When six of the top-10 pitchers in the league by any standards all start in the same slate, who do you prioritize? Where do you even begin? That’s really the puzzle to solve tonight, especially since all six cost over $10,000 no matter which site you play on.
Jose Fernandez, MIA
Even in allowing six runs and lasting only 5.2 innings against the Braves on Saturday, Fernandez’s exit velocity allowed over the past 15 days is tied for top-two among pitchers. What’s more is that his matchup against the Reds this evening has the makeup for an easy one since their projected lineup is averaging .271 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB). Dig even further and you’ll notice that he’s only the 15th pitcher in the last three seasons that our K Predictor has projected to finish with more than 10 strikeouts, a trend that has historically led to a +6.45 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. It’s an immaculate spot seeing as how the Reds are also currently implied with the lowest Vegas total in this slate.
Chris Sale, CWS
Sale faces the Braves tonight, who are still the only team that have an Isolated Power (ISO) mark lower than .100 against left-handed pitching. Sale’s struggles seem to be a thing of the past, as he’s now exceeded salary-based expectations in four consecutive games, averaging a +7.08 Plus/Minus in that span. Given that Atlanta’s Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is also bottom-four tonight, Sale, who has a 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, should be looked at as the top option there. He’s more than viable at DraftKings despite the relative uptick in pricing, as well.
Noah Syndergaard, NYM
Syndergaard’s batted-ball distance allowed recently is the highest among pitchers grouped here, but he’s the only one of these six that’s already shown reverse line movement — the Mets’ implied Vegas total has increased 0.4 runs despite receiving only 39 percent of moneyline bets so far. He’s inexplicably seen a -$1,100 Salary Change at DraftKings since his last start, where he’s priced under $11,000 for the first time since May 1st. The value alone is worth chasing tonight.
Corey Kluber, CLE
Kluber arrived in Toronto on Sunday having allowed a menacing 165-foot batted-ball distance in his two starts prior, only to get shelled for seven hits and five earned runs over 3.1 innings. Fortunately, that’s one of the few blemishes on his record recently. Seeing as how the Yankees’ projected lineup is averaging .258 SO/AB, I would be quick to remember he had exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his eight performances before facing the Blue Jays. Even better is that he’ll likely be the lowest owned among this group given that start.
Stephen Strasburg, WSH
I worry about Strasburg because of the aforementioned reverse line movement against him, but his recent advanced stats remain the strongest of anyone tonight. For instance, although returning from injury in his last start, he limited the Reds to a 177-foot batted-ball distance, 27 feet lower than his yearly average. He’s also recorded the highest Consistency (both in the past month and past year), all the while producing the lowest past-month Dud rate among the pitchers listed here. With that kind of stability, he’s at least worthy of a flier in tournaments tonight, but can still be avoided in cash games.
Jake Arrieta, CHC
Whether you’re for or against him, Arrieta’s as polarizing as it gets in tournaments tonight. On one hand, you could roster him because of his big name and forego that he’s allowed a hard-hit rate 12 percentage points higher than that of his yearly average recently. That approach would put you in the minority (where you want to be for tournaments, anyhow), especially since he’s averaged a -12.87 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last three starts.
There’s also the option of stacking the Pirates against him, likely another move people will avoid since most fear that he’ll return to form soon. Either way, the fact that he’s a high-velocity pitcher that’s lost 1.2 miles per hour on his fastball in the past 15 days can’t be overlooked, as that’s historically led to a -1.36 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. No matter how you look at him, this situation is good for tournaments tonight.
If You Have to Have Coors
The Rockies are currently implied to score 6.4 runs, 0.6 more than the next team in this slate. Of course, stacking five hitters in their offense will allocate anywhere from 40 to 52 percent of your cap just towards them, leaving only $25,000 or so to be used for two pitchers and three remaining skill positions. Don’t even try fitting in two of the six aces listed above. You can’t. But here are a couple of value options if you just have to have your Coors Field fix.
(Note: Two of the following options combined with a Coors stack might also be the right approach for tournaments in this slate. If everyone chooses two A-list pitchers, then that clearly means they won’t be able to afford a majority of the Coors bats. Of course, winning big that way would also take the two cheaper options producing similar results to the aces this evening. Still, there are worse strategies on this slate.)
Collin McHugh, HOU
McHugh is known more for inducing ground balls rather than strikeouts. Still, it’s worth noting that Oakland’s implied total has sunk 0.4 runs so far since opening. With the Athletics’ projected lineup averaging the lowest wOBA among offenses tonight, McHugh is in a good spot to meet value. He also has Upside to exceed expectation given his 8.47 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) rate this season.
Scott Kazmir, LAD
Just note Kazmir’s last performance in which he recorded 10 strikeouts and finished with 35.1 DraftKings points. His salary has increased $2,700 since then, however, his opponent, the Padres, are still implied to score fewer runs than the offenses that Syndergaard, Kluber, and Strasburg face tonight. San Diego’s Team Value Rating remains bottom-three in this slate.
Jon Gray, COL
In his last four starts at Coors Field, Gray has averaged 22.78 DraftKings points, limiting his opponents to an average of 2.5 runs. His Upside this season is tied for top-five among pitchers tonight, proof that he’s more than capable of going above and beyond salary-based expectations.
Michael Wacha, STL
The Brewers’ .292 SO/AB rate outweighs their .287 wOBA, which always makes the opposing pitcher they face an enticing option. Wacha has also exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five starts, failing to record a single Dud in any performance over that time.
Cole Hamels, TEX
Hamels faces the Twins, whose .307 SO/AB rate is bottom-two in this slate. His salary at DraftKings plummeted $2,600 following his abysmal performance against them on Sunday, but that was the first time he had recorded a Dud in nearly two months. In his four starts prior to Sunday, he had averaged a +9.75 Plus/Minus at DraftKings.
Cheap Hitters
And for those that would rather take the pay-up-at-pitcher approach:
John Jaso, PIT
Jaso is one of the select few whose salary decreased $500 just because he’s facing Arrieta tonight. Now’s the time to take advantage since his .107 ISO differential is still top-10 among first basemen. He’s also averaged a batted-ball distance 17 feet farther than that of his yearly average in the past 15 days.
Derek Dietrich, MIA
Dan Straily, whom the Marlins face tonight, has allowed an exit velocity two MPH higher than the next pitcher over the last 15 days. Hitting sixth, Dietrich will likely garner little-to-no ownership despite having a .132 and .120 wOBA and ISO differential against right-handed pitching.
Neil Walker, NYM
Like the Pirates, Walker is one of many Mets whose salaries have been decreased simply because they’re facing Strasburg. And if their reverse line movement means anything, it’s a terrific spot to stack all those with positive differentials — Walker, especially, since he’s averaged a 226-foot batted-ball distance in the past 15 days.
Nick Franklin, TB
Only Danny Espinosa has averaged a batted-ball distance farther than Franklin among shortstops in the last 15 days. Additionally, Franklin’s .147 ISO differential is ranked top-two at his position.
Robbie Grossman, MIN
If you’re of the belief that Hamels’ last performance wasn’t a fluke, note that Grossman, who’s slugging .579 against left-handed pitching, has a 75 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. He also has a .076 wOBA differential against said handedness.
Good luck!
