The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
We have a full night of baseball on tap for tonight with DraftKings and FanDuel offering a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest sports conversation delivered to your inbox each day.
Note: Various games have rain in the forecast Friday night so be sure to monitor their statuses up until lock on our Lineups Page.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Max Scherzer (R) $12,300, WSH vs. SD
- James Paxton (L) $11,000, NYY @ SF
- Jacob deGrom (R) $10,800, NYM vs. MIL
Per usual, Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on the mound when he’s up in the rotation. However, he’s struggled to hit value in his past four starts. His 4.45 ERA isn’t great for a pitcher of his caliber, but his 2.55 xFIP shows he’s been unlucky this season. Scherzer still boasts a 32.6% strikeout rate this year, despite the inflated ERA.
The matchup against the Padres could be a bounce-back spot for him since he’s sporting a 10.5 K Prediction against a team with a projected lineup that has a strikeout rate of 26.4% against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Not to mention the Padres rank 24th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season.
Overall, the Padres have an implied run total of just 2.9, and the Nationals are sizable -180 favorites on the moneyline. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas odds have averaged 47.48 FanDuel points per game with a +5.73 Plus/Minus and 60.9% Consistency Rating, per our Trends tool.
On deck is Paxton, who has bounced back after a slow start to the season to toss back-to-back 12-strikeout games, along with just five hits and zero earned runs across 14 innings. He’s in an exceptional spot against the Giants: Their projected lineup has a middling strikeout rate of 24.6%, but they haven’t fared well against lefties, sporting a .284 Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) and ranking 27th in wRC+.
Paxton’s 9.3 K Prediction trails only Scherzer, but the only knock on Paxton is the Yankees are only -128 on the moneyline with Madison Bumgarner pitching opposite of him. The Yankees are implied for 3.5 runs, while the Giants are implied for 3.1, respectively. This would likely keep him out of cash game consideration for me, but he’s still intriguing for tournaments given everything else in his favor.
deGrom hasn’t pitched since April 12 as he’s dealing with elbow issues. His MRI came back clean and sportsbooks don’t seem all that concerned about him since the Brewers are implied for 3.2 runs and the Mets are sporting a -177 moneyline at the time of writing.
It appears he’s healthy enough to start. deGrom boasts an 8.6 K Prediction, but the matchup doesn’t stand out with the Brewers’ middling 24.9% strikeout rate, .309 wOBA and 18th-ranked offense in wRC+.
I prefer Scherzer the most this group for cash games, but in tournaments, it could make sense to have exposure to all of them if entering multiple lineups.
Values
Hyun-jin Ryu is a good SP2 option on DraftKings with his 76% Bargain Rating. He’s been solid this season, pitching to a 2.63 xFIP with a 29.1% strikeout rate. Next up is a Pirates lineup with a 25.6% strikeout rate and awful .264 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They also rank 29th in wRC+ against them. He should be set up well in this one with his 7.4 K Prediction while the Pirates are implied for a meager 3.3 runs.
At $100 less on DraftKings, Carlos Rodon could be an excellent tournament pivot over Ryu. He’s averaged a +7.89 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 100% Consistency Rating so far this season. His 5.7 K Prediction is nothing to write home about, but it’s an appealing matchup given that the Tigers rank 24th in wRC+ and have a 27.3% strikeout rate with a .298 wOBA.
Fastballs
Jared Eickhoff: He could be an option if you’re looking to punt the position. It’s a sublime matchup against a Marlins team that ranks 27th in wRC+ against lefties, along with a 28% strikeout rate and .273 wOBA. The Phillies check in as -170 moneyline favorites while the Marlins are implied for a paltry 3.7 runs.
Max Fried: He carries a 6.9 K Prediction against a projected Rockies lineup with a high 26% strikeout rate against lefties. They also rank dead last in wRC+ against them this season. Overall, Fried and the Braves have favorable Vegas data as the Rockies are implied for 3.8 runs and the Braves are sitting with -163 moneyline odds.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Atlanta Braves.
- 1. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 2. Josh Donaldson (R)
- 3. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 5. Nick Markakis (L)
Total salary: $17,900
Oddly, with 15 games Friday night, there is only one team with an implied run total over 5.0. So, the Braves’ 4.8 implied total is the third-highest mark.
Donaldson stands out in this group with his .354 wOBA and .213 isolated power (ISO) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Not only that, but he could be headed for progression given he has a +60 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL). He’s smashing the baseball with his 242-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 64% hard-hit rate. He just doesn’t have the fantasy points to show for it (yet).
Freeman went yard Thursday night, and similar to Donaldson, he’s in tremendous form as he boasts a 256-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate.
One of the top stacks for FanDuel, when generated by projected points, belongs to the Minnesota Twins.
- 1. Max Kepler (L)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 4. Eddie Rosario (L)
Total salary: $15,000
The Twins lead Friday’s slate with their 5.3 implied run total, which results in a slate-best Team Value Rating of 82 on FanDuel.
Most of this stack will be on the positive side of their batting splits. Polanco has an elite .403 wOBA and .205 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year. He’s also in good form, boasting a 244-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity over the past two weeks. Both marks exceed his 15-day/12-month average.
Cruz could be a progression candidate with his +39 RBBL to go along with his 235-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 54% hard-hit rate. Cruz has smashed righties over the past year, hitting them to the tune of a .357 wOBA and .233 ISO. Hitters with comparable RBBL and Statcast data have historically averaged a +1.64 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
Rowdy Tellez is the top-ranked first baseman in the Bales Model for FanDuel. He could be an interesting salary-saving option with his 94% Bargain Rating. He’s obliterated right-handed pitchers, flaunting a .428 wOBA and .343 ISO over the past year. One reason he sticks out in Bales’ model is because of his excellent Statcast data. Tellez is crushing the ball, evidenced by his 253-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate. And Mike Fiers has woeful Statcast data over his past two starts, allowing opposing hitters to average a 229-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate.
Matt Carpenter owns top honors as the top overall hitter for both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Batted Ball Model. He has an absurd 265-foot average distance with a 95-mph exit velocity. His 15-day average tops his 12-month average by an outstanding 21 feet. This could pair well against Anthony DeSclafani, who’s allowed opposing hitters a 221-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity, 48% hard-hit rate and 44% fly-ball rate.
If you’re looking to pay up at shortstop, Javier Baez has throttled lefties over the past year, owning a .449 wOBA and .333 ISO against them. He also has positive differentials in his Statcast data, having a +35 distance differential, +4-mph exit velocity and a +6% hard-hit differential. Historically, hitters who are hitting the top four of the order with comparable differentials have averaged a +2.01 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
