The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Justin Verlander ($8,800) New York Mets (-215) vs. Chicago White Sox
While Verlander is clearly not the pitcher he once was — almost nobody ever has been — he’s still an above-average major league starter. That’s moved him from the “play him regardless of the opponent” category firmly into “matchup and salary dependent.”
However, both of those things are working in his favor today. His $8,800 salary certainly isn’t cheap, but it’s a significant discount from the five-figure range he was in earlier this season. More importantly, the White Sox are one of the best matchups on the board today for righties.
They rank 27th in wRC+, with an above-average strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching. Verlander isn’t going to be a huge strikeout arm anymore, but if he picks up a handful to go with six or so innings without allowing much scoring, we can live with that at his price.
The lack of strikeouts has also made him a bit more efficient, so a seven or eight-inning outing is well within reach for Verlander tonight. He leads THE BAT in median points while coming in a close second in the FantasyLabs models.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Carlos Rodon ($8,500) New York Yankees (-140) at Los Angeles Angels
There isn’t much to like south of the $8,000 or so range tonight, making Rodon a de facto value pick despite not being all that cheap. Of course, when we can spend under $9,000 for our top pitcher, we don’t need to save quite as much salary in the second spot.
This will be just the third start this season for Rodon, so we should take his 2023 stats with a grain of salt. He’s an absolute steal at his price tag if he can recapture his 2021/2022 numbers, though. He had a sub 3.00 ERA (and xERA) while striking out more than 30% of batters in both seasons.
The matchup is tough on paper, with the Angels as a top-five team against lefties this season. We should take that with a massive grain of salt, though, as most of their previous games included Mike Trout, who’s currently on the injury list. It’s hard to quantify exactly where they’d rank without Trout, but it’s safe to say it would be considerably worse.
Rodon also has the added benefit of lower ownership projections than the other pitchers we’re considering today — possibly for the last time if he can get back to the old him.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Castillo ($9,300) Seattle Mariners (-150) vs. Minnesota Twins
It’s a fine line between “stud” and “GPP pick” with Verlander and Castillo today. Our projection models are split on who has the highest projection, with FantasyLabs favoring Castillo and the Bat favoring Verlander — though both are close. Vegas is on Castillo’s side, with a lower opponent total and better moneyline odds, but again it’s fairly close.
Castillo has the higher variance, though, thanks to our oft-discussed matchup with the Twins. As mentioned frequently here, Minnesota isn’t a bad offense — they just strike out a ton. Yesterday they scored 10 runs with 12 strikeouts, and on Monday, they scored six runs with 14 strikeouts.
Castillo is a better pitcher than either of the two Mariners to start in this series so far, but that still represents a fairly wide range of outcomes.
That makes him a much better GPP play than Verlander — but probably worse for cash games.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
The Giants have been our top suggested stack in each game of their series against the Reds, and Wednesday is no different. They lived up to expectations last night with 11 runs, but despite that are still priced at an extremely affordable level today.
San Francisco has the highest implied total of any road team on the slate, which instantly puts them in the conversation for the best stack. The real appeal is the Park Factor, though, since Cincinnati is the best hitters park outside of Coors Field.
That plus a non-threatening matchup with the Reds Graham Ashcraft ($5,800), makes it easy to see the appeal of the Giants. Let’s go back to the well one more time.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Oswald Peraza 2B/3B ($3,000 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (Chase Silseth)
The salary is starting to creep up on Peraza, but the Yankees rookie call-up is still too cheap for his position in their lineup. He’s expected to bat first again, making him a solid value for a team implied for nearly five runs today.
He profiles as a speed and contact player, with two steals in the three games he’s played on his current stint in the big leagues. With the powerful bats behind him, he should have plenty of run-scoring opportunities as well. We’ll need him to start hitting a bit more if his salary climbs any higher, but for now, he’s still a great deal — especially on FanDuel, where he has a 63% Bargain Rating.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers (Eduardo Rodriguez)
Witt is a classic GPP hitter, with a middling .253 batting average but massive upside in terms of speed and power. He has 16 home runs and 27 steals on the season, giving him multiple ways to score points in bunches.
It’s a solid matchup tonight against the Tigers’ Rodriguez, who’s looked much worse since returning from injury just before the all-star break. He’s allowed seven runs in nine innings across two starts since making his return.
Witt has also been slightly better against lefties in his career, adding one more reason to prioritize him at a fairly reasonable cost tonight.
Juan Soto OF ($5,500 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios)
Soto falls firmly in the category of player where there’s never really a bad time to play them — just varying degrees of good. With that said, the PlateIQ screen paints a pretty clear picture of who’s driving the Padres’ 4.5-run total:
Elsewhere in PlateIQ, we can also see that Berrios has elevated numbers against left-handed hitters, making Soto an all-around excellent choice tonight.
