The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features seven games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Shohei Ohtani ($8,800) – Los Angeles Angels (-122) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays just got no-hit by Reid Detmers. Reid Detmers! Against right-handed pitching, Tampa Bay is fifth in strikeouts. In 26 1/3 innings this season, Ohtani has a 14.01 K/9, 1.52 FIP, and a robust 17.5% swinging-strike rate. Overall, Ohtani has nine Pro Trends backing him, the Rays are implied for only 3.5 runs, he has the highest strikeout prediction, and the Bargain Rating is the highest on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Joey Wentz ($5,300) – Detroit Tigers (-121) vs. Oakland Athletics
Wentz is making his MLB debut, and he posted a 4.58 BB/9 in 19 2/3 Triple-A innings this season, so things could get rough. That said, he did post an 11.9 K/9, and Oakland is third in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. Oakland is 27th in runs scored, 26th in home runs, and 28th in RBIs. Oakland is implied for only 3.7 runs, and there are four Pro Trends backing Wentz.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Miles Mikolas ($9,100) – St. Louis Cardinals (-230) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Mikolas only has a 7.13 K/9 and 3 FIP in 35 1/3 innings this season. He’s been fortunate to post a 1.53 ERA since the BABIP is .255, and he’s stranded 90.6% of runners. The swinging strike rate is a paltry 7.2%. That said, He’s scored at least 14 DraftKings points in every start this season, with three over 20. He has the third-highest projection in THE BAT, yet the projected ownership is in the single digits. There are five Pro Trends backing him.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by median projection belongs to the New York Mets:
- Brandon Nimmo (1) ($4,800)
- Francisco Lindor (2) ($5,100)
- Jeff McNeil (3) ($4,300)
- Pete Alonso (4) ($4,900)
- Starling Marte (7) ($4,900)
The Mets are implied for the most runs on the slate. They face Aaron Sanchez, who has posted a 4.54 FIP with a 5.93 K/9 in 13 2/3 innings, and the Washington bullpen is 13th in FIP.
While Sanchez doesn’t miss bats, he does induce tons of ground balls, and the ISO allowed to righties was .085 dating back to last season while it was .153 to lefties. His primary pitch is the sinker, and there are no Mets with an ISO over .200 against the pitch. Just things to think about.
Note: Projections may change and influence the top stacks as the day progresses.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals have the second-highest implied total on the slate and get to face Spenser Watkins, who has posted a 5.54 FIP with a 4.03 K/9 and 4.03 BB/9 in 22 1/3 innings. Dating back to last season, he’s especially been prone to right-handed bats as the ISO is .318, strikeout rate is 10.4%, the hard-hit rate is 49.7%, and the average hit distance is 201.5. Arenado, Yepez, and O’Neill all have ISOs over .200 against right-handed pitching, while Goldschmidt and Bader are at .170 and .182 respectively. This stack will likely be heavily owned so keep that in mind.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($5,700 DraftKings) – Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox (Nathan Eovaldi)
Acuna is near the top of the projections but is projected for single-digit ownership. Dating back to last season, he has a .296 ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s on a seven-game hitting streak and has bopped two home runs over that span.
Brad Miller 3B/OF ($2,500 DraftKings) – Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Miller is cheap and is going to be highly rostered, so factor that into roster construction. That said, he’s cheap and gets to face Brady Singer, who’s allowed a .186 ISO and 43.4% hard-hit rate to lefties dating back to last season. Miller has a .217 ISO against righties and has three home runs and three stolen bases. The slash is only .188/.209/.344, though. There’s a reason why he’s sub-$3,000.
Yordan Alvarez OF ($5,900 DraftKings) – Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (Chris Archer)
Alvarez has eight home runs on the season with a .317 ISO. Archer has a 5.77 FIP with a 2.33 HR/9. Dating back to last season, the ISO is .250 against lefties with a fly-ball rate of 48.9% and a hard-hit rate of 46.7%. Alvarez is projected to be rostered on fewer than 5% of teams.
