Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Jake Arrieta, CHC
The Braves are projected with only .221 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB) today, but they’re still implied to score 1.2 fewer runs than any other team in the early slate is, and a lot of that has to do with Arrieta. Outpacing every other pitcher in the slate by at least 7.3 DraftKings points, he also is the only pitcher on the day with double-digit Pro Trends and is being backed by 90 percent of moneyline bets. Per our advanced stats, his exit velocity allowed of 86 miles per hour over the last 15 days is certainly good enough to get the job done regardless of the format.
Mike Fiers, HOU
Fiers’ 1.38 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) allowed in the past year make him something of a risky play. Still, he’s relatively inexpensive and higher implied totals are the norm in this early slate. And at least Tampa Bay’s projected .316 SO/AB affords Fiers some Upside. He also has a 91 Park Factor, which is the highest in the early slate.
Upside, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Jose Fernandez, MIA
Over his last six games, Fernandez has produced a +14.73 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. In fact, his one-month average of 35.8 DraftKings points not only leads all pitchers today but also trails Kershaw’s average by just 1.65 points in that span. It also helps that the Diamondbacks are projected with .285 SO/AB tonight. With a 93-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Fernandez is an especially great start there but also can be rostered on DraftKings without trepidation.
James Paxton, SEA
Paxton has allowed 2.06 HR/9 in the last year, but he has notably averaged 2.19 more SO/9 than Jose Fernandez, negating the extra runs that Paxton might allow. He has also received 57 percent of moneyline bets tonight. The Rangers have a projected .311 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against left-handed pitching, but note that their implied total has already dropped 0.3 runs since opening.
Pitchers to Exploit
Erik Johnson, SD
It’s technically Johnson’s debut for San Diego, but if you recall he started two games earlier in the season for the White Sox, allowing 2.57 HR/9 in the process. And, for the second game in a row, the Rockies have an implied total of at least seven runs, currently sitting at 7.3 for tonight. With a 1.51 WHIP, Johnson at Coors Field should be exploited by Colorado’s hitters in one fashion or another.
Mike Wright, BAL
In the all-day and early slates, Wright is the lowest-Rated pitcher in our Bales Model. Furthermore, Toronto’s 83 Team Value Rating trails only Colorado’s (88) today. Over the last 15 days, Wright has ‘limited’ opponents to a 215-foot batted-ball distance allowed, and he has a slate-low Consistency of 20 percent at DraftKings. Finally, he has allowed 1.70 HR/9 over the last year.
Francisco Liriano, PIT
Liriano has failed to meet salary-based expectations in each of his last five games, averaging six DraftKings points in that span. His 9.44 SO/9 is third-highest among pitchers in the main slate, but the Cardinals lead the slate with a projected .331 wOBA. Also, opponents have averaged a batted-ball distance 27 feet farther against Liriano in the last two weeks. He has received 69 percent of moneyline bets so far, but his slate-high exit velocity allowed is still a concern.
C
Derek Norris, SD
Norris’ wOBA and Isolated Power (ISO) Differentials are both negative against right-handed pitching, but he’s still averaging a 235-foot batted ball distance as of late. The 11-MPH winds blowing out to left field at Coors should only assist his 32-percent fly-ball rate, as well.
Buster Posey, SF
Chris Herrmann has averaged 0.8 more DraftKings points than Posey in the past month, but Herrmann also has to face Jose Fernandez today. Posey, on the other hand, has a .521 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching. His 96-MPH exit velocity in the past 15 days is also the highest among starting catchers tonight.
1B
David Ortiz, BOS
If you want to roster Ortiz for cheap(er), look to his 96-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. On either platform, he’s a tremendous option, since his .705 slugging percentage and double-digit Pro Trends are both the highest at his position. It bodes well for Boston as a whole that Kyle Gibson has received only 18 percent of moneyline bets this afternoon.
Carlos Santana, CLE
Expected to return to leadoff now that the Indians are facing a righty, Santana has a solid .106 ISO Differential in tonight’s main slate. He’s also a valuable option, with a 91-percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. His .212 ISO is notably the same as Miguel Cabrera’s at this time.
2B
DJ LeMahieu, COL
LeMahieu is the most expensive second basemen in the early slate, but no one at the position has a higher exit velocity in the last 15 days. LeMahieu’s .389 slugging isn’t particularly impressive, but Johnson’s aforementioned 1.51 WHIP should enable him to improve his average of 1.61 stolen bases per game. His 12 Pro Trends are also the highest among starting second basemen.
Derek Dietrich, MIA
Regardless of whether Dietrich hits leadoff (although he’s expected to), the fact that he costs only $800 above minimum at FanDuel is reason enough to roster him. Also, his .106 ISO Differential is second only to Chase Utley’s (.113) in the main slate, and Dietrich actually has surpassed Utley with a higher slugging percentage and 30-day Consistency.
3B
Brett Wallace, SD
Wallace costs $2,400 less than Nolan Arenado at DraftKings but has a comparable exit velocity over the last 15 days. Wallace’s batted-ball distance in that span is only six feet shorter than Arenado’s, as well. Arenado has averaged 3.7 more DraftKings points in the past month, but Wallace’s 45-percent Consistency actually gives him the edge there by 16 percentage points.
Matt Carpenter, STL
It’s not great that Carpenter has a -0.065 ISO Differential, but his average of 0.051 home runs per at-bat (HR/AB) — the third-highest total at the position in the main slate — makes him a viable option. Additionally, the two third basemen with higher HR/AB averages actually trail Carpenter in recent batted-ball distance and exit velocity. Over his last 23 games, he’s averaging 10.6 DraftKings points, which is the highest among starters in that span.
SS
Eduardo Nunez, MIN
Despite having a +5.07 Plus/Minus at FanDuel over his last 10 games, Nunez has experienced a -$200 Salary Change due to the results of his last two games. Frankly, that’s ridiculous, given that his .628 slugging percentage is a whole .060 higher than Trevor Story’s. Additionally, his .199 ISO Differential today is the highest among shortstops.
Jhonny Peralta, STL
It’s been only three games, but Peralta’s batted-ball distance since being activated trails only Corey Seager’s (247 feet) and Gregorio Petit’s (233 feet) in the main slate. He has an 86-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, but note that he’s eligible as only a third baseman there. But even with the higher relative price at DraftKings, Peralta’s .087 ISO Differential versus left-handed pitching makes him a viable option.
OF
Carlos Gonzalez, COL
If the Rockies continue to face right-handed pitchers and have implied totals of at least seven runs, then Gonzalez, who has a .655 slugging percentage against said handedness, will be an option. Over the last 10 days, he has a 254-foot batted-ball distance. And as if his .428 wOBA weren’t enough, he leads the day with 15 Pro Trends.
Curtis Granderson, NYM
Both Granderson and teammate Michael Conforto are slugging at least .520 against right-handed pitching, but it’s the former who has a 99-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. Granderson’s batted-ball distance in the last 15 days is also 23 feet farther than Conforto’s in that time.
Robbie Grossman, MIN
Only Jarrett Parker, who’s slugging .850 against left-handed pitching, has a higher slugging percentage today than Grossman’s .731. It’s Grossman, however, who over the last month has averaged 2.3 more points at DraftKings, where in that span he has also produced a +3.03 Plus/Minus with 63-percent Consistency.
Adam Duvall, CIN
Duvall and Jay Bruce warrant stacking today, but if you’re choosing only one then note that the former’s ISO Differential is .021 higher. Duvall also has a .618 slugging percentage against right-handers, which is a whopping .081 greater than Bruce’s. Both are priced similarly, but Duvall has produced 0.9 more DraftKings points in the last month despite having the same Consistency (52 percent) as Bruce in that span.
Seth Smith, SEA
Despite recording a -3.13 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last six starts, Smith in his last 11 games has a top-four batted-ball distance among outfielders in the main slate. His 94-MPH exit velocity in that span is tied for fifth-overall with Ian Desmond’s and Matt Holliday’s. It bodes well for the entirety of Seattle that Colby Lewis is the lowest-Rated pitcher in our Bales Model this evening.
Weather Watch
Thunderstorms might interfere with Royals-White Sox mid-play, but it would be for only a limited period. All hitters (and likely even pitchers) in that matchup should be safe. Tigers-Yankees, on the other hand, could be postponed entirely. If not, expect at least one delay prior to first pitch.
Good luck!
