The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split slate. Both sites feature a main slate starting at 12:10 p.m. ET and a two-game late slate starting at 6:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two of today’s pitchers are priced above $10,000 on DraftKings:
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $11,100, WSH @ NYM
- Matt Boyd (L) $10,300, DET vs. MIA
The Nationals are trying to avoid getting swept in a four-game series vs. the Mets, but don’t blame their starting pitching. Erick Fedde and Max Scherzer have allowed just one combined run over 11 innings pitched, but their bullpen has blown the lead on both occasions. That’s been a problem for the Nationals this season, who have posted the worst bullpen ERA in baseball. Their relievers have pitched to a 6.61 ERA, which is the worst mark in the National League by more than a full run.
Luckily, that doesn’t affect Strasburg on today’s slate. He leads all pitchers in opponent implied team total (3.5 runs) and K Prediction (7.6), and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.99 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). The Mets have also been decimated by injuries recently, losing Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and possibly Robinson Cano to the Injured List. Their resulting projected lineup is unimpressive, posting a .301 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Strasburg also enters today’s contest in good recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 191 feet, thanks in part to a slate-best groundball rate of 61%. He figures to be the highest-owned pitcher, particularly for cash games.
Boyd got off to a roaring start this season, but he’s come back to reality over his past few starts. He’s allowed seven earned runs over his past 10.1 innings, bringing his season ERA to 3.41. Boyd has given up a lot of hard contact over that time frame, underperforming his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate.
That said, Boyd is in a nice spot to get right vs. the Miami Marlins. Their projected lineup has struggled vs. left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .283 wOBA, and they’re implied for just 3.7 runs on today’s slate. Boyd leads all pitchers with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s an intriguing buy-low option.
Value
Masahiro Tanaka is one of the best pure values at pitcher on DraftKings, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Baltimore Orioles, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .295 wOBA and 26.3% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Tanaka is the largest favorite on the slate at -202, while his opponent implied team total of 3.7 trails only Strasburg’s. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +1.73 on DraftKings.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also outstanding. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of just 177 feet, which represents a decrease of -26 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He only allowed one HR over that time frame, which is often his Achilles heel.
The only downside with Tanaka is his decreased strikeout upside this season. He’s posted a K/9 of just 8.18 through his first 10 starts, a decrease of nearly a full strikeout compared to last season.
Aaron Nola was dominant last year, but he’s struggled to begin the 2019 campaign. He’s pitched to a 4.47 ERA, which is more than two runs higher than his mark from last season.
That said, he’s coming off a gem in his last outing, racking up 12 strikeouts while allowing just one run over six innings. His strikeout ability has been his biggest saving grace this season: His K/9 of 10.32 represents a new career-best. He’s a slight underdog vs. Jon Lester and the Cubs, but his K Prediction of 7.5 ranks second on the slate.
Fastballs
Trevor Richards: Most people will likely target Boyd in this matchup, but don’t sleep on Richards. The Tigers’ projected lineup has been almost as bad as the Marlins’ over the past 12 months, posting a .291 wOBA and 25.1% strikeout vs. right-handed pitchers.
Ryan Weber: He’s pitched well in relief since joining the Red Sox, posting a 1.13 ERA with seven strikeouts over eight innings. This will be his first start of the season, but he did make five starts in AAA before being called up. He could theoretically go five innings at just $5,900 on DraftKings.
Dylan Bundy: He has a brutal matchup vs. the Yankees – his opponent implied team total of 5.4 runs is the highest on the slate – but he provides a nice combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. He owns a K Prediction of 6.7 and a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -21 feet, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.42 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
- 1. Niko Goodrum (S)
- 2. Dawel Lugo (R)
- 3. Nick Castellanos (R)
- 5. Ronny Rodriguez (R)
- 7. Josh Harrison (R)
Total Salary: $19,300
The Tigers look like an excellent source of value today. Their implied team total of 4.9 runs ranks second on the main slate, and the above stack averages out to less than $4,000 per player. The Tigers Team Value Rating of 77 is the top mark on DraftKings.
The Tigers also enter today’s game in strong recent form, headlined by Lugo. He’s absolutely smoked the ball over his past five games, averaging a 237-foot distance, 97 mile per hour exit velocity, and 53% hard hit rate. All three represent massive increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Goodrum also stands out at just $3,700. Finding a leadoff hitter with a cheap price tag is always appealing, and leadoff hitters with comparable salaries and implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +0.97 on DraftKings.
On the late slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 1. Austin Meadows (L)
- 2. Tommy Pham (R)
- 3. Ji-Man Choi (L)
- 5. Brandon Lowe (L)
Total Salary: $14,400
There are only four teams to choose from on the late slate, so expect ownership to be very condensed. That said, the Rays’ implied team total of 5.0 runs is slightly lower than the Astros’, which should help in that department. Still, you’re going to want to make sure that you’re differentiating somewhere in your lineup.
They’re taking on Indians’ right-hander Adam Plutko, who has really struggled over the past 12 months. He’s pitched to a HR/9 of 2.27, and he’s combined that with a paltry K/9 of 6.93. He was effective in his first start this season, allowing just one run over six innings, but his 4.92 FIP suggests he’s due for regression.
Plutko was crushed by left-handed batters in particular last season, allowing them to post a .437 wOBA. That bodes well for Meadows, Choi, and Lowe, all of which have posted a wOBA of at least .364 and ISO of at least .211 vs. right-handers over the past 12 months.
Other Batters
The Rockies are playing away from Coors Field, which will put them off of most people’s radar on today’s slate. That said, Raimel Tapia deserves some consideration on FanDuel, where his $2,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s facing Pirates’ right-hander Jordan Lyles, and Tapia has posted a .355 wOBA and .279 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Kyle Schwarber has a tough matchup vs. Nola, but he always has appeal vs. a right-hander for GPPs. He’s posted a .226 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months and is capable of putting the ball in the seats. He’s also expected to occupy the leadoff spot – which has historically provided a higher Plus/Minus than any other spot in the batting order – and he’s very reasonably priced at $3,700 on DraftKings.
Steve Wilkerson is an interesting option at the top of the Orioles’ lineup. He’s a switch-hitter, but he’s performed far better as a left-handed batter over the past 12 months. He’s posted a .430 wOBA and .309 ISO, which are absolutely elite marks. He should command minimal ownership vs. Tanaka, but Tanaka is always capable of a blowing up.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Tigers 3B Dawel Lugo (18)
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
