The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a seven-game early slate starting at 2:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Christian Javier ($8,700 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel), Houston Astros (-200) at Oakland Athletics
Corbin Burnes is on the slate, and he is the “best pitcher” with the highest K Prediction. That said, I like Javier, especially considering the price and the matchup. Javier is -$1,400 cheaper than Burnes, and the matchup vs. the A’s is chef’s kiss good. They rank seventh in strikeouts and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching.
Now, not all is rainbows and unicorns. Javier has put up fewer than 20 DKFP in each of the last three starts, and he lasted only four innings while putting up 10.2 DKFP in a start against Oakland back in May. That said, the upside is tremendous as he went for 45 DKFP twice in June. On the season, he has a 13.8% swinging strike rate, a 12.4 K/9, and a 3.20 FIP.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Brad Keller ($6,100 DraftKings; $7,200 on FanDuel), Kansas City Royals (-136) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Keller is the definition of a mediocre pitcher. His K/9 is just 6.02, and his swinging strike rate is 8.8%. That said, he’s cheap, and his range of outcomes is wide. While he’s scored fewer than 10 DKFP eight times this season — three of which have gone for negative points — he has gone over 20 DKFP three times. He has also pitched at least six innings in 11 starts.
The Angels are 1st in strikeouts against right-handed pitching, so Keller has more upside than usual in that department.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Patrick Corbin ($6,600 DraftKings; $6,500 on FanDuel), Washington Nationals (+245) at Los Angeles Dodgers
GPP plays are usually gross and vomit-inducing, and Corbin certainly fits that description. He has a 6.02 ERA with an 8.43 K/9 and 1.55 HR/9, and he’s scored 10 or fewer DraftKings points 11 times this season. The Dodgers also crush left-handed pitching and have the second-highest total on the slate.
That said, this is still baseball, and anything can happen on any given slate. While Corbin has been gross for much of the year, he has had some bad luck, as his BABIP is an elevated .368. His FIP is also approximately 1.5 runs lower than his traditional ERA. He’s also displayed an excellent ceiling, scoring 39.8 DraftKings points against the Pirates four starts ago.
Corbin will carry minuscule ownership, while the Dodgers will be one of the highest-owned stacks. It’s a great leverage opportunity.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by median projections belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
- Tim Anderson (1) ($5,200)
- Yoan Moncada (2) ($4,300)
- Andrew Vaughn (3) ($4,600)
- Jose Abreu (4) ($4,900)
- Eloy Jimenez (5) ($4,300)
Coors Field. No further analysis needed.
Fine. The White Sox have the highest total on the slate at 6.3 runs. They get to face Antonio Senzatela, who has a 5.26 K/9 and 4.18 FIP. He has done a decent job keeping the ball in the park, but that hasn’t helped him keep runs off the scoreboard. Senzatela has exceeded 15 DKFP only twice this season. The Rockies bullpen has the 11th-highest FIP.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections, belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers have the second-highest total on the slate. I did write up Corbin above because, well, it’s baseball. That said, the probabilities skew towards the Dodgers offense getting busy in this one. Dating back to last season, Mookie Betts has .283 ISO against left-handed pitching. Trea Turner is at .272, Freddie Freeman is at .290, and Will Smith is at .214.
Once Corbin is out of the game, the Nationals bullpen has the second-highest FIP and third-highest HR/9.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Marcus Semien 2B/SS ($5,100 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel), Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzales)
Against righties this season, the soft-tossing Gonzales has a 4.47 K/9, 1.35 HR/9, and 5.05 FIP. Against left-handed pitching, Semien has a .268/.342/.454 triple-slash with a .186 ISO. He will likely bat leadoff and has 13 home runs and 17 stolen bases on the season.
Hunter Renfroe OF ($4,500 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel), Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins (Chris Archer)
Archer has been more effective against lefties than righties this season. His K/9 is 8.89 against lefties and only 5.82 against righties. He also allows nearly an additional homer per nine innings, while his FIP jumps from 3.96 vs. 5.16.
Renfroe has also been at his best against right-handed pitching. His strikeout rate is 4.5% lower in that split, and he’s posted a .263/.316/.526 triple-slash with a .263 ISO. Additionally, 12 of his 17 home runs have come against right-handed pitching.
Emmanuel Rivera 3B ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,100 FanDuel), Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels (Janson Junk)
I’m not crazy about this play because Rivera has been much better against left-handed pitching than righties. Junk is a righty, but he has 17 innings of MLB experience, throws his fastball in the low-90s, and boasts a swinging strike rate under 10%. Rivera is the stone minimum and is batting cleanup, and it’s hard to pass up that kind of savings.
