Today already looks like one in which MLB DFS will be greatly affected by the weather: Currently 12 of the 15 games have a greater than 40 percent chance of precipitation. Katie Ledecky has been swimming so darn fast that she’s pushed the water all the way up here from Rio. [Editor’s Note: He’s back!]
Pitchers
Stephen Strasburg is currently a -270 moneyline favorite against the Braves. Very rarely do pitchers see that high of a number and, as you’d expect, they’ve historically done well under the circumstances (per our Trends tool):
The Braves are currently implied for 2.8 runs and Stras has an 8.3 K Prediction, the second-highest on the slate. He’s very expensive — $12,400 on DraftKings and $11,600 on FanDuel — but he is seemingly worth it. Our Plus/Minus metric, as I’m sure you know, is salary-based. Pitchers who are this much of a favorite on FanDuel are typically expensive and they still exceed those high expectations.
Jake Arrieta is playing in the slate’s only day game — the Cubs-Cardinals matchup begins at 2:20 PM ET — and the game is offered only on FanDuel in the all-day slate. He’s in a good spot, as the Cardinals are implied for only 3.1 runs and he has excellent advanced stats lately: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 180 feet and a line-drive rate of six percent in his last two starts. He’s also a heavy favorite at -200 currently.
In fact, there are actually three pitchers with moneylines of -200 or better today: Strasburg, Arrieta, and Boston’s David Price (-240). He faces the Diamondbacks today, who are currently implied for 3.7 runs, although they did crush Mets ace Noah Syndergaard just yesterday to the tune of nine runs. As mentioned yesterday, Thor had some concerning advanced stats. Price’s are much better: He has induced ground balls at a 60 percent clip in his last three outings. Although he hasn’t seen great results in those games — he had only 15 FD points last game against the Dodgers — his advanced stats suggest that a bounceback game is in order.
In the lower salary tier, young Baltimore righty Dylan Bundy is currently the second-highest rated FD pitcher in the Bales Model for the main slate. He has a tough matchup against the Giants — their projected lineup has a .306 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) — but he is at least facing them in San Francisco, which means that he has a perfect Park Factor of 100. He’s in great form: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of only 23 percent and a line-drive rate of 10 percent in his last two games. At only $7,400 on both sites, he could again exceed value by quite a bit:
Yu Darvish has been a strikeout monster lately, racking up 43 Ks in his last five games. He boasts the highest SO/9 in the last year of any pitcher today at 12.568 — yes, even higher than Strasburg. As expected, he holds the highest K Prediction at 8.9. He has also been in very good form lately, as evidenced by his near-elite 85 MPH exit velocity allowed in his last two starts. Although he’s a big favorite (-190 currently), the opposing Tigers are implied for 4.0 runs — which is more than the opponents of other stud pitchers are expected to score. For what it’s worth, I ran a trend to see how much that high implication would hurt him, given his positive indicators, and . . .
He’s a unique guy today.
Carlos Carrasco rebounded nicely last game against the Yankees after getting crushed by the Twins the game before, allowing eight earned runs in just 3.2 innings pitched — a -10 FD outing. Despite the nice game, however, his advanced stats are still bad due to the blowup: In those two games, he has averaged a batted-ball distance allowed of 243 feet. Only Seattle’s Ariel Miranda has a higher (worse) mark. Carrasco gets the Angels tonight, who are currently implied for 3.6 runs, and he faces them at home, where he holds a solid 73 Park Factor. He could be an interesting pivot in tournaments from Darvish, as they’re the same price ($9,700) on FanDuel.
A guy with an even better K Prediction (6.8), Park Factor (84), and FanDuel price ($6,600) is Oakland’s Sean Manaea. He faces a Seattle team currently implied for 3.8 runs and is a moderate favorite at -125. He has been subpar lately, both in results and advanced stats, allowing an awful 93 MPH exit velocity in his last two games. However, given his low price point across both sites — he’s only $6,800 on DK — he’s worth a shot in tournaments.
Right around that same low salary sits Dodgers righty Ross Stripling. Ross is an interesting DFS guy: He has a low 6.947 SO/9 rate and is thus predicted for only 5.5 strikeouts, but he does have an awesome matchup according to Vegas, as the Pirates are implied for only 3.3 runs currently. He had been working out of the bullpen until the Dodgers were forced to put him in the rotation a week ago against the Red Sox, and he did well, going five innings, striking out four, and allowing zero runs. He doesn’t have a lot of upside given his K potential and the likelihood that he won’t go far into the game, but at his price point — he’s only $5,000 at DK! — there are worse flyers to take.
The last guy I’ll mention is Colorado righty Jon Gray — cousin of Jon Snow, as not many people know — who is coming off a bad outing against the Marlins in which he scored -8.35 DK points. However, he was at Coors Field then. Today, he is not. He’s on the road against the Phillies, who are currently implied for 4.0 runs. The Phillies’ projected lineup actually has a sneaky-high wOBA of .317 — the fifth-highest mark and reflected in the run total — so this isn’t as easy of a matchup as it has previously been. However, Gray does have strikeout upside and he’ll be low-owned given the studs pitching today.
Stacks
The top-rated five-man DK stack in the Bales Model currently belongs to a 1-2-3-5-8 stack of the Red Sox:
However, this is a fluid situation, as Mookie Betts is day-to-day with calf stiffness. He’s in our projected lineup for now, but if he’s out it would certainly affect the upside of the Boston offense. Be sure to monitor the situation on our Lineups page throughout the day.
On FanDuel, the top-rated four-man stack belongs to the Rockies, who apparently don’t care anymore whether they’re playing at Coors or not:
Like Mookie, Carlos Gonzalez is questionable, although he did pinch hit last night — a good sign for his availability today. He’s in our projected lineup currently, and it seems like he’ll play, but because I’m generous and don’t want to provide only stacks with questionable guys, I’ll throw in a third stack.
There you go: A 1-5-7-8 Rangers stack, healthy as buttons. Check out today’s Trend of the Day for more information on end-of-the-order batters in good spots, like Moreland and Mazara.
Batters
Logan Forsythe is projected to hit leadoff for a Rays team currently implied for 4.2 runs. He has great splits against lefties (he faces CC Sabathia tonight): He boasts a .391 wOBA, .242 Isolated Power (ISO), and .563 slugging percentage. He has also been crushing the ball lately, as highlighted by his 53 percent hard-hit rate and three home runs in his last five games.
Nationals shortstop Trea Turner faces the Braves’ Michael Foltynewicz, who can definitely give up big games: His 1.611 HR/9 rate is always one of the worst in any slate. Turner hits righties very well: He has a .338 wOBA, .202 ISO, and .468 slugging percentage against them. He also has stolen-base upside, as seen by his .196 SB/G mark — a mark that actually undersells his raw speed.
Devon Travis is currently projected to bat leadoff for the Blue Jays, who are implied for 4.8 runs. Travis has unreal splits — a .413 wOBA, .240 ISO, and .575 slugging percentage against righties — but, more importantly, he’s just way too cheap. He’s only $3,100 on FanDuel.
Ryan Braun got the day off yesterday (just rest, no injury) but is back and projected to bat third as usual for the Brewers. He faces the Reds’ Homer Bailey, who has the second-worst WHIP today at 1.951 in the last year. Braun is a no-splits guy: He has a .391 wOBA, .224 ISO, and .539 slugging percentage against righties. He has been hitting a lot of ground balls lately (60 percent), but he has been hitting them hard (40 percent hard-hit rate). There’s risk, but also lots of reward.
Jose Altuve is projected to bat third for the Astros, who are currently implied to score 4.3 runs. He’s essentially another no-splits guy: He has a .459 wOBA, .241 ISO, and .624 slugging percentage — elite numbers. He also has stolen-base upside, as shown by his .210 SB/G mark in the last year. Basically the dude can do it all against all kinds of pitchers.
Good luck today!
