The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,000 on DraftKings:
- Walker Buehler (R) $12,300, LAD @ BAL
- Zac Gallen (R) $11,200, ARI @ NYM
- Lance Lynn (R) $10,500, TEX vs. TB
- Zack Wheeler (R) $10,000, NYM vs. ARI
Buehler is coming off a poor start in his last outing, allowing six earned runs over five innings vs. the Colorado Rockies. That said, he’s still been excellent over the second half of the season. He’s pitched to a 2.93 ERA and a 12.52 K/9, and he’s posted a Plus/Minus of +4.58 over his past 10 starts.
Buehler’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Baltimore Orioles. He leads the slate in both opponent implied team total (3.6 runs) and moneyline odds (-305), and the Orioles rank just 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.12 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). Buehler also has some of the best strikeout upside on the slate.
The Orioles’ projected lineup has posted a 26.3% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, so Buehler can do some damage given his increased K/9 over the second half. His K Prediction of 6.6 ranks just fifth among today’s starters, but it’s definitely a conservative estimate.
Pictured: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Walker Buehler (21), Photo Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
The only real concern with is his recent Statcast data. He’s been hit very hard over his past two outings, with opposing batters posting an average distance of 260 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 59%. All three represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages. Gallen and Wheeler are squaring off in New York, and Wheeler looks like the superior option for fantasy.
He has a slight edge in Vegas data — he’s a -123 favorite and owns a 3.8 opponent implied team total — and the Diamondbacks projected lineup has posted a .309 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. Still, it’s hard to trust Wheeler given his recent production. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -6.11 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel, and he’s pitched to a 4.70 xFIP since the All-Star break.
Gallen has been fantastic recently, and he’s coming off seven scoreless innings vs. the Padres in his last start. That said, the Mets are a big step up in weight class. Their projected lineup has posted a .349 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is one of the best splits-adjusted mark on the slate.Gallen is a much stronger option today on FanDuel, where his $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Lynn rounds out the stud quartet, and he’s the toughest option to make a case for. He’s taking on the Tampa Bay Rays, and his opponent implied team total of 4.9 runs is the highest mark in this tier by a significant margin. The Rays projected lineup has also posted a strikeout rate of just 23.2% over his past 12 months, so Lynn has diminished strikeout upside as well.
Values
Outside of Buehler, none of the stud options really stand out on today’s slate. Luckily, there are some appealing values to choose from. Chase Anderson is really affordable across the industry, and he’s in a wonderful spot vs. the Miami Marlins.
Their projected lineup has posted a .284 wOBA and 28.0% strikeout rate over the past 12 months, and Anderson’s opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs ranks second on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.54 on DraftKings. Anderson also has solid strikeout upside — he owns a K Prediction of 6.7 — and his Statcast data from his past two starts is inline with his 12-month averages. He’s a nice value option.
Trevor Bauer has really struggled since joining the Cincinnati Reds, posting an average Plus/Minus of -8.82 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings.His Statcast data from his past three starts is particularly dreadful. He’s allowed opposing batters to post an average distance of 246 feet, exit velocity of 101 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 70%. You’re not going to generate a lot of outs when batters are teeing off every time they make contact.
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer (47)
That said, he’s an interesting buy-low target vs. the Seattle Mariners. Their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 27.9% over the past 12 months, and Bauer has posted a K/9 of 10.51 over the same time frame. He should generate plenty of swings and misses in this contest, and his K Prediction of 8.3 ranks first on the slate. The Mariners also rank just 25th in wRC+ against right-handers over the second half, so they aren’t exactly crushing the ball when they put the ball in play either.
Fastballs
Jose Quintana: He benefits from an elite matchup vs. the Padres, whose projected lineup has managed a .271 wOBA an d 34.8% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months. He should also benefit from getting to face them in Petco Park, which has been one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball this season.
Jose Berrios: He stands out at just $8,000 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%. His salary has decreased by -$1,400 over the past month, so this is an opportunity to buy low on a talented pitcher.
Nate Eovaldi: He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two starts on FanDuel despite pitching just nine total innings. He could throw a few additional pitches today vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, and their projected lineup has posted a 29.4% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 2. Oscar Mercado (R)
- 3. Carlos Santana (S)
- 4. Yasiel Puig (R)
- 6. Franmil Reyes (R)
Total Salary: $21,600
The Indians are currently implied for 5.2 runs, which is pretty modest considering some of the other totals on the slate. The Cardinals lead the slate with an implied team total of 7.4 runs, and seven teams are implied for at least 5.6 runs. That said, the Indians look like one of the better values on DraftKings. Lindor, Santana, and Reyes each own a Bargain Rating of at least 75%.
Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Indians first baseman Carlos Santana (41), right fielder Yasiel Puig (66).
They have nice upside today vs. Angels left-hander Jose Suarez. He’s pitched to a 6.45 ERA and 6.52 FIP this season, and opposing batters have averaged 2.50 HRs per nine innings. Right-handed batters in particular have teed off on Suarez, posting a .419 wOBA. Each of the stacked batters will have the splits advantage in this matchup, and the Indians rank eighth in wRC+ against left-handers since the All-Star break.
Mercado in particular stands out at just $4,100. He’s posted excellent Statcast numbers over the past 15 days, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +20 feet and hard hit differential of +6 percentage points.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
- 1. Trent Grisham (L)
- 2. Yasmani Grandal (S)
- 3. Christian Yelich (L)
- 4. Eric Thames (L)
Total Salary: $13,300
The Brewers are another team who seem underpriced relative to their implied team total. They’re currently implied for 4.9 runs, and their Team Value Rating of 85 ranks sixth on FanDuel. They’re taking on Marlins right-hander Elieser Hernandez, who has pitched to a 5.23 ERA and 5.90 FIP this season.
Opposing batters have also averaged 2.24 HRs per nine innings, and the Brewers offense has plenty of pop against right-handers. Each of the stacked batters owns an ISO of at least .187 against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Yelich and Thames each own a mark of at least .275. The stacked batters also enter this contest in solid recent form. Each own a 15-day/12-month distance differential of at least +5 feet, and Grandal and Thames each own a mark of last +20 feet.
Other Batters
Brian Goodwin looks like a nice potential source of value today on FanDuel. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Angels and is priced at just $2,800. He’s also made excellent contact over the past 15 days, posting an average distance of 259 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 56%. All three represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Michael Brantley is one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. The Astros are currently implied for 5.7 runs, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. A’s right-hander Tanner Roark. Roark has struggled mightily vs. left-handed batters this season, surrendering a .369 wOBA.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Brewers SP Chase Anderson (57)
Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-USA Today Sports
