The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features five games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Lucas Giolito ($9,900) – Chicago White Sox (-175) vs. Boston Red Sox
The matchup isn’t great as Boston is 26th in strikeouts and sixth in ISO against right-handed pitching. That said, Giolito has the best swing-and-miss stuff on the slate. In 31.2 innings this season, the K/9 is 12.51, while the swinging-strike rate is 14.3%. He has the highest K Prediction on the slate and has five Pro Trends backing him. Boston is projected for a slate-low 3.6 runs.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Tyler Wells ($5,300) – Baltimore Orioles (+143) at New York Yankees
The Yankees have a ton of right-handed power bats, and that’s a problem for Wells since he allowed a .215 ISO with a 54.1% fly-ball rate to righties since last season. That said, he faced the Yankees in his first start this season in New York and went five innings, allowing two earned runs with one home run while striking out four without a walk. He has scored double-digit DraftKings points in four of five starts and has a Bargain Rating of 90%. He is the only pitcher priced below $6,000.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Charlie Morton ($9,000) – Atlanta Braves (-163) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are 12th in strikeouts and 13th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Lucas Giolito is projected to be the highest-rostered pitcher on the slate. Cristian Javier is second, with Morton right below him.
While Javier has a few points in projection on Morton, the K Prediction is much lower, with Javier below 6 and Morton at 6.32. Morton and Giolito are the only pitchers above 6.
Javier is projected to be rostered on 10% more teams, though.
The Phillies are projected for only 3.8 runs, and Atlanta is -163 on the moneyline.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model, when generated by median projections belongs to the Houston Astros:
- Jose Altuve (1) ($5,500)
- Michael Brantley (2) ($3,800)
- Alex Bregman (3) ($4,800)
- Yordan Alvarez (4) ($5,200)
- Kyle Tucker (6) ($4,900)
The Astros are implied for the most runs on the slate with 5.1. They get to face Cal Quantrill, who has a 5.44 K/9, 7.3% swinging-strike rate, and 4.02 FIP in 41.1 innings. He has done a good job limiting power to righties, as the ISO is only .108 against them since last season. Against lefties, though, the ISO is .164 with a 43.7% fly-ball rate.
Yordan Alvarez has a .300 ISO against right-handed pitching while Kyle Tucker is at .247.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels are implied for 5.0 runs and get to face Glenn Otto, who has a 6.66 K/9, 4.81 BB/9, 1.48 HR/9, and 5.63 FIP in 24.1 innings this season. Since last season, the ISO allowed to lefties has been .164 while it’s been .177 to righties.
Otto throws a 92 mph fastball over 40% to both righties and lefties. Shohei Ohtani has a .306 ISO against that pitch, Mike Trout is at .292, and Jared Walsh is at .167.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Corey Seager SS ($4,600 DraftKings) – Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
With the lefty/lefty matchup, the ownership could come in a little lower for Seager, which is a good thing for us because he has mashed left-handed pitching this season. Granted, it’s only been 57 plate appearances, but he has four home runs and a .280/.351/.540 slash against them. Detmers has allowed two home runs to lefties in nine innings this season.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,200 DraftKings) – New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (Tyler Wells)
Since last Monday, Judge has a .343/.410/.829 slash with five home runs. Against right-handed pitching this season, the slash is .345/.413/.743 with a .398 ISO. Wells has allowed a .215 ISO and 54.1% fly-ball rate since last season to righties.
AJ Pollock OF ($3,200 DraftKings) – Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox (Rich Hill)
Pollock will likely bat third in the lineup and is very cheap. Against left-handed pitching this season, he has two home runs and a .261/.261/.565 slash with a .304 ISO. In his career, the slash is .285/.336/.522 with a .238 ISO. Hill has allowed a .185 ISO with a 40.6% fly-ball rate to righties since last season.
