Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner, SF
Bumgarner’s 68 percent Consistency this season ordinarily makes him a top option, but this slate only intensifies that. After all, he’s averaged 8.1 more DraftKings points than any other pitcher over the last month. It also helps that Atlanta is duly noted as being the absolute worst team versus left-handed pitching, as shown by their league-low .259 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and .084 Isolated Power (ISO) marks. The Braves’ projected .225 strikeouts per at-bat isn’t all too high, but Bumgarner’s 10.58 strikeouts per nine innings can certainly force the issue.
Matt Moore, TB
Moore’s 1.56 WHIP is concerning, but Minnesota’s 8.8 percent walk rate against lefties is middle of the road. What really makes Moore stand out is the Twins’ projected .257 SO/AB. Opponents have also averaged a batted-ball distance 20 feet shorter against Moore in the last 15 days. As for his overall batted-ball distance allowed in that span, only Alfredo Simon has limited opposing offenses to a shorter total.
Chase Anderson, MIL
Anderson’s salary has inexplicably climbed $1,200 since his last performance at DraftKings. At FanDuel, however, he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He’s also averaged 25 FanDuel points over the last month, which trails only Wade Miley (29.4), Rick Porcello (27.6), Matt Boyd (27), and Wei-Yin Chen (26.4) in the Main slate. Jerad Eickhoff is admittedly the highest-rated pitcher in our Bales Model tonight, but note that Anderson has allowed an equivalent exit velocity to the former over their last two starts.
Pitchers to Exploit
Ubaldo Jimenez, BAL
Only Aaron Blair and Julio Urias have produced fewer DraftKings points than Jimenez recently. Unlike Jimenez, however, neither have to face Boston’s projected .335 wOBA tonight. His 46 Park Factor rating is already considered a red flag, but also note that he’s received only nine percent of moneyline bets so far. With all that in mind, Jimenez’s 80 percent Dud rate this month should come as no surprise.
Wade Miley, SEA
San Diego’s projected .300 SO/AB gives Miley outs to ultimately match his 12 percent Upside, but his recent performance outweighs any negatives the Padres might have. For example, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance nine feet farther than anyone else in the last 15 days. Opponents have also recorded a hard-hit rate 27 percent harder against him in that span. And if that weren’t enough, his 94-MPH exit velocity allowed is the highest in tonight’s Main slate. Despite their projected .266 wOBA, note that San Diego has quietly produced a .161 ISO against left-handed pitching this season.
C
Tony Wolters, COL
Alfredo Simon, the lowest-rated pitcher in our Bales Model today, wasn’t mentioned in the Exploit section if only because numerous plays against him will be listed at each position. The Rockies are also implied to score six-plus runs for the third consecutive night. Wolters has admittedly hit the ball 32 feet shorter recently, but his 53 percent Consistency this month is third-highest among catchers. His .136 wOBA Differential is conveniently the highest.
1B
David Ortiz, BOS
Ortiz is once again tied with one other player (in this case, Mookie Betts) for being the most expensive skill position at DraftKings, but his .688 slugging percentage can’t be denied. He’s also averaged 3.3 more DraftKings points than Miguel Cabrera over the last 24 games. His salary has fluctuated between $4,000 to $5,500 in that span, but Ortiz has still amazingly exceeded salary-based expectations in 62 percent of said performances.
Carlos Santana, CLE
Santana’s .434 slugging percentage admittedly isn’t as high as others at his position, but at least he’s hit the ball nine percent harder in the last 15 days. He also has the benefit of hitting leadoff, which has historically given players a +0.61 bump in Plus/Minus (which can be seen using our free Trends tool).
2B
Joe Panik, SF
Panik has produced a batted-ball distance equivalent to DJ LeMahieu in the past 15 days despite costing $700 less. And as it pertains to today, note Panik’s .081 and .094 wOBA and ISO Differentials. Most players will lean on LeMahieu in a Rockies stack (and rightfully so), but it’s Aaron Blair who has averaged only 0.1 DraftKings points over the last month.
3B
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Set to face a lefty tonight, note that Rodriguez’s .552 slugging percentage is behind only Nolan Arenado’s (.578) and Manny Machado’s (.574) in this slate. His .407 wOBA is second only to Javier Baez’s (.423). Rodriguez has produced sporadic results since returning from injury, but it bodes well that he’s at least recorded a 50 percent hard-hit rate in that span.
Travis Shaw, BOS
Shaw’s -.055 ISO Differential is one of the worst among third basemen, but his .197 ISO remains respectable. He also has as many Pro Trends as Nolan Arenado tonight. But it doesn’t end there: Shaw has actually averaged 0.5 more DraftKings points than Arenado over the last month despite being priced $1,100 cheaper. Shaw’s Consistency is also 20 percent greater than Arenado’s in that span.
SS
Zack Cozart, CIN
Cozart has slightly negative differentials against right-handed pitching, but his .503 slugging percentage is still fourth-highest at his position. Forget about his 189-foot batted-ball distance of late and focus on the fact that he’s recently produced a 33 percent fly-ball rate. A fly-ball percentage greater than 30 has historically led to a +1.53 Plus/Minus at Coors Field.
OF
Carlos Gonzalez, COL
Gonzalez can once again be prioritized among Colorado’s lineup given his .646 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. His .156 and .142 wOBA and ISO Differentials against said handedness are more notably top-three at his position. His .427 wOBA, however, remains the highest.
Adam Duvall, CIN
Duvall’s 11 Pro Trends are tied with David Ortiz and Daniel Descalso for the most in tonight’s player pool. But Duvall’s 238-foot batted-ball distance is actually three feet farther than Ortiz’s in the past 15 days. Duvall is also averaging .079 home runs per at-bat, second only to Giancarlo Stanton at their respective position.
Mookie Betts, BOS
Betts isn’t an option simply because he’s hit five home runs in his last eight at-bats (although that isn’t being overlooked). He’s also averaged more DraftKings points than any other outfielder over the last month. And despite being priced around $5,000 over that time, he’s somehow managed a 55 percent Consistency. If anything, consider Betts a value at FanDuel, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Robbie Grossman, MIN
This slate lacks viable cheap options, but that’s where Grossman’s minimum salary at DraftKings comes in. Not only is he a value, but he’s also slugging .600 against left-handed pitching. He’s also averaged 9.7 DraftKings points since being called up, which is third-highest among outfielders.
Weather Watch
There is nothing to worry about today since the only games with legitimate weather concerns are being played indoors.
Good luck!
