The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features six games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($9,900) – New York Yankees (-257) at Baltimore Orioles
In 36.2 innings this season, Cole has posted an 11.29 K/9 and 15.4% swinging-strike rate. After an Opening Day debacle in which he lasted only 1 2/3 innings and scored 2.16 DraftKings points, Cole has gone for at least 25 in each of the last four starts with a high of 34.01.
Baltimore is 13th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching and 19th in ISO. They are also implied for the fewest runs on the slate. Cole has five Pro Trends backing him, and he has the highest projection.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Lucas Giolito ($8,300) – Chicago White Sox (-164) at Kansas City Royals
The Royals are only 19th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching, but they are 28th in ISO. Giolito has a 12.49 K/9 and 15.5% swinging-strike rate in 26.2 innings this season. There are five Pro Trends backing him, and he has the highest Bargain Rating on the slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Dane Dunning ($7,300) – Texas Rangers (+139) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have a scary offense to face as they are second in ISO against right-handed pitching. Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani is as tough of a 1-2-3 as there is. That said, they are also seventh in strikeouts against right-handed pitching.
Three starts ago, Dunning faced the Braves, who are second in strikeouts and sixth in ISO, and put up 31.46 DraftKings points against them. That’s obviously a ceiling outcome, and Dunning has produced 9.96, 18.5, 15.16, and 3.6 in the other four starts but it’s within the range of outcomes. Dunning has the highest Leverage mark and second-best Bargain Rating on the slate.
The ownership will likely be below 5%.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by median projections belongs to the New York Yankees:
- DJ LeMahieu (1) ($4,600)
- Aaron Judge (2) ($6,100)
- Anthony Rizzo (3) ($5,300)
- Giancarlo Stanton (4) ($5,700)
- Josh Donaldson (7) ($4,000)
The Yankees are implied for the second-most runs on the slate. They get to face Jordan Lyles, who they demolished for six earned runs and three home runs in 4 2/3 innings a few weeks ago. That game was in New York, while today’s affair is in Baltimore. New York is ninth for home runs in terms of park factors while Baltimore is 27th.
While the change in venue may help some for Lyles, he is still a mediocre pitcher at best. Dating back to last season, the xFIP is 5.03, while the strikeout rate is 19.2%. Against lefties, he’s allowed a .228 ISO and .18 to righties.
Aaron Judge has a .267 ISO against righties, Anthony Rizzo is at .229, Giancarlo Stanton is .266, while Josh Donaldson is at .202.
Note: Projections may change and influence the top stacks as the day progresses.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections belongs to the New York Yankees:
This is the first time this season, at least for me, in which both the THE BAT and the FantasyLabs projections have spit out a similar stack. There is one difference, though, and that is THE BAT replaces DJ LeMahieu with Joey Gallo. LeMahieu has a .102 ISO against right-handed pitching while Gallo is at .261.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Teoscar Hernandez OF ($4,900 DraftKings) – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzales)
Gonzales is a lefty who has allowed a .250 ISO to righties dating back to last season. Hernandez absolutely crushes left-handed pitching, as the ISO is a whopping .351 against them dating back to last season. He’s going to be very popular and is projected to be one of the highest-rostered hitters, so factor that into the roster construction calculations.
Michael Chavis 3B/OF ($3,800 DraftKings) – Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (Drew Smyly)
In 29.2 innings this season, Smyly has a 6.37 K/9, 4.47 FIP, and 1.52 HR/9. Since last season, he’s allowed a .211 ISO to righties. Chavis has a .247 ISO against left-handed pitching over that same span.
Jose Abreu 1B ($4,100 DraftKings) – Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (Zack Greinke)
Abreu has been ice cold to start the season, slashing .211/.297/.328 with a .117 ISO. He’s swinging and missing less, but he’s had some unfortunate BABIP luck. He is hitting more groundballs, though. Regardless, he is one of the higher projected batters on the slate and will likely garner single-digit ownership. He’s a 30-home-run player, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets hot. He faces Greinke, who has been more effective against lefties than righties. Including last season, he has allowed a .205 ISO to righties. Abreu has had a .180 ISO against righties.
