The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings and FanDuel will offer an eight-game all-day slate, along with a two-game early slate starting at 12:35 p.m. ET.
Both five-game main slates begin at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $10,800 CLE at HOU
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,600, HOU vs. CLE
- Zach Greinke (R) $10,200, ARI @ PIT
Bauer will be pitching opposite of Cole in this ace vs. ace matchup. Cole and the Astros are a -160 favorite.
Bauer has the worse matchup of the two against a projected Astros lineup with a low 18.7% strikeout rate and .338 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Additionally, the Astros rank fifth in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season. Bauer’s price tag could be a bit much considering he has a 7.3 K Prediction, which isn’t bad, but Cole is sitting at 9.0, and he’s $200 cheaper than Bauer on FanDuel.
The Indians’ 22% strikeout rate and .325 wOBA is slightly worse than the Astros’ marks, but they rank just 27th in wRC+ against righties this year. However, if we’re just looking at strikeouts for this season, the Indians 25.6% strikeout rate is the fifth-highest mark. Cole has had a few rough outings this year, but his 2.66 xFIP is nearly three runs lower than his 5.22 ERA, suggesting he’s been unlucky thus far.
Our models presently project Cole with the highest median projection on the main slate.
Despite being an underdog on the early slate, Greinke is the most-expensive pitcher. That could be a hard price to swallow since he has a weak 5.8 K Prediction against a Pirates team that has a 22.8% strikeout rate against righties over the past year. That said, he’s probably the safest option on the early slate as the Pirates have a mediocre .291 wOBA and rank 22nd in wRC+ against righties this season.
Even though Greinke an underdog, the Pirates are implied for a paltry 3.7 runs.
Values
Value options are thin on Thursday with just five games on the main slate.
Rick Porcello has a 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and costs only $6,700. He’s hit value just once this year, but the matchup is at least intriguing against a projected Tigers lineup that has a 25.2% strikeout rate and .287 wOBA, while ranking 25th in wRC+. The Tigers’ 4.0 implied run total is one of the lower marks on the main slate, and the Red Sox check in as massive -186 moneyline favorites.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola: He’s an intriguing option if you don’t want to pay up for Bauer or Cole. It’s an elite matchup against a Marlins team that ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties this year and has a 26.4% strikeout rate and .282 wOBA over the past year against them. The Marlins are implied for a meager 3.1 runs while the Phillies are sizeable -192 moneyline favorites. Nola’s median projection narrowly trails Cole for the second-highest on the slate.
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Nola
Marco Gonzales: He’s averaged a +1.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 60% Consistency Rating this season, but he doesn’t have much upside with his 5.1 K Prediction. He’s more of an SP2 option on DraftKings if you’re looking to save some salary. The Mariners carry favorable odds with their -164 moneyline, and the Rangers are implied for just 3.8 runs.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man all-day DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 2. Mookie Betts (R)
- 3. Mitch Moreland (L)
- 4. J.D. Martinez (R)
Total salary: $18,200
The Red Sox presently own a robust 5.6 implied run total against right-hander Jordan Zimmermann. Considering there are only eight games on the all-day late and five games on the main slate, the Red Sox figure to be a popular team to target.
Betts is flaunting a .421 wOBA and .268 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Martinez is in a similar boat, sporting an elite .436 wOBA and .291 ISO. Benintendi, Martinez and Moreland are in solid form, sporting average batted-ball distance over 236 feet with exit velocities above 93-mph.
This should bode well for the hitter since Zimmermann has allowed a 224-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
The top four-man non-Red Sox FanDuel stack on the main slate when generated by projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
- 1. Andrew McCutchen(R)
- 2. J.T. Realmuto (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 4. Rhys Hoskins (R)
Total salary: $15,500
The Phillies will very much be a boom-or-bust option on Thursday. They’ll be squaring off against Caleb Smith, who has been dominant this season, sporting a 33.3% strikeout rate and 2.95 xFIP. This should suppress their ownership, even on a five-game slate.
Harper leads this stack with 34.5-point ceiling projection in our models. He’s hit lefties well over the past 12 months with a.379 wOBA and .235 ISO. Harper is in a bit of a slump, averaging a -2.10 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past 10 games, but he’s been able to generate a decent amount of hard contact over the past 15 days, possessing a 92-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
Christian Walker has been great over his last 10 games, averaging a +5.15 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 60% Consistency Rating. He demolishes right-handed pitchers, evidenced by his .428 wOBA and .338 ISO. He’s also sporting absurd Statcast data over the past two weeks with his monstrous 251-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 69% hard-hit rate.
Edwin Encarnacion and Dan Vogelbach are separated by $600 on DraftKings and $300 on FanDuel. Both are intriguing options in tournaments if you’re looking to move away from Mitch Moreland and the Red Sox. Encarnacion has a solid .375 wOBA and .230 ISO against lefties over the past year, while Vogelbach checks in with a .340 wOBA and .375 ISO. Granted, he’ll be on the negative side of his wOBA splits. Overall, both hitters carry top-five ceiling projections in our models.
Mitch Haniger is intriguing from the leadoff spot for the Mariners. Their 4.8 implied run total is one of the higher totals on the slate. Historically, leadoff hitters featured in games with comparable implied run totals have averaged a +1.11 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Haniger is also in good form, possessing a 236-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Gerrit Cole
Photo credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
