The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Severino ($9,100 DraftKings; $9,500 FanDuel), New York Yankees (-245) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Severino has a 13.3% swinging-strike rate and 10.5 K/9. The Pirates are second in strikeouts against right-handed pitching, and it’s hard to beat that combination. Severino has produced at least 14 DKFP in nine straight starts, with three over 20 and a high of 38.6. He has failed to go at least five innings in only two starts this season, with one of those coming in the opener.
Five Pro Trends are backing Severino, he has the highest K Prediction by a wide margin, and the Yankees are the second-biggest favorites on the slate. There is very little not to like about Severino in this spot.
Another benefit is that, while Severino has the third-highest projection and rating on the slate, he is projected to be the lowest-owned among the top three pitchers, behind Christian Javier and Aaron Nola.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Merrill Kelly ($7,200 DraftKings; $8,600 on FanDuel), Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) vs. San Francisco Giants
Kelly does not wow with a 7.32 K/9 and 3.07 BB/9. However, his FIP is 3.40, and he’s done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard, evidenced by a 0.59 HR/9. The Giants aren’t the best matchup for Kelly as they are 13th in ISO, but they also rank 13th in strikeouts.
The main allure of Kelly is longevity. He’s pitched at least six innings in each of his last five starts. He’s produced double-digit DKFP in all of those contests, with three over 20. He just put up 20.15 DKFP in Coors Field, so he’s capable of finding success in this matchup.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Josiah Gray ($8,200 DraftKings; $8,900 on FanDuel) – Washington Nationals (+185) at Philadelphia Phillies
Gray isn’t cheap and could get blown up today. A perfect GPP option! He’s allowed three home runs in his past two starts and has a 1.78 HR/9, 3.89 BB/9, and 4.99 FIP for the year. That said, he has a 12.3% swinging-strike rate and 9.78 K/9.
He faced the Phillies three starts ago and lasted six innings with four strikeouts, three walks, and just one hit. That was good for 18.5 DKFP. On the season, he has put up fewer than 10 DKFP five times, but he’s also gone over 20 five times with a high of 30.5. Like I said, a perfect GPP option.
Gray is the sixth-highest projected pitcher with the second-highest K Prediction, yet he is expected to be rostered on around 10 percent of teams.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model, when generated by median projections belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- Josh Smith (1) ($3,600)
- Marcus Semien (2) ($5,100)
- Corey Seager (3) ($5,100)
- Adolis Garcia (4) ($4,900)
- Kole Calhoun (5) ($3,900)
There are weather concerns for this game so keep abreast of all the updates.
In 41 innings this season, Spencer Watkins has a 5.05 K/9 and 5.04 FIP. I respect the symmetry, but neither of those marks is very impressive. His swinging-strike rate is also only 8.8%, so he struggles to miss bats.
Right-handed batters have been particularly effective against Watkins dating back to the start of last season. They’ve posted a .255 ISO, so Semian and Garcia stand out as particularly appealing options.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections, belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers are the only team with a run total over 6 on the slate. While they are playing the Rockies, the game will be in Los Angeles.
However, they get to face Jose Urena, which is nearly as good as playing in Coors. Urena has been absolutely terrible this season. Actually, he hasn’t been good his entire career. He has career marks of 6.07 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, a 4.80 FIP, and an 8.8% swinging-strike rate. The Dodgers are second in ISO against right-handed pitching this season, so they can do significant damage in this spot.
Once Urena is out of the game — which could be sooner than later — the Rockies bullpen has the ninth-highest FIP and 15th-highest HR/9.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Darick Hall OF ($2,800 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel), Philadephia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray)
Hall will bat fourth for the Phillies and is sub-$3,000 across the industry. He has three home runs in 23 plate appearances this season, all against righties. Gray has swing-and-miss stuff, but he’s also prone to the long ball, especially against left-handed batters. He has a 2.56 HR/9 and 6.87 FIP against lefties in 81 innings this season.
Jake Lamb 3B/OF ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,000 FanDuel), Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies (Jose Urena)
Urena is bad. I went over him in the BAT X stack above. Lamb has historically done well against right-handed pitching, posting a career .252/.341/.459 slash with a .206 ISO. He’s only had 12 plate appearances with the Dodgers this season but has produced strong results: a single, double, and triple with two walks. His BABIP is sky-high and he’s struck out four times, but he’s a great way to get some cheap exposure to an elite offense.
Kyle Tucker OF ($5,100 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel), Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals (Brad Keller)
Tucker will likely bat fifth and possesses a juicy power/speed combo. In 303 plate appearances this season, he has 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases. He faces Brad Keller, who is great against righties but struggles against lefties. His HR/9 is 1.67 and his FIP is 5.27 in that split, making this an outstanding matchup for Tucker. He is currently projected to be rostered on fewer than 10% of teams, which is simply too low.
