The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features seven games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani ($9,100 DraftKings; $10,500 FanDuel), Los Angeles Angeles (-185) vs. Chicago White Sox
Ohtani faces the White Sox, who are 28th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Alek Monaoh and Sandy Alcantara are the next highest projected pitchers, and they face Boston and St. Louis, who are 25th and 26th. The White Sox are also just 28th in ISO, so he has the clear best matchup of the bunch.
In 68 1/3 innings pitched this season, Ohtani has an 11.85 K/9, a 2.77 FIP, and a 14.3% swinging-strike rate. He has the third-highest K Prediction on the slate, and his seven Pro Trends are tied for first.
Ohtani has gone eight, six, and seven innings in his last three starts, putting up 46.2, 26.5, and 26.15 DraftKings points. His projected ownership is also below 20%, far below those of Manoah and Alcantara.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Justin Steele ($6,500 DraftKings; $7,600 on FanDuel), Chicago Cubs (-136) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Steele is a lefty who has an 8.49 K/9 and a 3.60 FIP in 64 2/3 innings pitched. He’s done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just 0.7 homers per nine innings. The Reds are a decent matchup, ranking 14th in both strikeouts and ISO against lefties.
The winds are projected to be blowing in from center at six miles per hour at Wrigley tonight, and the Reds implied team total of 3.6 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Steele has scored double-digit DraftKings points in each of his last three starts and has two games above 25 on the season.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Kyle Wright ($9,500 DraftKings; $10,400 on FanDuel) – Atlanta Braves (-141) at Philadelphia Phillies
Wright isn’t cheap, and his Bargain Rating on DraftKings is tied for the worst mark on the slate. As a result, his projected ownership is in the teens with the potential to be lower.
The Phillies will be without Bryce Harper in the lineup. While they still have potent boppers, it’s a big blow.
Wright has a K/9 of 9.74 and a 12.4% swinging-strike rate in 85 innings pitched this season. His FIP is 2.9, and his HR/9 is a paltry 0.53. His last two starts haven’t been great, as he posted 8.19 and 12.3 DraftKings points. That said, he went for over 20 in five of the last six games. He has exceeded points expectations 60% of the time and put up over 20 DraftKings points in nine starts this season with a high of 35.9.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model, when generated by median projections belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Trea Turner (1) ($6,000)
- Will Smith (2) ($5,400)
- Freddie Freeman (3) ($5,700)
- Max Muncy (4) ($4,800)
- Justin Turner (5) ($4,400)
The Dodgers are in Colorado. End of analysis.
They are projected for a slate-high 6.6 runs and face German Marquez, who has a 7.59 K/9, 1.56 HR/9, and 4.86 FIP on the season.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections, belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Not surprisingly, THE BAT X and FantasyLabs models are in tune today. Yeah, Coors Field. The only difference is that THE BAT X has Cody Bellinger inserted instead of Justin Turner.
Dating back to last season, Marquez has allowed a .205 ISO to righties and a .134 mark to lefties. He’s struck out 25.8% of righties, though, compared to 19.2% of lefties. His hard-hit rate has been 44% to both, but he’s allowed 10% more fly balls to righties than lefties.
You can’t really go wrong with either player, but Bellinger provides slight savings.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Rafael Ortega OF ($2,900 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel), Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds (Hunter Greene)
Greene is young and has tremendous upside. He has a 40.15 DraftKings points game to his name already this season. That said, he also has two negative DraftKings points games. He’s allowed three and two home runs over the last two games. Dating back to last season, he’s allowed a .208 ISO to lefties with a 30.7% strikeout rate.
Ortega only has a .145 ISO against righties this season, but it’s .172 if you go back to last season. He’s batting second in the order and is sub-$3,000.
Once Greene is out of the game, the Reds’ bullpen has the highest FIP and has allowed the third-most HR/9.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,100 DraftKings; $4,200 FanDuel), Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins (Dylan Bundy)
Bundy has not allowed a home run in two straight games. He’s due! In his previous 10 starts, he allowed a home run in six of them. He allowed two home runs in four of those contests, and dating back to last season, he’s allowed a .208 ISO to lefties.
Ramirez has a .315 ISO against righties over that span. He’s one of the best hitters in MLB, and his ownership should be depressed thanks to the Dodgers.
Josh Naylor 1B ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel), Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins (Dylan Bundy)
I just went over Bundy above. Naylor will likely hit cleanup, is cheap, and mashes right-handed pitching. In 137 plate appearances against righties, he has a .304/.358/.560 slash with a .256 ISO. That’s translated to seven of his eight home runs on the season.
Once Bundy is out of the game, the Twins bullpen has the fifth-highest FIP and sixth-highest HR/9.
