Wednesday’s MLB DFS main slate features 11 games and begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Wednesday is the day to start elite pitchers and watch them eat.
Here are the high-priced options on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,900, NYY vs TB
- Jacob deGrom (R) $10,700 NYM @ MIA
- Lance Lynn (R) $9,700 TEX @ SD
- Aaron Civale (R) $9,700 CLE @ PIT
Jacob deGrom continues to be a model of consistency.
Heading into his start against the Marlins, he’s pitching on par with his career averages across the board. Name a stat and he’s within range of it — except one: deGrom’s hard-hit percentage has jumped almost 14% to 43.4%. This comes at the expense of his medium-hit percentage and ties into him throwing 15% fewer fastballs. He has added velocity to his fastball, though, as well as his slider and changeup.
deGrom gets a Marlins team that ranks bottom-five in slugging and hard-hit percentage, but walk at a 10.5% rate, good for eighth in MLB. If deGrom can avoid walks and the middle of the zone, he should coast. deGrom ranks first in the Bales Model Player Rater on FanDuel and second on DraftKings.
Gerrit Cole ranks second on FanDuel and first on DraftKings in the Bales Model. It makes sense because his opponent enjoys striking out: Tampa Bay strikes out at the sixth-highest rate in baseball despite being one of the better offenses. Cole could be pitching a three-true-outcome game: Strikeout, home run, walk. His strikeout rate is right with his career average, walks are down, but home runs are up.
Cole’s Expected Earned Run Average (xERA) is 3.02 compared to his actual ERA of 2.76, meaning he should be giving up one quarter a run more per nine innings pitched. Tampa is a capable offense that could take advantage of this, but Cole is an elite pitcher. The Rays are projected to score 3.6 runs and are Vegas dogs at +183.
Lance Lynn is the only pitcher on the main slate who has a Consistency Rating of 100% on the Bales Model. Lynn’s pricing on DraftKings is also enticing because he’s priced as the sixth best pitcher while ranking fourth in the Bales Model. Lynn has a tougher matchup against the San Diego Padres. The Friars are anchored by the uber-talented Fernando Tatis Jr. and rank in the top 10 in slugging percentage, offensive WAR, hard-hit percentage and walk percentage.
Lynn will have to miss bats and take advantage of San Diego’s ballpark; it ranks as one of the best for pitchers. The righty also ranks fourth in the Bales Model in expected strikeouts per 9 innings.
Aaron Civale has the best matchup on paper and stats to back up the love, but the Bales Model does not like his chances against the Pirates.
I understanding why the model ranks Civale lower with the previous pitchers, but there are some important factors to consider: First, the Pirates are not good. Pittsburgh sports the second-worst batting average, slugging percentage and offensive WAR. The offense is allergic to walks (7.5%) and it shows in their league-worst on-base percentage (.276).
Second, Civale’s xERA and Expected Fielder Independent Pitching scores are lower than his 3.60 ERA: There’s room for improvement from an already impressive pitcher.
Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Civale
A fun factor in the Bales Model is umpire rankings. Hal Gibson III is manning the plate in this game and he ranks as a top 10 ump for pitchers. The seventh-ranked Civale could reach his upside projection on Wednesday.
Values
Chris Paddack is third behind deGrom and Cole on the Player Rater and is a great price pivot on FanDuel and DraftKings. Paddack is opposed by Lynn, but the Rangers’ offense is an easy target. Texas is bottom-10 in all traditional hitting categories, as well as offensive WAR. The Rangers project to score 3.6 runs, tied for third-fewest on the main slate.
Fastballs
Considering how many aces or ace-like starters there are on the main slate, it is a shame that Trevor Bauer is the probable starter for the second game of a doubleheader against Kansas City today. Please note that the game will not be on the main slate.
Rich Hill is making his first start after a stint on the 10-day IL and gets the Brewers in a favorable matchup. The biggest concern with Hill is upside because I cannot see him pitching deep into the game. The soft-tossing 40-year faces a lineup with the worst Hard-Hit Percentage in baseball.
Casey Mize makes his major league debut against the White Sox. The matchup is less than ideal, but he’s opposed by another debut starter Dane Dunning. Mize could have win upside if the Tigers can chase Dunning early and he delivers on his above-average pitching repertoire.
Notable Stacks
Death. Taxes. Stack teams in Colorado. The Houston Astros top FanDuel and DraftKings today:
- Yuli Gurriel (R)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Carlos Correa (R)
- George Springer (R)
Total Salary: $15,600
This quad projects to score 59.6 FanDuel points against right-hander Ryan Castellani. He has the lowest pitcher rating using the Bales Model. Houston is projected to score a slate-high 6.9 runs.
The Colorado Rockies are second best stack against the Astros:
- Garrett Hampson (R)
- Nolan Arenado (R)
- Trevor Story (R)
- Charlie Blackmon (L)
Total Salary: $16,400
The price difference between the two is a bummer because the Rockies stack is projected to score seven fewer points than the Astros stack on FanDuel. The Rockies stack is priced lower than the Astros grouping on DraftKings by $2,200 and projects to score four fewer points. Both stacks should see decent ownership.
Another way to attack these stacks is to use a game stack. Garrett Hampson is the highest-rated player on both sites and could slide in for Carlos Correa, the lowest-rated Astro in their stack. George Springer was scratched Tuesday with a sore wrist, so that could be the other option that would save a fair amount of money. If you are feeling squirrely, add Hampson to the four-player Astros stack, too.
Other Batters
Dansby Swanson is almost an auto-lock for me at shortshop. He is producing as a leadoff hitter and Vegas is a fan of the Braves against Eric Fedde and the Nationals. The Braves’ projected run total has risen to 5.6, a great number with Swanson projected to bat first.
Aaron Hicks does not hit for average, but he walks. Hicks is walking 21% of the time in 2020 and is hitting the ball harder than he ever has. The Yankees are an elite offense and Hicks is giving the meat of that lineup RBI opportunities. He’s the third-rated outfielder on FanDuel according to the Bales Model.
Travis d’Arnaud is the second-best option at C/1B on FanDuel using the Bales Model. How impressive is that? The only player above him is teammate Freddie Freeman. The Nationals bullpen is ripe for the picking beyond starter Eric Fedde. According to the Bales Model, the Nationals bullpen has an Opponent Bullpen score of 97. The higher the number, the more overworked that bullpen is. d’Arnaud is an excellent option on a good offense.
