Editor’s note: Sunday’s A’s-Astros game was postponed after time of writing after a person within the Oakland organization tested positive for COVID-19.
Sunday’s MLB DFS main slate includes 13 games and begins at 1:05 ET. The starting pitcher options are not household stalwarts but paying up at the position is warranted.
Pitchers
The are no options above $10,000 on FanDuel today. Therefore, we will look at the six pitchers priced above $9,000:
- Framber Valdez (L), $9,900, vs. OAK (Postponed)
- Kenta Maeda (R), $9,700, @ DET
- Aaron Civale (R,) $9,600, @ STL
- Blake Snell (L), $9,400, @ MIA
- Brandon Woodruff (R), $9,100, vs. PIT
- Luis Castillo (R), $9,100, vs. CHC
A round of sound for Framber Valdez! The lefty leads starting pitcher salaries and the title is deserved. He has cut down on his home runs allowed and is walking over half as few batters in 2020 as he did in 2019. That has led to fewer big innings and an increase of runners left on base (64.9% in 2019, 72.8% in 2020). Valdez gets a legitimate test against the Oakland Athletics Sunday.
The A’s are a perfectly average team; their traditional slash stats are in the middle of baseball, and their Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) is 103, or 3% above league average. They strike out at the fourth-highest percentage in baseball, but also walk at the third-highest rate. If you need a stat to sway you towards Valdez, Oakland hits .221 against lefties, but only .195 on the road with 37 strikeouts in 113 at-bats.
Valdez is a steal on DraftKings ($8,000, SP9) and is a must-play despite his assumed ownership.
Kenta Maeda has limited his use of the fastball in favor of his slider and changeup, and the results have been stellar. The Twins’ offseason acquisition has quality starts in four of his six starts in 2020 and has racked up more than 33 FanDuel points in five of six starts. It is also much easier to win games when you limit home runs (0.74 per 9 innings) and your walks per 9 innings and Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) by nearly one full point each.
Maeda faces the Detroit Tigers, who are an okay offensive team. Their biggest flaw is their league-high strikeout percentage and second-worst walk percentage. Minnesota is also a heavy favorite today as Vegas has Minnesota’s projected total runs at 5.1 and Detroit’s at 3.5.
Maeda is $100 cheaper on DraftKings but is the most expensive pitcher.
All Aaron Civale has to do is eliminate the long ball. (1.12 HR per 9, 12.5% Home-Run-to-Fly-Ball ratio, both career highs). He has been excellent for the Cleveland Indians and faces a deflated St. Louis Cardinals offense. Civale is a FanDuel point machine, collecting 37 or more points in five of six starts in 2020. St. Louis may not look great statistically, but the Bales Model is not a fan of Civale today as St. Louis is an average offense (96 wRC+).
Blake Snell has not been the same pitcher since his 2018 Cy Young award win. Aside from his excellent Strikeout per 9, every other aspect of his game has been fine. His walk rate has dropped precipitously, but what he lost there went to his home run rates. His HR per 9, HR/FB%, and hard-hit rate are at career highs in 2020. Snell’s ceiling on FanDuel is also lower than the rest of the higher-priced starters. His cost is associated more with his opponents – the Miami Marlins – than his success this season and the Bales Model agrees. Miami is 20th or worse in all three traditional slash categories and is hitting just .203 against southpaws at home. In 118 at-bats against lefties, the Marlins have two home runs.
Brandon Woodruff has a Fielder Independent Pitcher Minus score (FIP-) of 63, 12th best in baseball. 100 is average and any number below that is good. FIP- takes into context the conditions a pitcher faces including ballparks, and Miller Park is not kind to pitchers. This is not a fluke either; when not on the shelf in 2019, his FIP- was 67.
Woodruff toes the rubber against the only team without double-digit wins in 2020: the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh has a -47.3 Offensive WAR which is better than one team (Texas). The Pirates strike out a lot, walk little (worst percentage in baseball), and have more home runs than three teams. The number is one if you discount Miami and St. Louis because of so many missed games. Use Woodruff with confidence Sunday.
Can anyone on the Reds score runs for Luis Castillo? The winless ace is winless in 2020 and has not received run support in his six starts. Castillo has allowed more than three earned runs once but has also had issues with efficiency. It took him 113 pitches to get through six innings in his last start and 89 in 3.1 the start prior to that.
The Reds take on the Chicago Cubs, who are projected to score four runs today. I prefer other options at pitcher and need to see the Reds win while Castillo pitches. I would rather be late to the win party with Castillo in DFS than early.
Values
Griffin Canning is intriguing. He is not pitching terribly, but there is room for improvement. It comes today as he gets the Seattle Mariners. The Los Angeles Angels have the highest Team Value Rating on the slate. Canning can give up homers (1.95 HR/9), but his $6,300 price tag on FanDuel allows a lot of roster flexibility. Please note that this game is only on the FanDuel main slate.
Tony Gonsolin has not given up a run in 14.2 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has not recorded a win in 2020 either. Gonsolin gets to face the worst Offensive WAR in baseball in the Texas Rangers (-47.3). Gonsolin will save you money but his upside is capped by his inability to pitch late into games.
Fastballs
Sandy Alcantara returns to the mound Sunday after missing a month due to COVID-19. I should not have to say this, but avoid using him today as he works his way back to game shape. The Miami Marlins offer some value depending on their opponent and Alcantara could be the benefactor over the final month of the season.
Dane Dunning is the dart throw pitcher for Sunday. At $5,500 Dunning has strikeout upside and faces a below average Kansas City Royals offense. A 30-point FanDuel outing is not out of the question.
Notable Stacks
Two of the hottest hitters in baseball are in The Bales Model’s favorite stack on FanDuel for Sunday:
- Eric Hosmer (L)
- Manny Machado (R)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- Trent Grisham (L)
Total Salary: $16,800
The San Diego Padres are playing the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, so it is no surprise to see them here. The Rockies are projected to score the second-most points via a four-player stack on FanDuel, so inserting a familiar name like Nolan Arenado or cheaper player such as Raimel Tapia makes for a solid game stack.
DraftKings has a favorable alternative as their stack:
- Rafael Devers (L)
- Xander Bogaerts (R)
- J.D. Martinez (R)
- Alex Verdugo (L)
Total Salary: $19,700
The Boston Red Sox are at home facing the Washington Nationals. Austin Voth will start for Washington and has not recorded double-digit DraftKings points in four starts and has negative points in his last two games.
Other Batters
Mike Moustakas has not been a great player in 2020, but he hits righties and his two home runs on the season have come at home. Tyler Chatwood of the Cubs is not a great pitcher, and I expect Moustakas to not be highly owned.
Joc Pederson is another lefty who mashes right-handed pitchers. He gets to tee off against Kyle Gibson of the Rangers, who has allowed 12 earned runs over his last two starts (11.2 IP).
I am paying up for Eloy Jimenez. He has two home runs and five RBIs in his last three games, and despite going hitless yesterday, he walked twice. He has been a force hitting second for the Chicago White Sox and faces Kris Bubic of the Kansas City Royals. Bubic has allowed 15 earned runs in 22.2 innings pitched.
