Thursday features an eight-game main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Tonight’s slate features three pitchers over the $10,000 mark on FanDuel:
Studs
- Shane Bieber (R), $12,000, CLE @ PIT
- Sonny Gray (R), $10,700, CIN @ STL
- Clayton Kershaw (L), $10,100, LOS @ SEA
Shane Bieber has been an absolute stud through his first five starts, pitching to a 2.13 FIP and ringing up batters at a 14.2 K/9 rate over 34.2 innings. That’s a vast improvement over his still strong 10.88 K/9 from a year ago. A major contributing factor has been the addition of a cutter, which has helped improve his swinging strike rate from 14% in 2019 to over 19% so far this season. He takes on a struggling Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has collected a poor .291 wOBA and is striking out 24.2% of the time. Bieber’s outstanding strikeout rate against a struggling team makes him a solid cash game play.
Sonny Gray gets a strong matchup against a St. Louis Cardinals team that has been struggling mightily thus far, scoring just 52 total runs, worst in the majors. Their advanced metrics back that up, with the projected lineup hitting to a poor .280 wOBA and striking out 26% of the time.
Gray has thrown more than 100 pitches in each of his last three starts, so longevity should not be an issue. At $10,700 on FanDuel, though, it’s fair to wonder if he’s worth the price tag. His 13.21 K/9 so far is nearly five strikeouts higher than his career average of 8.45 and his 2.56 FIP is more than a full run lower (3.66). The matchup is strong, and he’s performed well so far, but his elevated price tag warrants some caution.
Clayton Kershaw pitched seven strong innings in his last start, allowing one run and striking out six in a win against the Los Angeles Angels. In that game, he was extended to 91 pitches, so he should be cleared to hit the 100-pitch mark tonight against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners projected lineup has struggled mightily against lefties so far, hitting an almost unfathomable .184 wOBA and striking out 30.1% of the time.
At $10,100 on FanDuel, Kershaw is the best high-end play on the slate from a Pts/Salary perspective. Fire up him up without hesitation in cash games.
Values
Dinelson Lamet has been dominant in his last two starts, collecting 19 strikeouts over 12.2 innings pitches and allowing just two earned runs. He’s in another strong spot against a struggling Texas Rangers team that has been poor versus righties, collecting a .267 wOBA and striking out 29.8% of the time.
Lamet’s 11.4 K/9 is strong, so he should have no problem collecting punch-outs on Thursday night. He’s a strong bargain relative to the big three names and has just as much upside in this matchup against Texas. He warrants consideration in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Sean Manaea is a strong Pts/Salary play at just $6,600 on FanDuel. Manaea takes on an Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup that has been about league-average so far, collecting a .318 wOBA and striking out 24.5% of the time. He’s struggled so far in 2019, but he has been very unlucky; his 7.32 ERA is more than 3.5 runs higher than his 4.04 FIP.
He’ll likely be low-owned in this spot given his recent performances and is a nice low-dollar GPP option if you’re looking to pay up for hitting.
John McCoy/Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Manaea
Nathan Eovaldi’s metrics aren’t great so far (4.79 FIP, 1.98 HR/9), but he’s in a decent spot against a Baltimore Orioles team that’s hitting to just a .317 wOBA and striking out 25.6% of the time. His 4.79 FIP vs. 5.93 ERA indicates that he’s been a bit unlucky so far, and he’s had success against this Orioles team already this season. On July 24, he pitched six innings and gave up only one run while striking out four and collecting a win.
At just $6,800, he’s more than capable of paying off his modest salary. He should also carry relatively low ownership.
Fastballs
Adam Wainwright has been strong over his first two starts, going 2-0 and pitching to a 1.34 ERA over 11 innings pitched. That said, his 3.05 FIP is nearly 1.5 runs higher than his ERA, which means negative regression is likely coming his way. At $8,300, he’s the lowest ranked pitcher in the Bales Model and should be avoided in all formats.
Kevin Gausman has a career-high 11.92 K/9 so far over his first five starts of the season. Despite that, he’s actually been a bit unlucky; his 4.21 ERA is nearly a full run higher than his 3.21 FIP. The Angels have struggled recently, scoring just four total runs in their last two games. His salary on FanDuel has increased $1,500 since his last start, though, so he’s not at much of a value as he may seem given the matchup.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man on DraftKings (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- 1. Alex Verdugo (L)
- 2. Rafael Devers (L)
- 3. JD Martinez (R)
- 4. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 5. Mitch Moreland (L)
Total Salary: $25,700
The Boston Red Sox are in an advantageous spot on Thursday against struggling pitcher Asher Wojciechowski, a right-hander who has allowing an alarming 2.41 HR/9 on the season and is pitching to a 5.93 FIP over 18.2 innings of work.
Boston has multiple hitters who thrive against righties, starting at the top in Alex Verdugo. Projected to lead off, Verdugo has crushed right-handed pitching thus far to the tune of a .417 wOBA and .362 ISO so far. He’s a steal at just $2,700 on FanDuel. Rafael Devers has also excelled, collecting a .329 wOBA and .241 ISO across 56 plate appearances in 2020. JD Martinez comes in with a 98% bargain rating at just $3,500, making him a nice one-off piece if you decide to go elsewhere for your main GPP stack.
The Cleveland Indians also rank highly as a four-man stack on FanDuel (per the Bales Model):
- 1. Cesar Hernandez (S)
- 2. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 3. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 4. Carlos Santana (S)
Total Salary: $13,200
Opposing pitcher Trevor Williams hasn’t been anything special thus far, collecting just 7.97 K/9 and pitching to a 4.62 FIP over 20.1 innings. The Cleveland Indians, meanwhile, have been hot, scoring at least six runs in each of their last three games. Jose Ramirez (.360 wOBA, .213 ISO) and Francisco Lindor (.314 wOBA and .263 ISO) unsurprisingly lead the pack, but projected leadoff hitter Cesar Hernandez has also hit the ball as of late, collecting an extra-base hit in each of his last three games. He’s a strong bargain at just $2,700 on FanDuel. He also brings five Pro Trends and a 92% Bargain Rating into the matchup.
The Indians will likely be low owned in this one and at a collectively modest $13,200 salary, allows you to pay up elsewhere. Consider them a strong GPP target.
Other Batters
Mookie Betts is among the highest-rated players in the Bales Model on Thursday. He’s struggled against left-handed pitching so far this season, but his .352 wOBA against southpaws from a season ago indicates he’s a candidate for some positive regression. Opponent Yusei Kikuchi has been solid over three starts this season, but his 5.71 FIP from 2019 is likely closer to reality than what we’ve seen so far. Betts holds an 88% bargain rating at his $4,400 price tag.
Justin Turner also matches up well against Kikuchi. Across 179 plate appearances in 2019, Turner hit an impressive .385 wOBA and .294 ISO against southpaws. He’s projected to bat third and makes a strong min-stack pairing with Betts. He’s also a substantial bargain at his $3,400 price tag.
Trent Grisham ranks highly in Bales Model on Thursday, projected to lead off for the San Diego Padres against righty Kyle Gibson. Grisham has been crushing righties to the tune of a .408 wOBA and .261 ISO so far this season. At just $3,000, he’s a strong cash game play.
Pictured above: Shane Bieber. Credit: Ron Vesely/Getty Images.
