An Obvious Trend
Matt Shoemaker and Julio Urias enter the slate respectively averaging 8.4 to 11.59 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9). Using our free Trends tool, we can screen for pitchers using those SO/9 marks as our lower and upper bounds. Unsurprisingly, pitchers who fall within those limits do well on DraftKings, averaging a +1.26 Plus/Minus.
And that makes sense, right? DraftKings and FanDuel award two and three points respectively for each strikeout, making it perhaps the most important production factor for DFS purposes. When a high-strikeout pitcher gives up some runs, his strikeouts can counterbalance the fantasy points he has lost. And if he doesn’t give up runs, then his strikeouts give him a reasonable chance of reaching his Upside.
As for this slate, you’ll notice that 13 pitchers have averaged at least 8.40 SO/9. Using our K Predictor to narrow down this cohort, we can find a core group of pitchers with high ceilings. Within this group, if we screen for pitchers projected for at least six strikeouts in the slate, we’ll find that the six remaining pitchers match for a trend that yields a +2.00 Plus/Minus at DraftKings.
We’ll talk about these six pitchers in a little bit. First, let’s look at a few pitchers who didn’t make the cut.
Left Behind, Not Forgotten
Julio Urias has recorded seven strikeouts in back-to-back performances but is predicted with only five tonight. Of course, he hasn’t pitched beyond 5.1 innings in any outing yet, so his low K prediction makes sense. The Brewers’ projected lineup is averaging an enticing .271 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), but Urias’ recent 234-foot batted-ball distance allowed is bottom-five among pitchers in this slate (per our advanced stats). He has also experienced a +$2,100 Salary Change at DraftKings, now implying that should he score at least 14.67 points in order to meet salary-based expectations.
Matt Harvey and Matt Shoemaker are the more controversial pitchers on this list. Harvey is predicted with 4.6 strikeouts tonight, which makes sense given the Braves’ .188 SO/AB. In fact, no offense is projected with fewer strikeouts this evening. But Harvey arguably still warrants exposure since Atlanta is implied to score 0.4 fewer runs than any other team in the slate. He has also allowed an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour over his last two starts, which is the best among available pitchers.
As for Shoemaker, he’s predicted with 5.4 strikeouts despite averaging 9.6 over his last five starts — a span in which he has simultaneously produced a +16.92 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. But Oakland has one of the five best strikeout rates against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, Shoemaker has allowed a batted-ball distance 29 feet farther than his yearly average in the last 15 days.
Those Who Made the Cut
Robbie Ray, ARI – 9.74 SO/9, 7.7 K Pred
Ray has quietly recorded at least six strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. But his fantasy results haven’t been as consistent, as noted by his 25-percent Dud rate this year. Still, predicted to record the most strikeouts this evening, Ray has an opportunity to flourish against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has a bottom-seven Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).
Chris Archer, TB – 10.61 SO/9, 6.8 K Pred
Archer has proven that he can stack strikeouts with the best of them — he has 12 and eight in his last two starts — but there’s cause for concern here, despite his predicted 6.8 tonight. First and foremost, he has recently allowed a batted-ball distance 24 feet farther than his yearly average. The Giants projected lineup is also averaging only .212 SO/AB. And, as if that weren’t enough, he has received only 26 percent of moneyline bets. Fortunately for Archer, San Francisco is currently implied to score only 3.6 runs. As long as he surpasses his K prediction, 3.6 runs (or anything fewer, for that matter) wouldn’t be too much of a concern.
Michael Fulmer, DET – 8.91 SO/9, 6.7 K Pred
Not only has Fulmer recorded a 100-percent Consistency in his last five starts, but he also has a +12.40 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span, as well. But that’s at DraftKings, where he has experienced a +$1,600 Salary Change since his last start. At FanDuel, Fulmer has a 98-percent Bargain Rating. So even if he isn’t able to reach his predicted 6.7 strikeouts, Fulmer should still have a reasonable chance of providing value there.
Consistency, Bargain Rating, Salary Change, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Aaron Sanchez, TOR – 8.52 SO/9, 6.3 K Pred
Sanchez’s last start against Baltimore was coincidentally the last time he failed to meet expectations in his last five outings. He recorded a +9.70 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in the previous four. Now predicted to record the fourth-most strikeouts tonight, Sanchez has a 76-percent Consistency over the last year that trails only Fulmer’s among qualified starters tonight.
Jon Gray, COL – 10 SO/9, 6.2 K Pred
Gray not only has the highest Park Factor among pitchers tonight. He also has received 69 percent of moneyline bets. It bodes well that he’ll be facing the Marlins, whose projected lineup has a lowly .285 wOBA in a pitcher’s park. Gray’s 10 SO/9 is certainly worth owning at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Lance McCullers, HOU – 9.77 SO/9, 6 K Pred
Only John Gant and Christian Friedrich have allowed a lower batted-ball distance than McCullers’ in the past 15 days. Neither of the former, however, has as many Pro Trends as McCullers, who’s tied with Archer and Harvey for the most at the position. Note that Cincinnati’s projected lineup is also averaging .259 SO/AB.
Hitters Against Not-So-Heavy Strikeout Pitchers
Welington Castillo, ARI
Castillo’s .618 slugging percentage among catchers is at least .068 higher than that of any other catcher. What’s more is that Adam Morgan’s 94-MPH exit velocity allowed is tied with Shoemaker’s and Masahiro Tanaka’s for the highest over the last 15 days.
Marwin Gonzalez, HOU
The Astros are implied to score the most runs tonight, but Gonzalez should still be one of their lesser-owned players. With his .095 Isolated Power (ISO) Differential, Gonzalez is in a terrific spot. He has also recorded a hard-hit rate 16 percentage points higher than his yearly average in the last 15 days.
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Rodriguez’s 185-foot batted-ball distance of late isn’t anywhere near the highest at his position. Still, his .085 and .089 wOBA and ISO Differentials are top-10 among third basemen. His .559 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching is top-four.
Corey Seager, LAD
Seager’s .538 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching trails only Tim Anderson’s, Greg Garcia’s, and Manny Machado’s among shortstops — but, on the plus side, his recent batted-ball distance is 21 feet farther than any of theirs. His .241 ISO is also top-four at his position.
Shin-Soo Choo, TEX
Choo has played only three games since returning, but note his 98-MPH exit velocity in those starts. He’s also slugging .522 against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, Michael Wacha has averaged only 6.9 DraftKings points over his last five starts.
Ryan Raburn, COL
Raburn has a .583 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching, but that’s not his only standout peripheral. He has also averaged a batted-ball distance 16 feet farther than his yearly average over the last 15 days.
Good luck!
