The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features seven games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Lucas Giolito ($9,500) – Chicago White Sox (-149) at Chicago Cubs
Giolito has a 14.14 K/9 and 18.3% swinging-strike rate. The Cubs are 12th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching and are 23rd in ISO. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and the Cubs are implied for only 3.3 runs. There are five Pro Trends in favor of Giolito.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Kyle Bradish ($5,500) – Baltimore Orioles (+115) vs. Minnesota Twins
Bradish made his MLB debut last start and went six innings, allowing five hits (one home run) and one walk while striking out two. He averaged 94 mph on the fastball and had a swinging strike rate of 9.9%. The floor is low, but there is some upside considering the price. While Minnesota is 13th in ISO against right-handed pitching, Camden Yards has so far been 29th in runs scored. The Twins are also seventh in strikeouts.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kyle Hendricks ($7,400) – Chicago Cubs (+127) vs. Chicago White Sox
Many will eschew Hendricks due to his -4.26 DraftKings points outing last start. Recency bias is a helluva drug. In the other three starts, he put up 22.5, 13.54, and 18.59 DraftKings points. Hendricks is not a strikeout artist, but when he’s on, he keeps batters off-balance and induces soft contact. The winds are blowing in from left field, and the Brewers are implied for only 3.9 runs.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Washington Nationals:
- Cesar Hernandez (1) ($3,900)
- Juan Soto (2) ($5,000)
- Nelson Cruz (3) ($4,000)
- Josh Bell (4) ($4,600)
- Keibert Ruiz (6) ($4,100)
There is a good chance of rain, and the winds will be blowing in from left field at 11 mph. That said, it’s Coors Field, and the postponement risk seems to be muted. Austin Gomber is on the mound for the Rockies, and he’s been decent. He’s a groundball pitcher who has actually been better at home than on the road. The HR/9 is 0.81 at home compared to 1.35 on the road. The FIP is 3.81 at home versus 4.47 on the road. Go figure.
It should also be noted that ownership projections do factor into the Tournament Model, so it’s likely this stack isn’t leading once those projections populate.
Be sure to check the Player Models later to see if the recommendation has changed.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
Note: Projections may change and influence the top stacks as the day progresses.
The Brewers get to face Vladimir Gutierrez, who has a 5.82 K/9, 7.94 BB/9, and 6.66 FIP in 17 innings this season. The swinging strike is a minuscule 6.6%. The Brewers are implied for 4.8 runs, and American Family Field has been the best park for home runs this season. Gutierrez has historically had issues with lefties, allowing a .264 ISO and 43.7% flyball rate while only striking out 14%.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Aaron Judge OF ($5,900 DraftKings) – New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi)
Over the last 10 games, Judge has hit eight home runs and driven in 17. The slash has been .357/.386/.976 with a ridiculous .619 ISO. Translation: He’s on fire. In his career against left-handed pitching, he’s posted a .275/.414/.572 slash with a .297 ISO. Yusei Kikuchi has really struggled so far this season. The K/9 is only 7.98 while the BB/9 is 7.98, and the HR/9 is 1.84. He has a 6.62 FIP. Against righties, the K-BB% is -7.4 while the FIP is 6.85.
Giancarlo Stanton OF ($4,600 DraftKings) – New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi)
I guess we are stacking the Yankees’ righties. Last season, Stanton had a .238 ISO against left-handed pitching. He has been struggling a bit against lefties this season but over his career, he’s been much better against them. The career slash is .290/.388/.610 with a .320 ISO compared to .262/.348/.520 with a .258 ISO against righties.
Cedric Mullins 2B ($4,100 DraftKings) – Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins (Dylan Bundy)
Bundy has been, dare I say, very good this season. That’s a dramatic change from last season when he posted a 5.51 FIP and 1.99 HR/9. Many of the metrics support his success as well. The FIP is 2.93, and the swinging strike rate has climbed back up to 12.2%. That said, much of his success has been due to the fastball usage. Is that sustainable? We shall see. Regardless, Mullins had a .281 ISO against fastballs last season, and he’s on a four-game hitting streak right now. In addition, there is some stolen base equity here as well. Bundy may continue pitching well, but I can see Mullins putting one into the right-field seats.
