In the MLB DFS Recent Form Report, I will continue ‘Sheriff’ Bill Monighetti’s process of creating trends with filters listed under the “Adv Stats – Recent” heading of our free Trends tool. I am looking for players whose recent play has not shown up in their stats or whose production has been exceeding or falling short of expectations. The MLB DFS Recent Form Report is released on Monday morning each week.
Pitchers
Here’s Johnny!
Johnny Cueto’s recent advanced data is pretty eye-popping. His average batted-ball distance allowed in the past 15 days is 179 feet and his exit velocity is 87 MPH — both elite marks. When he allows contact, it’s typically soft, as indicated by his minuscule recent hard-hit percentage allowed of 16 percent and even smaller 13 percent line-drive rate. A whopping 60 percent groundball percentage, 14 points above his season rate, is intriguing as well.
The Trends tool tells us that pitchers with comparable exit velocities, batted-ball distance allowed, and hard-hit percentages have provided a +1.28 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Pitchers with groundball and line-drive percentages comparable to Cueto have historically performed at a nearly identical +1.29 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Cueto has averaged 46.8 points per game on FanDuel the past month, 11.9 points more than his season average.
Cueto’s 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel makes rostering Johnny an extremely penny-wise option.
What to Make of Jake
Earlier this season, I wrote about Rowdy Roddy Piper and the Jake Arrieta Experiment. Following through on that experiment has paid dividends lately, as Arrieta has been decidedly more human recently.
Arrieta has seen recent increases in his average batted-ball distance allowed, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. In Jake’s last five starts, his average points per game on FanDuel has decreased by 8.6 points. Is there cause to be concerned about Arrieta?
The Trends tool tells us that pitchers with analogous increases in both batted-ball distance allowed and hard-hit percentage have experienced a slightly negative Plus/Minus.
Keep in mind that negative increases to incredible awesomeness may only make said awesomeness slightly less awesome. Even accounting for all of Arrieta’s increases in recent batted-ball metrics, historically players with similar 15-day averages for distance, hard-hit percentage, and exit velocity have accounted for a +0.90 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Experiment at your own risk.
Miami Vice
Tom Koehler has seen intriguing decreases in all of his advanced metrics differentials. His recent exit velocity is down four miles per hour, his average distance allowed is down 16 feet, and his hard-hit percentage has dropped by 14 points.
More captivating is the fact that despite increasing his recent fantasy points per game on DraftKings by more than five points, Koehler’s price has decreased by $900 the past month.
When pitchers with similar decreases in hard-hit percentage have also experienced a salary decrease of at least $100 on DraftKings, they historically produce a +1.05 Plus/Minus.
Batters
Turning it Up
Among batters who have played at least 10 games in the past 15 days, Justin Turner’s 65 percent hard-hit rate is the highest in the league.
During this time frame, he has also added 27 feet to his average batted-ball distance, bringing it up to a very respectable 246 feet. Turner has increased his recent exit velocity by six miles per hour as well, currently sitting at an extremely swift 98 MPH.
Players who have recent hard-hit percentages of at least 60 percent, coupled with increases in both exit velocity and distance comparable to Turner, historically have a +0.96 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Turner has increased his average points per game on FanDuel by 2.4 points this past month.
The Odor of Success
Rougned Odor is dropping bombs. He has hit three home runs in his last four games, during which time he has averaged 20.25 points per game on FanDuel.
Odor’s recent average batted-ball distance has increased by a whopping 49 feet, all the way up to 256 feet this season. His recent exit velocity increase of eight MPH is best among batters who have played at least 10 games the past 15 days. His hard-hit percentage increase of 21 points is nothing to sneeze at either. Basically, Odor is hitting the sh*t out of the ball.
Players with similar 15-day averages for distance and hard-hit percentage have historically had a +0.53 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
A Groundball Through Buckner’s Legs
Mookie Betts is so d*mn good, he has made many a Red Sox fan forget the day they cursed the name of Mookie Wilson. The dude is a legit stud.
However, Betts’ advanced metrics are currently trending in the wrong direction. His average batted-ball distance is down 39 feet, his hard-hit percentage has dropped eight points, and his exit velocity has decreased by two MPH. In fact, his recent hard-hit percentage is down to 25 percent and his recent average distance sits at a paltry 174 feet.
Despite these decreases, however, his price on FanDuel has increased by $200 the past month, along with his fantasy points per game, which have increased by 2.7 points.
Players with comparable downward trends in form that have experienced coinciding salary increases on FanDuel have not been good values historically.
Conclusion
Today we examined two stud pitchers with metrics heading in opposite directions — one you should ride or die, and the other you should ride a bit more cautiously. We also looked at one low-cost pitcher who could currently be a great source of unknown value.
For batters, we looked at one player who was a staple of DFS lineups last season that looks like he’s ready to rock once again, and another whose current form should not be ignored. We also looked at a bonafide stud whose price isn’t in line with his current production.
As always, these are only a few examples of the advantages you may find hidden in our advanced data, so head on over to our free MLB Trends tool and see what you can discover on your own.
