In the MLB DFS Recent Form Report, I will continue ‘Sheriff’ Bill Monighetti’s process of creating trends with filters listed under the “Adv Stats – Recent” heading of our free Trends tool. I am looking for players whose recent play has not shown up in their stats or whose production has been exceeding or falling short of expectations. The MLB DFS Recent Form Report is released on Monday morning each week.
Pitchers
Max Scherzer Is Good
Since striking out 20 batters and accumulating 59.15 DraftKings points on May 11, Scherzer has struck out ‘only’ an average of 8.2 batters and averaged ‘just’ 26.79 DraftKings points per game in five starts. What the hell is wrong with him?
According to our advanced data, absolutely nothing is wrong with him.
Scherzer’s recent hard-hit rate allowed (HH%) of 19 percent is flat-out ridiculous and his recent exit velocity allowed (EV) of 85 miles per hour is the best in MLB. And the good news just keeps getting better: Scherzer has seen a recent decrease in batted-ball distance, EV, and HH%.
Per our Trends tool, comparable pitchers have produced a Plus/Minus of +1.23 with 53.8-percent Consistency on DraftKings. The numbers are even more impressive on FanDuel.
Additionally, pitchers who have averaged at least 10 strikeouts per game and seen at least a five-foot and five-point decrease in recent distance and HH% have done incredibly well on DraftKings and FanDuel. Naturally, the sample for such trends is small.
Carlos Carrasco Is Still Good, Right?
Carrasco makes for a very interesting study. His 199-foot recent batted-ball distance and 89-MPH recent EV are some of the best in MLB. His 63-percent recent ground-ball rate is absolutely elite. However, in the last 15 days he has seen a 12-point increase in HH%, bringing his average all the way up to 41 percent.
So what happens when a pitcher keeps balls on the ground and those balls aren’t going very far but a lot of them are being hit hard?
Per our Trends tool, this seems to be a rare case, as evidenced by the small sample of only 28 players. It’s uncertain how much we can read into Carrasco’s advanced data, but it’s worth noting that pitchers in analogous spots have produced Plus/Minus values of -1.77 on Draft Kings and -3.02 on FanDuel.
Batters
Freddie Freeman: No More Nightmare on Elm Street?
Up to this point of the season, Freeman has significantly underperformed his career averages. His current .320 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and .417 slugging percentage (SLG) are well below his career marks of .359 and .462. Freeman’s 26-percent strikeout rate is nearly five points higher than his career average of 21.2 percent. It’s safe to say that things have been a bit of a nightmare.
But is there hope on the horizon? Freeman’s recent batted-ball distance is up to 269 feet, the best in MLB among hitters who have played at least 10 games in the past 15 days. Additionally, over that timeframe Freddie has seen his EV increase four MPH and HH % increase 11 points to a very solid 44 percent.
Historically, players with similar recent batted-ball metrics have produced a Plus/Minus of +0.83 on DraftKings. They have also done similarly on FanDuel, where Freeman has experienced a -$500 Salary Change the past month.
Chris Carter, David Peralta, and Evan Longoria are other regular starters with comparable recent advanced metrics.
Josh Donaldson Is (Still) a Stud, Right?
There are plenty of dudes in MLB who would kill for Donaldson’s current .371 wOBA and .511 SLG, but those numbers pale in comparison to last season’s .398 wOBA and .568 SLG.
It’s concerning that Donaldson’s EV has dropped seven MPH, the largest EV decrease of any regular starter besides Alexi Ramirez. Donaldson has also seen a 23-foot decrease in batted-ball distance and nine-point drop in HH%.
On DraftKings, players with similar drops in batted-ball distance, EV, and HH% tend not to do well. They also tend to do even worse on FanDuel.
Randal Grichuk: Dazed and Confused
If Randall ‘Pink’ Floyd from Dazed and Confused stepped into the batter’s box during one of Lee High School’s epic Friday Night blowouts, he might do about as well as Grichuk has done recently.
Last season, Grichuk maintained a .370 wOBA and monster .548 SLG in 103 games for the Cardinals. That’s a far cry from the .287 wOBA and .386 SLG he has compiled in 59 games this season.
Even more troubling is that Grichuk’s recent advanced metrics are moving in the wrong direction. His batted-ball distance of -49 feet is the second-worst among hitters who have played at least ten games in the past 15 days. Grichuk has also lost three MPH of EV and eight points on his HH%.
Generally, players with recent advanced metrics comparable to Grichuk’s are not in a position to improve their value.
Conclusion
Today, we looked at two starting pitchers who may be headed in opposite directions. Additionally, we examined three hitters who have recently underperformed based on the prior year’s statistics. Head over to our free MLB Trends tool and see what you can discover on your own.
