Friday features a 12-game main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings starting at 7:05pm ET.
If playing tonight’s slate, be sure to check the status of each game prior to lock. There is a high level of uncertainty as to how many games will actually be played tonight.
Pitchers
Friday night’s slate features two pitchers at or above the $10,000 mark on FanDuel:
Studs
- Max Scherzer (R), $10,600, WAS vs. BOS
- Zac Gallen (R), $10,000, ARI vs. SFG
Max Scherzer has the highest projection on the slate in the Bales Model for Friday night. He’s struggled over his past two starts, allowing nine earned runs across 11.2 innings pitched, including four home runs. The Boston Red Sox have been about average against right-handed pitching (.313 team wOBA) overall, but have been hitting the ball well lately, averaging 5.6 runs per game over their past eight games.
Scherzer can dominate any time he takes the mound, but given his recent struggles and the hot bats in Boston, it may be safest to look elsewhere for cash games. In guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), however, his ownership should be reduced enough to warrant consideration.
Zac Gallen has been excellent over his last two starts, allowing just two earned runs over 13 innings while striking out 14 batters. He’s allowed just a 31.8% hard hit rate on the season and his average exit velocity, down near 86.8, is also very strong.
The San Francisco Giants haven’t been a tough matchup to-date, hitting near league average with a .308 wOBA against righties. While he should find some success in this one, the Giants relatively low 22.4% strikeout rate should work to limit his upside. At a $10,000 salary, it’s difficult to project him paying off his steep price tag. You could do worse in cash games, but he should be avoided in GPPs.
Values
Corbin Burnes offers strong value on FanDuel at just $7,200. On Friday, he takes on a Pittsburgh Pirates team with a poor .250 wOBA against right-handed pitching. They’ve also struck out 24.8% of the time, which while not extremely high, should be bolstered when considering Burnes’ 12.30 K/9 so far this season. He worked his way up to 87 pitches in his last start, so approaching 100 pitches tonight is not completely out of the question.
At his price point, Burnes is a strong GPP play if you’re looking to pay up for big bats.
Fastballs
Zack Wheeler takes on the Atlanta Braves for a second consecutive start. He had success last time out, pitching seven innings and allowing two earned runs while striking out eight batters. His salary has increased $800 since then, which does cap his projected Pts/Salary relative to his high $9,800 price tag. He’s a solid cash game play, but he will likely have a hard time hitting GPP value.
Despite having a strong outing against these same San Diego Padres at home earlier in the month, Kyle Freeland has otherwise struggled at home this season, pitching to a 4.93 FIP and allowing a 46% hard hit rate. It makes matters worse when his home park is Coors Field. His price tag has increased by $1,200 since his last start, making him borderline unplayable at $8,900.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man on DraftKings (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Ramiel Tapia (L)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 5. Daniel Murphy (L)
Total Salary: $25,000
The Colorado Rockies at Coors Field are always extremely popular, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that they’re in a good spot on Friday night. They take on Zach Davies, a righty that has been largely mediocre over his career, pitching to a 4.44 FIP and striking out just 6.4 K/9 over six seasons. He pitched at Coors Field earlier this season, allowing three earned runs over five innings while striking out just three. One negative to the matchup is that Davies does limit the long ball, so we’ll likely need to see the Rockies string together hits to make this stack pay off.
Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Story
Trevor Story grades out particularly well — he’s hit righties very well in 2020, collecting a .384 wOBA and .270 ISO against them so far. Charlie Blackmon has also been exceptional with a .352 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the season.
The San Diego Padres also rank highly as a four-man stack on FanDuel (per the Bales Model):
- 1. Kolton Wong (L)
- 2. Fernando Tatis Jr (R)
- 3. Manny Machado (R)
- 5. Wil Myers (R)
Total Salary: $16,400
The San Diego Padres have shown that they are more than capable of taking advantage of strong matchups this season. Over their past six games, they’ve had run totals of 10 and 13 in such spots. Friday, they take on Kyle Freeland, a pitcher whose struggles at Coors Field were illustrated earlier.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been good against everyone lately, including lefties; he has a .345 wOBA and .276 ISO in 35 plate appearances so far on the season. Manny Machado has also been excellent, hitting to a .391 wOBA and .313 ISO himself against southpaws.
The Padres will certainly have some ownership given they are also playing at Coors Field, but they will likely come in lower-owned than the Rockies in an arguably better spot.
Other Batters
Ian Happ once again ranks highly in the Bales Model at just $3,000 on FanDuel. Happ has been outstanding against right-handed pitching, logging an impressive .444 wOBA and .338 ISO against them so far. His price has increased $200 since last night, but as the projected leadoff hitter in this game, he still ranks as a 78% bargain in our model.
Trea Turner has been excellent against left-handed pitching this season, logging an impressive .372 wOBA and .240 ISO so far across 28 plate appearances. He takes on lefty Martin Perez on Friday night, who hasn’t exactly lit up the stat line this year, pitching to a 4.56 FIP and collecting just 6.6 K/9. Turner is projected to man his typical leadoff spot and has a 91% bargain rating in our model.
Pictured above: Zac Gallen (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
