In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? Keyser Söze
John Daigle: Jhonny Peralta, STL, SS
Almedys Diaz is typically mandatory in any St. Louis stack if only because he ordinarily hits second, a spot in the order that historically carries a +0.50 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. But, tonight, note his -0.094 and -0.100 wOBA and ISO Differentials. Peralta, however, has a .109 ISO Differential against left-handed pitching, the highest among shortstops this evening, and his 10 Pro Trends are also tied with Eduardo Nunez’s for the most at the position.
With the Cardinals implied Vegas total having risen 0.2 runs, they’ll likely be a popular stack in this slate. Assuming that he will have lower ownership than Diaz (and continues hitting fifth), I expect Peralta to be the stronger (and more contrarian) tournament option of the two at exactly the same position.
Be sure to check out John’s Slate Breakdown for additional analysis.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Tyler Buecher: Jay Bruce, CIN, OF
On short slates with few elite pitching options, my go-to strategy is to pay up for bats and punt at pitcher. Jay Bruce isn’t one of those expensive batters, but his $3,500 salary on FanDuel coupled with his 98-percent Bargain Rating is too enticing to pass up. Additionally, Bruce is second at his position with eight Pro Trends.
Bargain Rating, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Batting cleanup for the Reds, Bruce has been on fire recently, improving his hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and batted-ball distance by 14 percentage points, five miles per hour, and 43 feet (per our advanced stats). When his 55-percent recent fly-ball rate is added to the mix, it’s no wonder that Bruce has hit five home runs in his last ten games.
Bruce will be facing righty Adam Wainwright, who ranks near the bottom of the slate in both WHIP and SO/9. Slugging .584 against righties the past month, Bruce and his top-five ISO Differential (.132) shouldn’t have any problem exploiting the matchup. With his recent production, Bruce is a strong option for tonight’s seven-game slate.
J.J. Calle: Matt Carpenter, STL, 3B/2B
Carpenter will bat leadoff for a team currently implied to score a slate-high 5.3 runs. When he was in the same position the previous two days, he exceeded his salary-based expectations. Per our Trends tools, leadoff hitters on teams implied to score between 5.1 and 5.6 runs have netted a +2.41 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +2.65 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Carpenter’s 94-MPH exit velocity over the past year ranks first at his listed position on both sites, which makes his increase of one MPH over the past 15 days all the more appealing on such a small slate. Over the past month, he has been the most consistent second basemen on FanDuel, meeting value in half his games. Additionally, home plate umpire, Jerry Meals, has added 0.97 DraftKings points to hitters’ Plus/Minus values this season.
If advanced stats, Consistency, and the umpires don’t sway your opinion, remember that Carpenter will likely face the Reds’ league-worst bullpen (6.73 ERA and 1.97 HR/9), which he has already roughed up for a two-RBI double, one run, and one walk this series.
Bryan Mears: Robbie Grossman, MIN, OF
Grossman, Grossman, does DraftKings think you’re gross, man? [Editor’s Note: When you write a sentence like that, your punishment is having people read it.]
Look at his recent game log:
If you can figure out why Grossman’s salary today dipped back to the $2,000 minimum at DraftKings, you’re smarter than I am. He has recorded points in each of his last eight games and has hit two home runs in his last three. Further, he is projected to hit fifth for a team implied to score 5.1 runs tonight.
He leads all DraftKings batters with 12 Pro Trends, boasts unreal stats (.437 wOBA, .300 ISO, and .567 slugging), and is facing Tom Koehler and his miserable 1.484 WHIP. He has a recent batted-ball distance of 221 feet, which is the same as that of Edwin Encarnacion ($4,600) and more than that of Mike Trout ($5,500). Finally, he has a 99-percent Bargain Rating, which is absurd. He will be approximately one million percent owned tonight, and for good reason.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA and Euro Tour.
