Friday brings us a huge 15-game main slate and huge tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel as a result. Let’s dive in.
Pitchers
Justin Verlander continues to return to his former days of dominance. Just look at his last 10 games:
He’s coming off a complete game against the Astros in which he struck out 11 batters and allowed only five hits and two earned runs — a 66-point FD outing. More importantly, though, his results match his advanced stats: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 191 feet and a hard-hit rate of only 22 percent in his last two outings. He’s facing the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard, so he’s currently not as large of a favorite (-118 moneyline) as he would be in a normal matchup, but there’s no denying that he’s as hot as any DFS pitcher right now.
Speaking of Syndergaard: He currently leads the slate in K Prediction at 7.9. However, that is a low mark for Thor given his SO/9 rate of 11.083 over the last year. The Tigers are currently implied to score 3.9 runs and he’s the dog in this matchup. That hurts his FanDuel value, where you get the extra 12-point bonus for a win. However, he has boasted sneaky advanced stats lately, allowing a batted-ball exit velocity of 88 miles per hour in his last two starts. That doesn’t match up with his mediocre results recently, so Thor could be a potentially contrarian, high-upside option tonight.
Blake Snell is currently the top-rated DK pitcher and the second highest-rated FD pitcher in the Bales Model. (No, I’m not messing with you.) He has just about everything you’d want out of a DFS pitcher: He’s pretty cheap ($7,900 on FanDuel), he’s in a pitcher’s park (91 Park Factor at home), he’s a favorite (-128), his opponent is implied for a low run total (3.6), and he has allowed a hard-hit rate of only 29 percent in his last two starts. He’s not the sexiest option, but he’s perhaps the best value in the slate.
Just $200 more than Verlander on FanDuel is Cubs lefty Jon Lester. Tonight he faces the Athletics, who are currently implied to score 3.5 runs. Because of Chicago’s high-powered offense — they’re currently implied for 5.1 runs — he’s a massive -208 favorite. As mentioned just a couple days ago in the MLB Breakdown, merely hitting that -200 threshold has been incredibly valuable for DFS pitchers:
He is also in a good pitcher’s park in Oakland and has great recent advanced stats, as shown by his 22 percent hard-hit rate. His 5.8 K Prediction is merely average in this slate — the A’s have the second-lowest SO/AB at .192 tonight — but he definitely checks enough other boxes to warrant consideration.
If you’re interested in a huge moneyline but not interested in Lester, Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia might appeal to you, as he actually has him beat at -217 currently. Additionally, he has a superior matchup against the Braves, who are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.4 runs. He also has just as good of a park situation pitching at home, where he has an 81 Park Factor. Finally, he’s only $7,800 on FanDuel. However, there are some blemishes on his seemingly robust resume: He has a K Prediction of only 4.6 currently and he’s coming off a game in which he got absolutely crushed, allowing six earned runs in just 3.1 innings pitched. His Vegas data suggests safety, but his recent form screams the opposite.
Jeremy Hellickson’s salary is quite different depending on your site of preference: He is $9,300 on DraftKings, $2,400 more than Garcia. He is $7,300 on FanDuel, $500 fewer than Garcia. Very odd.
He’s in a seemingly decent spot tonight, pitching in San Diego, where he has a Park Factor of 81. He’s also third in the slate with a K Prediction of 7.3, behind only Thor and David Phelps. His advanced stats are very solid: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 24 percent in his last two starts, for example. Because of the divergence in his pricing, definitely get more of your exposure to him at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Dallas Keuchel faces the Rangers tonight, who are implied to score 3.7 runs currently. He has excellent advanced stats — he has induced ground balls at a 50 percent clip and allowed a hard-hit rate of 23 percent — but that’s pretty standard for Keuchel. He’s coming off a miserable outing against the Tigers in which he allowed two home runs and seven earned runs in five innings. He’s potentially right in the sweet spot for tournaments: His advanced stats suggest that was a fluky game, but his ownership will still likely dip because of recency bias.
The last pitcher I’ll mention is Jameson Taillon, who is facing a Reds team currently implied to score only 3.6 runs. Combine that with a 6.9 K Prediction — the fourth-highest mark in the slate — and his $7,400 price tag on FanDuel looks like a great value. He also boasts excellent recent advanced stats lately, specifically his 196-foot batted-ball distance, 88 MPH exit velocity, and 27 percent hard-hit rate.
Stacks
The Dodgers-Rockies series ended last night, but in sweeps the Marlins for their turn at Coors. As you would expect, they are the current highest-rated five-man DK stack in the Bales Model:
This game does bring weather concerns: At the time of writing, there is a 62 percent chance of precipitation at game time. Storms often pop up in Denver this time of year, so that may not be a death sentence, but definitely monitor the weather throughout the day using our Lineups page.
For FanDuel, we’ll remove the Coors teams. The top-rated stack belongs to the Astros, who are currently implied to score 4.9 runs:
Batters
Jake Lamb is projected to bat cleanup for the Diamondbacks, who are currently implied at 5.1 runs. He has elite splits versus righties: He has a .377 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .247 Isolated Power (ISO), and .531 slugging percentage in the last year. Somehow he’s only $2,800 on FanDuel, which makes very little sense given the situation and his recent form — back-to back games with a home run. He will be incredibly chalky tonight, but justifiably so.
Matt Carpenter is expected to return to the Cardinals lineup tonight and bat leadoff for them. The Cardinals are implied for 5.2 runs currently and his splits are even more elite than Lamb’s: His .434 wOBA, .314 ISO, and .626 slugging percentage versus righties are just unreal. The Cardinals bring a nice combination of projected runs and salary — as highlighted by their current 69 Team Value Rating on FanDuel — and Carpenter’s $3,400 price tag is a big part of that.
Good news: You don’t have to know how to pronounce Kirk Nieuwenhuis’ name in order to roster him in DFS. He’s projected to bat sixth for the Brewers, who face the Diamondbacks at Chase Field — historically the second-best park for hitters behind Coors Field. He has a .330 wOBA, .203 ISO, and .422 slugging percentage versus righties and has been absolutely crushing the ball lately, as shown by his 46 percent hard-hit rate. There are several high totals tonight — the Astros, Blue Jays, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Marlins, Cardinals, and Mariners are all currently implied for 4.8 runs or more — and the Brewers with Captain Kirk could be a sneaky stack option.
Daniel Murphy doesn’t need a long blurb. In fact, a picture of his player card will do just fine:
The Mariners face Tim Lincecum, who has the slate’s worst HR/9 mark at 2.679. That’s so bad that it’s actually pretty impressive. And it’s not getting any better recently: He has allowed at least one home run in each of his last seven starts and six combined in his last three. Robinson Cano is the Mariners’ best power hitter, as shown by his .229 ISO and .551 slugging against righties. Nori Aoki at the leadoff spot (Guillermo Heredia has been leading off against just lefties) is intriguing at $3,000 at FanDuel as well.
Jose Bautista faces KC righty Dillon Gee and his awful 1.618 WHIP tonight. Bautista is a no-splits guy, meaning he’s just as good against fellow right-handers as he is against lefties. He has a .384 wOBA, .265 ISO, and .513 against RHP in the last year — all excellent marks. He’s not in a great hitting park in Kansas City, but the Blue Jays are implied to score 4.8 runs currently. Perhaps they’ll go a bit overlooked as a result of their park situation.
Good luck tonight!
