Thursday features a seven-game main slate on DraftKings and a 5-game main slate on FanDuel, starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Note: The PHI vs. MIA and DET vs. STL games have been postponed due to Covid-19 restrictions.
Pitchers
Premium pitching options are in short supply on Thursday’s slate, with only one player above $9,000 on FanDuel.
Studs
- Tyler Chatwood (R), $9,600, CHC @ KAN
- Zac Gallen (R), $8,200, ARI vs. HOU
Tyler Chatwood has been extraordinarily good through his first two starts, pitching to a microscopic 0.94 FIP and averaging 13.5 K/9. He was dominant in his last start, pitching 6.1 innings and allowing zero runs while recording 11 strikeouts. Given his career 4.62 FIP (and 4.28 FIP from a year ago) with 6.59 K/9, negative regression is all but likely.
On Thursday, he faces off against a Kansas City Royals team that’s been struggling to the tune of a .297 wOBA thus far, but they’re striking out just 23.8% of the time. The 11 strikeouts are not consistent with what we’d expect to see out of him in a normal outing, which makes him very risky at his $9,600 price tag. He’s projected at 21-25% ownership, which makes him a strong fade candidate at this salary.
Zac Gallen pitched six strong innings in his last start, allowing just two runs and striking out nine batters. While he struggled in his first outing, allowing a 50% hard hit rate against the San Diego Padres, he managed to cut that down to 35.7% in his last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. While better, he’ll need to improve that even further against a powerful Astros lineup that has a slate-high .379 wOBA and is averaging 7.8 runs/game over their last five. They are also only striking out 20.8% of the time. He’s the lowest rated pitcher in the Bales Model and should be avoided at his $8,200 price tag.
Values
Jordan Yamamoto clocks in as the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model on Thursday night against a poor-hitting Baltimore Orioles team. The Orioles have struggled so far, with the projected lineup sporting a poor .284 wOBA and 26% strikeout rate. Yamamoto is making his first appearance of the season after starting 15 games for the Marlins last season, posting a 4.51 FIP and strong 9.39 K/9. At only $5,600 against a light-hitting and strikeout prone team like the Orioles, it’s easy to understand why he’s projected to be one of the most popular pitchers on the slate at 21-25% ownership.
Given the lack of options tonight, he warrants consideration in all formats.
It’s never exciting to play Wade LeBlanc, but you could do worse at $6,600 against the Miami Marlins. His numbers so far are ugly, pitching to a 5.54 FIP and allowing 2.24 HR/9. He gets the benefit of taking on a Marlins team with a poor .279 wOBA that’s striking out nearly 34% of the time. Despite the poor surface numbers, LeBlanc has totals of 22 and 23 FanDuel points over his first two starts, good for 3x his current salary.
Again, not exciting, but it does allow you to fit in plenty of big bats around him. LeBlanc has averaged only 6.57 K/9 throughout his career, but given the matchup, has upside to outperform his 3.4 K prediction.
Fastballs
Nate Pearson pitched well in his season debut, logging five innings while giving up two hits, two walks and striking out five. The Blue Jays top pitching prospect will look to build upon that Thursday night against a tough, young Atlanta Braves lineup.
Despite the big names, this Braves team has underperformed in aggregate thus far this season, hitting to a .325 wOBA and striking out 27.3% of the time. Pearson has averaged 9+ K’s/9 throughout his minor league career, so the strikeout upside is definitely there. Given the matchup, though, he’s best suited as a guaranteed prize pool (GPP) consideration.
Brad Keller makes his season debut on Thursday after beginning the season on the Covid-19 list. Keller was nothing special in 2019, pitching to a 4.35 FIP and recording just 6.64 K/9. His opponent, the Chicago Cubs, have unperformed so far, collectively hitting to a .311 wOBA and striking out 26.2% of the time. Despite that, the power of the Cubs lineup and the lack of strikeout upside makes him unappealing, even on a five-game slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man on DraftKings (per the Bales Model) belongs to the New York Yankees:
- 1. DJ LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Gleyber Torres (R)
- 4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 5. Aaron Hicks (S)
Total Salary: $24,600
Aaron Judge has started 2020 on an absolute tear, smashing a league-leading seven home runs over his first 10 games of the season. He matches up well again on Thursday against Zach Efflin.
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge
Efflin has struggled so far, pitching to a 4.85 FIP and allowing 1.54 HR/9 thus far. Judge has a ridiculous .499 wOBA and .500 ISO against righties so far this year. DJ LeMahieu also hasn’t missed a step after returning from a Covid-19 designation, hitting to a .412/.429/.618 slash line in limited time. He will likely lead-off for the Yankees again in this one.
It’s important to note, though, that Efflin only allowed a 29.1% hard contact rate and 1.13 HR/9 last season, there is some risk here paying up for the Yankees on a slate where they will be very popular on DraftKings.
The Chicago Cubs are the top four-man stack on FanDuel (per the Bales Model):
- 1. Kris Bryant (R)
- 2. Anthony Rizzo (L)
- 3. Javier Baez (R)
- 5. Kyle Schwarber (R)
Total Salary: $13,700
While the Cubs have struggled so far, they have a fairly solid matchup against righty Brad Keller on Thursday night. As noted above, he’s making his first start of the season and was very mediocre in 2019.
Kris Bryant is the top-rated third basemen in the Bales Model, projected to lead-off at a reasonable $3,700 price tag. His .358 wOBA and .225 ISO against righties has been relatively strong so far. Kyle Schwarber is a bargain at just $2,800 and projected to bat clean-up; his .367 wOBA and .298 ISO against righties last season was very strong. The Cubs will likely be popular on FanDuel, so you’ll want to pair them with a lower-owned starting pitcher or mini-stack.
Other Batters
Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks highly in the Bales Model and for good reason. He’s been hitting the ball well recently, collecting seven hits over his last 23 at-bats, including four extra base hits. He’s projected to bat lead-off against Nate Pearson and has been substantially better against righties, hitting to a .401 wOBA and .305 ISO. He comes in with seven Pro Trends and holds a 92% Bargain Rating.
Luis Robert has more than lived up to the hype so far during his rookie season. The 23-year-old uber prospect has excelled, particularly against right-handed pitching, where he has a .433 wOBA and .243 ISO. He takes on righty Josh Lindblom, who spent the last two seasons in the KBO and has very few major league innings. Robert is projected to lead-off and has a modest $3,200 salary on FanDuel.
Bo Bichette is a strong value on FanDuel at $2,700 as the projected lead-off hitter for the Toronto Blue Jays. Bichette has been hitting the ball well of-late, collecting six hits in his last 18 at-bats, including two extra-base hits. He has a 97% Bargain Rating on Thursday night.
