The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Nathan Eovaldi ($8,800 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel), Boston Red Sox (-166) at Los Angeles Angels
It’s close between Aaron Nola and Eovaldi, as both are facing teams that strike out plenty against right-handed pitching but also have high ISOs against them. I will take the $600 discount on Eovaldi, but, if the projected ownership comes in too high, I have no problems pivoting to Nola.
Eovaldi has the highest K Prediction on the slate at 7.22 and has five Pro Trends backing him. The Angels are second in strikeouts and fifth in ISO against right-handed pitching. Eovaldi has gone for at least 30 DraftKings points in each of his last two starts.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Ian Anderson ($6,400 DraftKings; $7,700 on FanDuel), Atlanta Braves (-242) vs. Oakland Athletics
The stats don’t jump off the board for Anderson as the K/9 is 7.55, BB/9 is 4.02, and the FIP is 4.74. He has produced 20 DraftKings points only once this season. That said, he’s gone at least five innings in every start and scored double-digit DraftKings points in all but two starts.
He is coming off a nine-strikeout game and now faces an Oakland team that is seventh in strikeouts and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Anderson has six Pro Trends backing him.
There is a postponement risk with this game so keep abreast of all the news.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Johnny Cueto ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,000 on Fanduel) – Chicago White Sox (+148) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are implied for 4.79 runs and could be one of the highest-rostered stacks. With Cueto not being cheap, the ownership will likely be low. If he pitches well, you’d be killing two birds with one stone.
The stats do not jump off the page with Cueto, but he’s a wily veteran who keeps opposing batters off balance. In 24 2/3 innings this season, the FIP is a respectable 3.1, and he’s only walked seven while allowing one home run. He’s pitched at least six innings in every start and produced double-digit DraftKings points in three of four with a high of 25.1.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model, when generated by median projections belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (1) ($6,200)
- Dansby Swanson (2) ($5,200)
- Austin Riley (3) ($5,700)
- Ozzie Albies (4) ($4,800)
- Marcell Ozuna (5) ($4,700)
There is a postponement risk due to weather so keep abreast of the news.
The Braves are tops in ISO against left-handed pitching. Acuna has a .329 ISO, Swanson is at .215, Riley at .229, and Albies is at .228. Ozuna is the only one below .200 with a .109 mark. They are implied for a slate-high 5.88 runs.
They get to face Jared Koenig, who will be making his MLB debut. In 53 Triple-A innings this season, the K/9 is 10.36, BB/9 is 2.55, HR/9 is 0.68, and FIP is 3.42.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
Labs and the Bat X are in synchronous harmony today, as both like the Braves as the top stack on the slate. As mentioned above, there are weather concerns for this game so keep an eye on all the news.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Mike Zunino C ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,100 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Packy Naughton)
Packy Naughton will get the start for the Cardinals. He’s pitched three innings only once in a game this season, so he won’t be in there long. Against righties, the K/9 is 10.29 this season, but he’s allowed a .323/.344/.484 slash against them. He has been a little unlucky as the BABIP is .409, but, in his brief MLB career, he has had his struggles against righties. Zunino has a .430 ISO against lefties dating back to last season. The Cardinals bullpen has the seventh-worst FIP.
Giancarlo Stanton OF ($5,500 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel), New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (Chris Archer)
Archer no longer misses bats, as the K/9 is 7.32, and the swinging-strike rate is at 9.6%. Against righties this season, the HR/9 is 1.52, and FIP is 5.04. That’s trouble against Stanton because he has a .263 ISO against right-handed pitching. Aaron Judge will likely garner three times the ownership of Stanton.
Randy Arozarena OF ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Packy Naughton)
I went over in the Zunino section above why I like the matchup against the Cardinals pitching staff today. Arozarena will likely bat leadoff and has both home run and stolen base equity. Over the last two weeks, Arozarena has slashed .258/.324/.516 with a .258 ISO. The strikeout rate has decreased to 17.6%, and he’s hit two home runs while stealing three bases.
