Today’s 7:05 PM ET main slate features 15 games. It’s a huge one, so let’s dive in.
Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner is $2,400 more than any other pitcher on FanDuel, yet he still currently sits as the highest-rated pitcher in the FD Bales Model. He is certainly an intriguing play, as his stats don’t align with what we’d want out of a $11,500 sure-fire stud. He is only marginally a favorite right now with a -110 moneyline and the opposing Yankees currently have an implied Vegas total of 3.5 runs — a good mark but one that is comparable to the opponent totals of much cheaper pitchers. However, Bum does have strikeout upside that no one else can rival: His K Prediction of 8.1 is easily the highest mark of the night.
The pitcher with the best Vegas data is Pirates righty Gerrit Cole, set to face the Phillies. Cole is a massive favorite currently at -225 and the Phillies are implied to score only 3.2 runs. Those two factors, by themselves, are hugely valuable for FanDuel pitchers (per our Trends tool):
Cole is actually a better bargain at DraftKings at $7,400, as shown by his 81 Bargain Rating there. He also boasts a 90 Park Factor pitching at home. He’s the highest-rated DK pitcher currently in the Bales Model.
Possible pivots away from Cole are Danny Duffy and Tanner Roark in that similarly good spots and price points. The Roark is actually a slightly higher favorite currently (-227) and is the biggest favorite on the slate. He faces the Padres, who have given up big games to pitchers and are implied to score only 3.6 runs. Duffy is only a marginal favorite (-107) and the opposing Rangers are implied to score 3.8 runs right now, but he does have a much higher K Prediction at 7.1 than that of either Roark or Cole.
Jason Hammel hasn’t exactly lit up the world in the last month, as shown by his 25 percent Consistency on FanDuel in that time. However, he did have a nice outing last game, scoring 48 FD points against the Rangers. Most importantly, tonight he faces the Brewers, whose slate-high .324 SO/AB rate is laughably bad. They’re implied to score only 3.7 runs currently. Hammel also boasts some of the most excellent advanced stats in the slate tonight: His 164-foot recent batted-ball distance allowed is elite, as are his incredibly low eight percent recent hard-hit rate allowed and recent exit velocity allowed of 83 miles per hour. He’s in great form, at least in the last two contests.
Lastly, if you want to dip even farther into the bargain bin, Sean Manaea is only $6,200 on FanDuel and pitching in a pitcher’s park, as shown by his 83 Park Factor at Oakland Coliseum. Manaea isn’t a stellar play by any means — he’s only a small favorite (-118) and has a low K Prediction of 5.6, for example. However, he’s $6,200. At that price, simply being a favorite (even if a small one) and having an implied opponent run total of under four will do the trick.
Stacks
Although the Braves and Rockies are playing at Coors Field tonight, it’s actually the Red Sox that are currently implied to score the most runs at 6.2. Not coincidentally, they are the top-rated DraftKings stack in the Bales Model:
Since it’s Friday and we can get a little wacky, let’s do a wacky stack. If you’re tired of Coors-dominated slates or perhaps you just love the American League, here’s the top-rated (non-Boston) FanDuel stack in the Bales Model for the ‘AL Only’ slate.
At the top currently sits an unconventional 1-2-5-8 Indians stack, which actually kind of leads me into something I’d like to discuss . . .
Other Hitters
Today we will be posting a podcast in which Jay Persson and I break down this past Wednesday’s $3 DraftKings Moonshot guaranteed prize pool. In it, we discuss the contrarian strategy of pivoting away from one player and toward another when the second option plays the same position and bats lower in the order. For tonight and for Wednesday’s GPP, Hanley Ramirez is the ultimate example of the same-position, lower-in-the-order pivot play. Both he and David Ortiz have ‘1B’ eligibility and they hit fifth and fourth, respectively, for the Red Sox.
Ortiz is always a chalky, amazing play: He has a .475 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .395 Isolated Power (ISO), and .736 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, Hanley has only a .321 wOBA, .133 ISO, and .396 slugging. You can roster only one, and it’s painfully obvious which one that ‘should’ be . . . unless you’re in tournaments, where you can get exposure to the immense upside of the Red Sox potent offense while also being contrarian. It’s the best of both worlds!
The Nationals are implied to score 5.5 runs currently — a mark that rivals the total of the Rockies (5.7) and surpasses that of the Braves (4.8) — so there are quite a few intriguing options here. Bryce Harper is always compelling because he’s #good, but Daniel Murphy — projected to hit third for the Nats — is right there with him. He has a .401 wOBA, .254 ISO, and 588 slugging percentage versus righties and faces Luis Perdomo, who has allowed the third-most HR/9 (1.460) in this slate.
Speaking of pitchers who allow lots of home runs, White Sox pitcher Jacob Turner easily has the worst HR/9 mark (4.500) in the slate. That is mostly due to his one-game sample, in which he allowed (or had forced upon him) eight earned runs and two home runs in just four innings — but not all one-game samples are too small to interpret. For the Tigers, Miguel Cabrera is always an option, as well as Ian Kinsler. The latter is perhaps more intriguing in tournaments, as he has negative splits against righties. However, negative splits probably matter against only, you know, good righty pitchers.
The Cubs could be a refreshing lower-owned option tonight as alternatives to the Rockies, Braves, and Red Sox. They’re implied to score 4.8 runs currently and/but are facing Milwaukee pitcher Jimmy Nelson, who is coming off a really nice outing in which he scored 54 FD points versus the Reds. That makes the Cubs a high-upside contrarian stacking option of which Anthony Rizzo is a core piece: His .424 wOBA, .298 ISO, and .601 slugging percentage against righties are elite marks. He also boasts eight Pro Trends currently for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Happy Friday and good luck!
