Saturday’s main slate features seven games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Three pitchers top the elite pricing range on FanDuel:
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $11,000, LAD @ LAA
- Lance Lynn (R) $10,400, CHW @ KC
- Cristian Javier (R) $9,500, HOU vs TOR
It is safe to say Clayton Kershaw’s start against the Cubs earlier this week is a historical blip on his Hall of Fame resume. That blowup brought his peripherals closer to what is expected from the lefty. His BABIP, Expected ERA, and Expected Fielder Independent Pitching are within the acceptable range of his 2.95 ERA heading into Saturday’s game against the Angels.
The inconsistency of the Dodgers’ offense is just as concerning as the Angels’ batting lineup. Cody Bellinger’s absence is going to be an issue, and only two everyday Dodgers hitters have an average above .270.
The Angels are one of the best teams at home against left-handed pitching. After disposing of Julio Urias on Friday night, the Angels have a .295/.376/.524 slash line and lead baseball with a 154 Weight Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against southpaws at home.
Lance Lynn and the White Sox rotation will have to do the heavy lifting with so many important hitters injured. The White Sox and Red Sox are the only teams that rank top five in Batting and Pitching WAR, a problem for their opponent in Kansas City. The Royals continue to do well to limit striking out while making copious amounts of contact. They’re the definition of an average offense no matter the situation, and fall in the middle of the league in majority of hitting categories.
Lynn and the White Sox are the second-largest favorites on the main slate and are projected to outscore the Royals 5.1-4.0. Lynn is the Bales Model’s favorite high-priced pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: White Sox RHP Lance Lynn on Jackie Robinson Day
The Astros are relatively healthy, which is a problem in the competitive AL West. Houston’s offense is now top three in Offensive WAR and Cristian Javier has improved on an impressive 2020 rookie campaign. Javier has done his best work at home, logging 42-plus FanDuel points in all three home starts, while failing to eclipse 20 points in his two road starts. The Toronto Blue Jays are a flyball offense, which plays into Javier’s repertoire, but he is due for home run regression — he has allowed one in 25 2/3 innings pitched after allowing 11 in 54 1/3 innings last season.
The Blue Jays have a .647 team OPS against righties on the road, so Javier should be able to do enough to log his fourth win of the season. He is the highest-priced pitcher on DraftKings but is third on FanDuel.
Value
Merrill Kelly is underpriced on FanDuel. He has a difficult matchup against the New York Mets, but we have seen how up-and-down. After ending April by scoring three runs in two games, the Mets have scored at least four runs in six of seven May games. Kelly has topped his projections in his last two starts, both at home. If there is a situation to take a chance on a repeat performance without spending a lot of salary, this is it. Kelly is a top five option on both platforms.
It is safe to say the Orioles’ offense has turned back into a pumpkin after last season’s outburst. Garrett Richards has logged consecutive starts of allowing one earned run and has 91 FanDuel points to show for his efforts. He has one of the higher strikeout upsides as well, coming into Saturday night with 17 over his past 12 innings.
Fastbreak
Joey Lucchesi tops all starting pitchers with seven and five Pro Trends on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Despite rating well, I do not trust the former Padre. He has allowed 12 earned runs and 14 hits over 10 2/3 innings pitched this season.
Dylan Bundy has yet to get a win in six starts, but he does have five quality starts. He faces the Dodgers’ inconsistent lineup. Bundy has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Notable Stack
The team tied with the White Sox for the highest projected team total tops FanDuel’s favorite stacking option:
- Freddie Freeman (L)
- Ozzie Albies (S)
- Marcell Ozuna (R)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
Total Salary: $15,200
Like the Dodgers, Atlanta’s offense has been wildly inconsistent, failing to take advantage of hitter-friendly pitching. Atlanta faces Vince Velazquez of the Phillies, a mainstay on the team that did not make the starting rotation out of camp. He has pitched better as he has been inserted into the rotation. Vazquez does have a lengthy history of walks, including walking four in 1 1/3 innings to open his season.
Scott Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Phillies RHP Vince Velazquez
Velazquez has a 6.38 Walks Per 9 and is allowing 2.45 Home Runs Per 9 over six total appearances in 2021.
Other Batters
Play White Sox hitters against lefties, now and forever. They enter tonight with a 158 wRC+ against southpaws in road games. Good luck Daniel Lynch.
Two hitters to target because they may never be this cheap again in 2021 – Jose Altuve and Mookie Betts. Both are at least 86% bargains on FanDuel and are under $4,000. Altuve is the top rated player on FanDuel and a top five player on DraftKings. Betts is rated as a top 10 player on DraftKings.
A game stack to consider is Seattle-Texas. Erik Swanson opens for the Mariners, while Kohei Arihara looks to log five innings for only the fourth time in seven starts. Arihara has one home start coming into tonight, but he was awful in that game (-7 FanDuel points). Mitch Haniger and Willie Calhoun are top 10 rated hitters on both platforms.
Yasmani Grandal has three times as many walks (22) as hits (7). At least there is a points floor.
If you roster a catcher on FanDuel, aim for Christian Vazquez. He is on a five-game hitting streak, collecting eight hits, two doubles, five RBI’s, three runs and two stolen bases.
