The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Pablo Lopez ($10,100) Minnesota Twins (-260) vs. Kansas City Royals
In most slates, we have to weigh matchup vs. player ability to various extents. The top arm might have a tough matchup, or less impressive pitchers have easier ones, etc. Rarely though, we’re lucky enough to have arguably the best pitcher on the slate in what is inarguably the best matchup.
That would be Lopez against the Royals, whose numbers against right-handed pitching are abysmal. They’ve been bad enough that even far lesser pitchers have been viable options, and only the Rockies against lefties have a lower wRC+ of any team/handedness combination.
Lopez sits just below Justin Steele ($10,300) for the best xERA on the slate while leading all main-slate pitchers in strikeout rate at 30%. While his actual ERA is elevated a bit at 4.24, all of his leading indicators are in the low-to-mid threes, suggesting he’s been a tad unlucky.
Lopez unsurprisingly has the best Vegas Data on the slate, with the longest moneyline odds and the lowest opponent implies total. Of course, that means he’ll also come with elevated ownership, but he’s a strong enough play that we can try to get contrarian elsewhere.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Seth Lugo ($7,900) San Diego Padres (-182) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Lugo’s projections are a bit fragile at the time of this writing. He’s taking on an Angels team that we know is without Mike Trout — who was placed on the IL with a foot fracture. However, they could also be without Shoehei Ohtani ($6,600), who exited last night’s contest with a blister.
Obviously, the Angels become a better matchup than they appear on paper without Trout. They’d be a much better matchup without Ohtani as well. Trout and Ohtani are two of the top 20 or so hitters in baseball by wRC+, with Ohtani first by a wide margin.
Lugo comes into the contest with a strikeout rate in the low 20s and an ERA in the mid-threes. All of his leading indicators suggest those numbers are about right. Normally that wouldn’t be worth paying roughly $8,000 for, but the Angels sans Trout and Ohtani would be a Royals-level matchup for Lugo.
Therefore, it’s worth keeping an eye on our lineups page and/or news feed this afternoon. If Ohtani is ruled out, Lugo becomes a near must-play.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Alec Marsh ($5,000) Kansas City Royals (+210) at Minnesota Twins
A matchup with the Twins is inherently a high-risk, high-reward situation. They’ve been a solid offense against righties, with a top-ten wRC+ on the season. However, they also strike out at an absurd 27% clip, giving plenty of upside to opposing hurlers.
Besides the volatility of the matchup, Marsh’s lack of track record makes this one hard to predict. He’s made just one MLB appearance, lasting four innings while allowing five runs. That appearance was against the Dodgers, though, one of the hardest matchups in baseball.
He also picked up five strikeouts in those four innings and projects as a roughly strikeout-per-inning player coming into the big leagues. That gives him plenty of upside tonight, while being matched up against the slate’s chalkiest arm should keep his ownership reasonable.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
We’re expecting fireworks in Boston tonight, with the Red Sox taking on the Rangers in a game where both teams are implied for over five runs. Boston stands out as a DFS stack, though, thanks to their extremely cheap price tags.
Everything is setting up nicely in this one, with solid hitting weather in Boston to the tune of a 53 Weather Rating, an umpire with a Trend of benefiting hitters, and a 75 Park Factor for lefty bats in the game.
Additionally, none of the Boston hitters are projecting for more than 10% ownership, making them an ideal GPP option tonight.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
William Contreras C ($4,300 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs (Justin Steele)
We don’t get a ton of catchers leading off, which instantly caught my eye on Contreras. In fact, he’s the only one projecting to hit first today and one of three in the top third of their team’s order. While it’s a difficult pitching matchup with the Cubs Steele, an extra at-bat or two can make up for that.
The bigger factor is Contreras’ awesome numbers against left-handed arms, though, as highlighted by our PlateIQ tool:
The ability to see at-a-glance which hitters are on the right side of their platoon splits is my favorite feature of PlateIQ, and it also has me considering Joey Wiemer ($2,700 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) due to his lefty splits.
Corey Seager SS ($6,200 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (Brayan Bello)
As we discussed in the suggested stack, this game looks like it should feature plenty of offense from both teams, with excellent hitting conditions all around.
On the Rangers’ side, the best option to take advantage of that is Seager. He has a .278 ISO and .447 wOBA against righties this season, easily the best on the Rangers. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello ($8,500) has also been worse against lefties, giving Seager the edge over his teammate Marcus Semien ($5,900 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel).
Both are even better plays on FanDuel, though, with Bargain Ratings in the upper 90% range for both.
TJ Friedl OF ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray)
Friedl is set to leadoff for the Reds, who have a five-run implied total as they travel to Washington to take on the Nationals. He’s been a big part of the scorching-hot Reds’ success lately, hitting over .300 with 15 steals and six home runs through 63 games.
Like the game in Boston, this one features solid conditions for hitters — especially lefties like Friedl. The Park Factor, Weather Rating, and Umpire are all favorable to bats. He’s a strong play at his price tag, and his excellent speed provides plenty of upside — especially considering the strong hitters behind him.
