The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate that differs by site. DraftKings has a five-game early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. FanDuel has a three-game early slate at 1:05 p.m. ET, a three-game afternoon slate at 4:05 p.m. ET, and a nine-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers on today’s slates stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $11,500, LAD @ ARI
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $11,200, WSH vs. MIA
Plenty of pundits were questioning if Kershaw was still an elite starter after a mediocre first half, but it appears reports of his demise were premature. He’s been absolutely dominant since the All-Star break, pitching to a 2.12 ERA. More importantly, he’s rediscovered his elite strikeout stuff, averaging 12 strikeouts per nine innings.
That said, Kershaw has been hit pretty hard over his past two outings. Opposing batters have averaged a batted ball distance of 231 feet, which represents an increase of +30 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
He’s also in a mediocre spot today vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their projected lineup has posted a .315 wOBA and 23.2% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months, and they rank eighth in wRC+ when facing a southpaw at home this season. They’re currently implied for 3.7 runs, and Kershaw is merely a -146 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.70 (per the Trends tool).
It’s tough to completely write Kershaw off given how dominant he’s been recently, but he’s better suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on today’s slate.
Strasburg stands out as a better option than Kershaw in virtually every metric. He has an elite matchup vs. the Miami Marlins, who rank just 29th in wRC+ against right-handers this season. They’re currently implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs, and Strasburg’s -289 moneyline odds also make him the largest favorite today. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically been excellent investments, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.70 on FanDuel.
The Marlins’ projected lineup has also struck out in 29.8% of at bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Strasburg immense strikeout upside. He’s averaged a K/9 of 10.58 this season, and he’s recorded 29 strikeouts over 22.1 previous innings vs. the Marlins. His K Prediction of 7.9 is a conservative estimate, but it still ranks second on the slate.
Strasburg has also pitched well over his past two starts, limiting opposing batters to an average distance of just 184 feet. That represents a decrease of -15 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Overall, there’s really nothing not to like with Strasburg on today’s slate.
Values
Dallas Kuechel is another pitcher with an elite matchup today. He’s taking on the Chicago White Sox, who rank just 23rd in wRC+ against southpaws since the All-Star break. Their projected lineup has also posted a strikeout rate of 33.0% against left-handers over the past 12 months, which is the highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Where Kuechel really makes his mark with his Statcast data, and he couldn’t enter today’s contest in better recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 153 feet, which represents a decrease of -33 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with a comparable distance differential have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.89 on FanDuel.
He’s also one of the past pure values on FanDuel, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Framber Valdez is a really interesting option on the early slate. He’s priced at just $5,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he benefits from getting to pitch for an elite offensive team in the Astros. His opponent-implied team total of 4.6 runs is pretty mediocre, but he’s still a -170 favorite vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.80 on DraftKings.
Valdez also provides an interesting combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. He’s pitched to a K/9 of 8.52 this season, and he limited his most recent opponent to an average distance of 145 feet. He’s simply too cheap at just $5,500.
Fastballs
Cole Hamels: He’s one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He has a tough matchup vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, but he should benefit from getting to pitch at home in Chicago. He’s pitched to a 2.63 ERA at Wrigley this season compared to a 5.16 ERA on the road.
Trevor Bauer: He’s struggled as a member of the Cincinnati Reds, which makes this an interesting buy-low opportunity. His salary has decreased by $1,600 over the past month on FanDuel, and he leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 8.1 vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.
Robbie Ray: He’s always going to have appeal in GPPs given his elite strikeout upside. He’s pitched to a K/9 of 11.92 over the past 12 months, which is the top mark among today’s pitchers. He also pitched well in his last start, limiting opposing batters to an average distance of 203 feet and hard hit rate of 27%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the New York Yankees:
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Luke Voit (R)
- 4. Didi Gregorius (L)
- 9. Mike Tauchman (L)
Total Salary: $22,300
The Yankees stand out as an elite option on the early slate. They’re currently implied for 6.3 runs, and they also represent one of the best pure values. Their Team Value Rating of 82 ranks first on DraftKings, and Judge and Gregorius each own Bargain Ratings of at least 87%.
They’re taking on A’s right-hander Homer Bailey, who has pitched to a 5.04 ERA this season. The Yankees have also been one of the best offensive teams in baseball over the second-half of the season, ranking fourth in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
The only problem with the Yankees is their likely ownership on a small slate, but including projected No. 9 hitter Tauchman should help. He’s more offensively capable than your typical bottom-of-the-order batter – he’s posted a 114 wRC+ against right-handers this season – and he also enters this contest in strong recent form. He’s exceeded his 12-month averages in distance and hard hit rate over the past 15 days.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Trevor Story (R)
- 2. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 5. Ryan McMahon (L)
Total Salary: $16,800
The Rockies are playing at home in Coors, which obviously makes them a team worth considering. Their implied team total of 6.9 runs ranks second on the slate, and they have a solid matchup vs. Pirates right-hander Joe Musgrove. He’s pitched to a 4.67 ERA this season, including a 5.73 ERA over the second-half of the season.
The Rockies have recently changed up their lineup, moving Story into the leadoff spot. He’s fared well in that role, going 3-7 with two walks. He stands out as one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Other Batters
The Pirates lead the slate with an implied team total of 7.2 runs, which will make them one of the most popular team targets on the slate. Brian Reynolds stands out as one of their best options. He’s crushed right-handed pitching over the past 12 months, posting a .416 wOBA and .203 ISO, and his $3,900 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 94% on FanDuel.
Manny Machado’s price tag continues to plummet on DraftKings, and he’s been priced down to just $3,900 for today’s matchup vs. the San Francisco Giants. That said, he’s made excellent contact over the past 15 days, resulting in a distance differential of +22 feet when compared to his 12-month average. His Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +73 on DraftKings suggests he’s been extremely unlucky of late, which makes this an interesting buy-low opportunity.
Mark Canha’s nine Pro Trends on DraftKings are tied with Judge for the top mark on the early slate, and his Statcast data from the past 15 days is absolutely elite. He’s posted an average distance of 248 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 51%, all of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw (22)
Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA Today Sports
