The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features eight games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Robbie Ray ($9,500 DraftKings; $9,700 FanDuel), Seattle Mariners (-143) at Baltimore Orioles
Nestor Cortes has the highest rating and projection per our MLB Models, but I like Ray slightly better. He is $1,200 cheaper than Cortes on DraftKings and has the highest K Prediction on the slate by a wide margin. Baltimore is second in strikeouts and 23rd in ISO against left-handed pitching. Ray has produced double-digit DraftKings points in every start this season and has put up over 20 in three of the last four starts with a high of 30.36. He has struck out 10, eight, nine, and 10 batters over his previous four games.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jon Gray ($6,400 DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel), Texas Rangers (+102) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Gray has been a solid but unspectacular pitcher for DFS this season. He has not scored more than 20 DraftKings points in any contest and has scored fewer than 10 in three games. That said, he gets a good matchup on Wednesday as the Rays are fifth in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. They are 11th in ISO, but Gray has only allowed four home runs in 34 innings pitched this season. Gray surprisingly has the third-highest K Prediction on the slate and the third-highest projection.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Garrett Whitlock ($7,000) – Boston Red Sox (-214) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Whitlock opened the season as a dominant reliever but transitioned to the starting rotation in late April. Since then, he’s made seven starts, pitching at least five innings in only three without exceeding 84 pitches. He’s given up four home runs and at least two earned runs in every contest.
That said, he’s still posted a 10.24 K/9 and 12.8% swinging-strike rate. The Reds are eighth in strikeouts against right-handed pitching, and Whitlock also boasts six Pro Trends. This game has a chance of getting postponed due to weather so keep an eye on any updates.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model, when generated by median projections belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Mookie Betts (1) ($5,500)
- Freddie Freeman (2) ($3,800)
- Trea Turner (3) ($4,800)
- Will Smith (4) ($5,200)
- Justin Turner (5) ($4,900)
The Dodgers are implied for a slate-high 5.7 runs per the Vegas Dashboard. They’re facing Jose Quintana, who has been surprisingly good this season with a 3.23 FIP and 0.39 HR/9. That said, he’s had some good fortune with a BABIP of only .265 and a strand rate of 74.7%. His K/9 is only 7.43, while his swinging-strike rate is 10.8%.
Los Angeles is 11th in ISO against left-handed pitching. Once they get past Quintana, the Pirates bullpen has allowed the seventh-highest FIP so far on the season. Overall, it’s another great spot for the Dodgers.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Against left-handed pitching, Betts has a .220 ISO, Freeman is at .202, Turner is at .263, Smith is at .186, and J. Turner is at .208.
The Dodgers have surprisingly lost the first two games of the series and have only lost three games in a row once this season.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Eugenio Suarez ($4,200 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel), Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Bradish)
Suarez has plenty of swing-and-miss to his game, as his strikeout rate is 32.3%. However, he also has plenty of power given his .220 ISO. Eight of his nine home runs have come against right-handed pitching this season. In 71 plate appearances against righties, Bradish has allowed a .377 ISO, 216.8 hit distance, 46.9% hard-hit rate, and 44.9% flyball rate. His strikeout rate is just 18.3% in that split, so Suarez should be able to put the ball in play. If that happens, there’s a chance he hits one a long way.
Anthony Rizzo 1B ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel), New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
The lefty/lefty matchup will likely depress ownership. Rizzo hasn’t been great against lefties this season, as his average is only .190. However, his ISO is a robust .270, with four of his 11 home runs coming against left-handed pitching. In 61 plate appearances dating back to last season, Detmers has allowed a .263 ISO and 217.4 hit distance against lefties.
Kyle Garlick OF ($2,200 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel), Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (Tarik Skubal)
Garlick will likely bat third against the lefty Skubal. In 32 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, he has a .308/.406/.654 slash line with a .346 ISO and three home runs. Zooming out, in 123 career plate appearances, Garlick has hit 10 of his 12 home runs against lefties with a slash line of .268/.324/.585 and a .317 ISO. Skubal has allowed 2.15 HR/9 and a .222 ISO to righties throughout his career, so Garlick is a nice source of savings on this slate.
