hits righties very well: He has a .366 wOBA, .270 ISO, and .507 slugging percentage against them in the last year. He’s another guy who is hitting a lot of ground balls (51 percent), but he’s hitting them well (91 MPH). He has hit three home runs in his last four games. He is $4,300 on FD and owns an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck today!
