The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s an 11-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a three-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates feature three of the best pitchers in all of baseball:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,900, NYM @ BOS
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,700, HOU vs. ARI
- Chris Sale (L) $11,500, BOS vs. NYM
DeGrom and Sale will be squaring off in a battle of Cy Young-caliber pitchers, but don’t expect that battle to last very long. Sale will be making just his second start since coming off the disabled list and is only scheduled to pitch for about three innings. Even though the Mets have been abysmal vs. left-handers in 2018, that’s not enough time for him to have any fantasy viability. He was still owned at 4% in his last start in the lower stakes tournaments, so fading Sale could give you a nice edge on today’s slate.
DeGrom will have no such limitations, but the Red Sox represent a brutal matchup for right-handed pitchers. Their projected lineup has posted a .342 wOBA and a strikeout rate of just 20.8% over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 4.5 runs is virtually unprecedented against deGrom. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in 26 straight starts, and he’s only had an opponent implied team total of 4.5 runs or greater in two other starts this season. That said, his Vegas data shouldn’t be a huge deterrent in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs): He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +20.48 and a Consistency Rating of 100% in three starts win an opponent implied team total of at least 4.0 runs in 2018 (per the Trends tool).
One factor working in deGrom’s favor today is his recent Statcast data. He’s held his past two opponents to an average distance of 175 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 20%, all three of which represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. His K Prediction of 7.4 is also tied for the top mark on the slate, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and recent Statcast data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.75 on FanDuel. This seems like the rare opportunity to get deGrom at reduced ownership, which is definitely appealing.
Verlander will likely be the most popular stud option on today’s slate. He’s taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks and owns some strong Vegas data: 3.2 opponent implied team total, -186 moneyline odds. His K Prediction of 7.4 with also tied with deGrom’s, and he represents the best value among the stud pitchers on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75%.
Like deGrom, Verlander also enters today’s contest in good Statcast form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 191 feet, which represents a decrease of -28 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and distance differentials have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.23 on FanDuel.
Values
Nick Pivetta has been poor from a fantasy perspective over his past two starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of -14.12 on FanDuel. That said, it belies some really good Statcast data, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -29 and hard hit differential of -8 percentage points. He always has big strikeout upside given his 12-month K/9 of 10.54, so he has a lot of upside if he can limit the damage on balls in play.
He has an excellent matchup today vs. the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted a .275 wOBA and 25.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. There’s no Vegas data available on this game yet, but they’ll likely have one of the lowest implied team totals of the day.
The Giants managed to win a game yesterday, but their offensive woes continue. They scored just three runs, which brings their per-game average to just 2.5 runs over their past 18 games. Their projected lineup has also posted the worst splits-adjusted wOBA of .242, while their strikeout rate of 26.0% is the third highest.
Unlike yesterday, you’re not going to have to spend an arm and a leg to target the anemic Giants offense. Antonio Senzatela is priced at just $6,000 on FanDuel and $6,300 on DraftKings, and pitchers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.48 and a Consistency Rating of 69.2% on DraftKings when facing the Giants during the month of September.
Fastballs
Lance Lynn: He has a difficult matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has posted a .341 wOBA and 21.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. That said, his Vegas data is still impressive, leading all pitchers with -215 moneyline odds. His Recent Batted Ball Luck of +74 on FanDuel also suggests he’s due for some progression moving forward.
Shane Bieber: He’s another massive favorite, owning -213 moneyline odds vs. the Detroit Tigers. He also has decent strikeout upside given the Tigers’ strikeout rate of 23.0% against right-handers in 2018.
Marco Gonzales: The options on the afternoon slate are weak outside of Senzatela, which could make Gonzales an intriguing options vs. the Angels. Their projected lineup has averaged a .298 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months and Gonzales has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -16 feet.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
- 2. Yolmer Sanchez (S)
- 3. Daniel Palka (L)
- 5. Avisail Garcia (R)
- 6. Omar Narvaez (L)
Total Salary: $11,500
The White Sox are implied for 5.0 runs on today’s slate, which makes them a really nice value on FanDuel given their current salaries. The result is a Team Value Rating of 83, which is the second best mark on the slate. They’re taking on Orioles right-hander David Hess, who has pitched to a 1.38 WHIP and 1.65 HR/9 over the past 12 months. He’s also underperformed his 12-month marks in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over his past two starts, which is particularly problematic given his pedestrian strikeout numbers.
Conversely, the White Sox enter today’s contest in good recent form, with each of the stacked batters owning a positive 15-day/12-month distance differential. Sanchez, Palka, and Narvaez will also own the splits advantage vs. Hess.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to Texas Rangers:
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Rougned Odor (L)
- 3. Elvis Andrus (R)
- 4. Nomar Mazara (L)
- 5. Adrian Beltre (R)
Total Salary: $21,900
The Rangers lead the afternoon slate with an implied team total of 4.5 runs, which will likely make them the most popular stacking target. Stacking them in the above 1-2-3-4-5 manner will likely be particularly chalky, so you’ll need to keep that in mind with the rest of your roster selections.
That said, it’s hard not to like the Rangers today vs. Padres right-hander Jacob Nix. He’s pitched to a 6.00 ERA through his first six starts in 2018 and has managed a K/9 of just 4.80. He’s also been hit particularly hard in his past two starts, resulting in an average distance of 253 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 43%.
The Rangers are also in awesome recent form. Choo has posted some of the most impressive Statcast data in the league this season and owns a 58% hard hit rate over his past 11 games. Andrus, Mazara, and Beltre are also swinging the bat really well at the moment, with each owning a distance differential of at least +26 feet over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
The Yankees are implied for a whopping 5.8 runs today, which makes projected leadoff hitter Andrew McCutchen an intriguing option. He’s priced at just $3,400 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97%, and has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +37 feet. Historically, leadoff hitters with comparable implied team totals and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.71 on FanDuel.
Marwin Gonzalez is a cheap batter worth considering on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,300 and is expected to occupy the cleanup spot in the lineup. He’s also on the positive side of his bating splits against Zack Greinke, owning a .341 wOBA and .170 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, and he’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +30 feet.
Josh Donaldson recently made his way off the disabled list for the Cleveland Indians, who are implied for 5.5 runs on today’s slate. They’re facing Tigers left-hander Francisco Liriano, and Donaldson has posted a .433 wOBA and .371 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He owns nine Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $3,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Jacob deGrom
Photo credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
