The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate. There’s a 10-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a four-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate are priced above the rest on FanDuel:
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,900, HOU @ TOR
- Patrick Corbin (L) $11,200, WSH vs. MIA
- Lucas Giolito (R) $10,700, CWS @ ATL
The only thing that can stop Verlander these days is an ejection. He allowed zero earned runs over 5.1 innings his last start before getting tossed for arguing balls and strikes. The start dropped his ERA to 2.69 this season, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.19 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel.
Verlander is a strong option today vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. They have improved to 11th in wRC+ against right-handers over the second half of the season, but remain one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league. Their projected lineup has whiffed in 27.9% of at bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Verlander a strong 8.0 K Prediction.
Verlander is also getting a ton of respect from Vegas. His -286 moneyline odds rank first on the slate, while his 3.3 opponent implied team total ranks tied for first. Add it all up, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.96 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
As strong as Verlander looks on today’s slate, Corbin might be the superior option. He possesses similar Vegas data – 3.3 opponent implied team total, -246 moneyline odds – in an elite matchup vs. the Marlins. They rank 28th in wRC+ against southpaws this season, and their projected lineup has posted a 27.9% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Credit: Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin.
Corbin also enters today’s contest in elite recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 187 feet, which represents a decrease of -29 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and distance differentials have historically been elite options, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.12 on FanDuel.
Corbin doesn’t possess as much strikeout upside as Verlander – he owns a K Prediction of just 6.6 – but he appears to be the safer option for cash games.
Giolito is not in the same tier as Verlander and Corbin. He has a brutal matchup vs. the Atlanta Braves, who rank seventh in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. They’re currently implied for 5.0 runs, which is a well below mark for Giolito considering his salary.
That said, he should carry minimal ownership, which makes him an interesting pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He provides a nice combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. His K Prediction of 8.0 is tied for second on the slate, and he’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -26 feet. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.53 on DraftKings.
Values
Michael Pineda has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Detroit Tigers. They rank dead last in wRC+ against right-handers this season, and they’ve also posted highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Traditional pitchers have unsurprisingly found a lot of success against the Tigers this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.56 on DraftKings.
Pineda has excellent Vegas data in this matchup, owning a 3.9 opponent implied team total and -203 moneyline odds, and his 7.3 K Prediction ranks fourth on the main slate.
Pineda has also pitched extremely well over his past two outings. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 195 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 28%, all of which represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Pineda is one of the better values of the day on DraftKings, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 65%.
Julio Teheran stands out as an elite value on FanDuel, where his $7,300 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s opposing Giolito and the White Sox, whose projected lineup has posted a .282 wOBA and 36.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Teheran isn’t exactly a strikeout pitcher – he’s pitched to a K/9 of 8.39 this season – but he has more upside than usual on today’s slate.
Teheran is also a -147 favorite, and his 4.1 opponent implied team total is the sixth-lowest mark of the day.
Fastballs
Yu Darvish: He has a difficult matchup vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, but he also has arguably the most strikeout upside on the slate. He’s pitched to 10.81 K/9 over the past 12 months, and the Brewers’ projected lineup has a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 34.3% over the same time frame.
Jeff Samardzija: He has a solid matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, and he’s pitched to a 3.17 ERA at Oracle Park in San Francisco this season. He’s also outperformed his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard hit rate over the past 15 days, which makes him a nice option on the afternoon slate.
Charlie Morton: He’s struggled mightily over his past two starts, allowing nine earned runs over nine innings pitched, and he’s in a brutal spot today vs. the Cleveland Indians. That said, Morton is still one of the more talented pitchers in the league, and his $9,000 price tag on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Max Kepler (L)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 5. Miguel Sano (R)
Total Salary: $15,000
The Twins are currently implied for 5.7 runs, which ranks third on the FanDuel main slate. They get a boost from the Coors Field game being omitted: Both the Pirates and Rockies each have an implied team total of at least 7.0 runs.
Credit: Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz (23) celebrates with center fielder Max Kepler (26).
The Twins also stand out as one of the best pure values on FanDuel. Their Team Value Rating of 85 ranks second, and Kepler and Cruz both own Bargain Ratings of at least 92%.
They’re taking on Tigers right-hander Spencer Turnbull, who has been pretty mediocre this season. He’s pitched to a 4.18 ERA and 4.79 xFIP, and he’s allowed left-handed batters to post a .357 wOBA. Turnbull has also been hit extremely hard over his past two starts, allowing opposing batters to compile an average distance of 237 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 57%.
The Twins rank fifth in wRC+ against right-handers this season, so they can definitely do some damage in this matchup.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- 1. Greg Garcia (L)
- 2. Josh Naylor (L)
- 3. Manny Machado (R)
- 4. Eric Hosmer (L)
- 5. Hunter Renfroe (R)
Total Salary: $19,100
The afternoon slate is expected to be lower scoring than the main slate, and the Padres implied team total of 4.3 runs is pedestrian. That said, their top stack is really inexpensive, and it should also command minimal ownership. Targeting a low-owned stack on a small slate can give you massive leverage on the rest of the field if it goes off or if some of the top offensive options struggle.
Garica, Naylor and Hosmer will each have the splits advantage against Samardzija, while Machado and Renfroe have both exceeded their 12-month average distance over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
It’s really hard to fade Mookie Betts today, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s absolutely smoked the ball over his past 11 games, posting an average distance of 247 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 65%. He leads the afternoon slate with 12 Pro Trends, and he’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits against Angels left-hander Andrew Heaney.
Trent Grisham is expected to bat leadoff for the Brewers today at just $3,000 on DraftKings, which makes him an appealing value option. He’s a great way to fit in an expensive stack or pitcher on the main slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Astros SP Justin Verlander (35)
Photo credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
