Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Steven Matz, NYM
Chicago’s projected .241 strikeouts per at-bat rate is admittedly subpar in comparison to other offenses today. Still, not even Jake Arrieta can claim the same Consistency that Matz has produced this month. Not only is he one of just two pitchers to have exceeded salary-based expectations in 100 percent of games over that span, but his 78 percent Consistency on the season is actually six percent higher than Arrieta’s. Matz’s line-drive percentage allowed following the extended rest he received just two weeks ago also sits at a mere five percent.
Jose Fernandez has averaged 2.3 more DraftKings points than Matz in the last month, but the latter’s recent Plus/Minus still emphasizes just how reliable he’s been:
Aaron Nola, PHI
Opponents have averaged a batted-ball distance 32 feet shorter against Nola over the last 15 days. The overall batted-ball distance he’s allowed in that span is also 26 feet shorter than any other pitcher today. Joe Ross (whom the Phillies are facing) is implied to allow 0.3 fewer runs, but note that Nola and his 8.67 strikeouts per nine innings rate — 0.81 more than Ross — costs only $800 more at FanDuel. In fact, Nola’s 94 percent Bargain Rating at FD has actually allowed him to produce an 80 percent Consistency in May, whereas he’s met expectations in only 40 percent of his outings at DraftKings (due to a $2,100 increase in salary over that time).
Despite his standout peripherals, however, it should still be noted that Nola has received only 28 percent of moneyline bets tonight. That unfortunately affects his value at FanDuel (despite the discount), seeing as 12 points for a win is still a very big deal.
Gerrit Cole, PIT
The Pirates might be facing Jose Fernandez tonight, but it’s Cole who’s actually received 53 percent of moneyline bets. He’s also limited opponents to a measly 0.46 HR/9 in the past year, second only to Arrieta’s 0.27. If anything, take comfort in knowing that only Arrieta and Matz have produced a better Dud percentage than Cole this season. Opposing hitters have also notably hit the ball seven percent softer against him in the last 15 days. It’s actually a plus for Cole’s Upside if Giancarlo Stanton (questionable) returns tonight, seeing as he’s struck out in 34.7 percent of his at-bats against right-handers this year.
Pitchers to Exploit
Jon Moscot, CIN
Moscot hasn’t started in over a month, but his -4.0 Plus/Minus this season trails only Eric Surkamp’s (-8.6), Dillon Gee’s (-6.6), and Wily Peralta’s (-5.4) tonight. Just being implied to allow over 6.0 runs, note that Moscot begins the evening with a -1.71 Plus/Minus handicap (which can be seen in our free Trends tool). His 2.04 HR/9 rate is considered more of a sacrifice than statistic given the Rockies’ projected .310 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).
Eric Surkamp, OAK
The most DraftKings points Surkamp has been implied to score at any time over the last month has been 12.36, and yet he’s somehow produced a Dud in 100 percent of those outings. His 2.34 HR/9 rate is also far-and-away the highest allowed in the past year. Minnesota’s .268 wOBA versus left-handed pitching is only .007 higher than Atlanta’s (who is duly noted as the worst against southpaws), but Surkamp has hysterically averaged -0.2 DraftKings points (not a mistype) in his last five starts.
Anibal Sanchez, DET
The Angels’ projected .311 wOBA is certainly terrifying, but they simultaneously don’t strikeout against righties. Just note their .205 SO/AB, the lowest of any team tonight. Opponents have also recently knocked around Sanchez for a batted-ball distance 16 feet farther than his yearly average. As if his 1.80 HR/9 rate wasn’t bad enough, Sanchez has averaged only 9.3 DraftKings points over his last five games.
C
Buster Posey, SF
Despite negative Differentials versus right-handed pitching, Posey’s recent 235-foot batted-ball distance is still the highest among starting catchers. His hard-hit rate in that span joins David Ross’ as the only two above 50 percent. If anything, Posey remains as reliable as any in cash games given that his 52 percent Consistency this month is the highest among starters.
1B
Matt Adams, STL
Not only has Adams hit the ball farther than any other first baseman over the last 15 days, his 96-MPH exit velocity in that span is also the highest. Adams’ 59 percent hard-hit rate stands second at his position behind Steve Pearce. His nine Pro Trends (two more than Brandon Moss, Chris Davis, and Justin Bour) are in as good of a spot as any given Wily Peralta’s 1.30 HR/9 rate tonight.
Joey Votto, CIN
Jon Gray’s 9.90 SO/9 is proof that he has as much Upside as anyone tonight, but note that he’s allowed 1.37 more HR/9 to left-handed batters this season. Votto has also recorded double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
2B
Ian Kinsler, DET
Kinsler’s batted-ball distance in the last 15 days is 19 feet farther than any other starter. His .590 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching is also top-two despite Detroit’s overall woes against said handedness. With a .078 wOBA Differential tonight, Kinsler is easily one of the more likely options to exploit Hector Santiago’s 1.81 HR/9 allowed.
Robinson Cano, SEA
Cano is available only in the All Day slate, but his .576 slugging percentage and .105 ISO Differential are elite marks. It’s likely to be a rough day for James Shields no matter since he’s allowed a 228-foot batted-ball distance over his last two starts.
3B
Matt Carpenter, STL
Carpenter’s .378 wOBA and .258 ISO are certainly respectable, but his standout peripherals don’t stop there. He’s also one of only two at his position with double-digit Pro Trends. The fact that Wily Peralta has allowed the highest line-drive percentage of late is only a plus for Carpenter, whose recent 96-MPH exit velocity is the highest among third basemen.
SS
Brandon Crawford, SF
Crawford’s 8.8 DraftKings points in the last month may not seem like much, but it’s actually the same as Trevor Story, who costs $1,900 more. And as it pertains to tonight, Crawford’s .134 ISO Differential is notably the highest among shortstops. Matt Wisler being the lowest-rated pitcher in our Bales Model is only a plus.
Brad Miller, TB
Miller’s .113 ISO Differential tonight is second only to Crawford’s. Miller is really only priced appropriately at FanDuel (where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating), but he is viable across sites given Dillon Gee’s slate-high hard-hit percentage allowed this season. Miller’s 11.6 DraftKings PPG this month is also top-seven among shortstops.
OF
Carlos Gonzalez, COL
It’s all suddenly clicking for Gonzalez, as he has hit one out the park in four of his last five games, including three straight. Now set to face Jon Moscot, note Gonzalez’s immaculate .189 and .194 wOBA and ISO Differentials against right-handed pitching. His .428 wOBA as a whole is also top-three among outfielders despite carrying a 95 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
Michael Saunders, TOR
CC Sabathia has been nothing short of spectacular in his past three outings, but Saunders is still slugging .647 versus left-handed pitching. He’s also hit the ball 16 percent harder over the last 15 days. Take comfort in knowing that Saunders is also the only outfielder with double-digit Pro Trends this evening.
Robbie Grossman, MIN
Grossman costs the absolute minimum at FanDuel, which is all too cheap for someone who’s produced a 66 percent Consistency since being called up. His .640 wOBA against southpaws also has a .197 differential over Bryce Harper’s, the next closest at his position. Grossman’s whopping .417 ISO Differential is also the highest of anyone in tonight’s player pool.
Matt Holliday, STL
Holliday’s 93 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is a steal against Wily Peralta. Holliday’s recent batted-ball distance is average, but his .110 ISO Differential stands out despite averaging only 9.6 DraftKings points in the last month.
Weather Watch
There’s an outside chance thunderstorms postpone Rays-Royals tonight, but percentages are still less than average. Just monitor it up until lineup lock as we’ll have a better idea then.
Good luck!
