The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shane McClanahan ($10,900 DraftKings; $11,200 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Rays (-278) vs. Los Angeles Angels
McClanahan is the top option on the slate by most metrics. He has the highest projections by a wide margin, and the K Prediction is at 7.99, which is the highest on the slate. Only Lucas Giolito has a number above 7.0. The Angels are projected for a paltry 2.7 runs, the only team below 3.0.
Against left-handed pitching, the Angels are 6th in strikeouts and 25th in ISO. McClanahan has a 16.6% swinging strike rate, which is the best mark in MLB. The K/9 is 11.02, while the FIP is at 2.73. There are nine Pro Trends backing McClanahan tonight.
The only issue will be from a game theory perspective since McClanahan is projected to be owned by more than half the field.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Mike Mayers ($5,000 DraftKings; $5,600 on FanDuel), Los Angeles Angels (+230) at Tampa Bay Rays
Mayers is gross, I know. The FIP is 5.95 with a 2.45 HR/9 in 29.1 innings this season. That said, he’s $5,000. While he began the year in the pen, he is now in the starting rotation and threw over 90 pitches last outing in long relief. He could see a similar workload on Wednesday if he doesn’t get blasted. That said, it’s baseball, and crazy things happen.
Mayers does have a 12.1% swinging strike rate with an 8.28 K/9. Against right-handed pitching this season, the Rays are 5th in strikeouts. So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jose Berrios ($7,200 DraftKings; $8,200 on FanDuel), Toronto Blue Jays (-175) at Boston Red Sox
The last three starts have been a microcosm of the season Berrios has had. He allowed two home runs in two of those contests and ended with -4.54 and -12.2 DraftKings points. Then he bounced back against the Yankees by striking out nine and finishing with 30.21 DraftKings points. The range of outcomes is extremely wide, which makes for an excellent GPP play.
The projected ownership is under 10%, and the price is more than palatable. Sure, the matchup isn’t great, but he did face Boston back in late April and struck out six in six innings for 21.5 DraftKings points.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by median projections belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- George Springer (1) ($5,300)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2) ($5,700)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (3) ($4,300)
- Alejandro Kirk (4) ($4,500)
- Bo Bichette (6) ($4,900)
The Blue Jays are implied for 5.3 runs, the second-highest on the slate. Against right-handed pitching, they are 24th in strikeouts and 6th in ISO. Now they face righty Brayan Bello, who has 17 innings of MLB experience. Over the span, the swinging strike has been 8.9% with a 7.94 K/9 and 5.82 BB/9. He is a ground ball pitcher, though, and hasn’t allowed a home run, but he hasn’t pitched more than four innings in a game yet this season.
Over the last six games, Toronto is 5-1 and have scored 6, 9, 4, 5, 2, and 9 runs. That’s been good for the fifth-most runs in MLB over that span, and they have been 8th in ISO.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections, belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
After getting shutout by the Brewers on Monday, the Dodgers bounced back on Tuesday and roughed up Corbin Burnes for 7 earned runs in 3.2 innings and eventually scored a total of 10 runs. Now they get to face Adrian Houser, who has a 6.72 K/9, 4.21 FIP, and 7% swinging strike rate. The Dodgers are 23rd in strikeouts against right-handed pitching and tops in ISO.
Houser has been more effective at limiting power to righties, as the ISO is only .101, compared to .200 against lefties. That said, the hard-hit rate is around 39% to both sides. Dating back to last season, Betts has a .252 ISO against righties, Turner is at .153, Freeman is at .213, Smith is at .207, and Muncy is at .197.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Austin Hays OF ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel), Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox (Lucas Giolito)
Giolito was consistently great to start the season, as he went for at least 30 DraftKings points in seven straight to start the season, with three of those over 40. Since then, he’s been good but has had a couple of stinkers along the way. He’s had a 0, 3, -3, and 3 DraftKings points starts. One of his bugaboos has been trouble against right-handed power bats. He’s allowed a .253 ISO with a 39.2% hard-hit rate and only a 21.5% strikeout rate.
Hays has a .261/.320/.436 slash with a .175 ISO against right-handed pitching this season with a 19.4% strikeout rate.
Kyle Schwarber OF ($6,000 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel), Philadelphia Philles vs. Cincinnati Reds (T. J. Zeuch)
Schwarber is the top projected bat and will likely be heavily rostered. And for good reason. He’s batting leadoff and faces Zeuch, who has allowed 6 earned runs in both starts this season with a total of four home runs. Schwarber has a .311 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and has clubbed 34 home runs in total. There is even some stolen base equity, as he has six on the season.
Joey Gallo OF ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel), Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser)
Yes, Gallo strikes out a lot. Like a lot, a lot. 38.7% on the season so far, in fact. That said, when he connects, the ball usually goes a long way. He has a .205 ISO, and the matchup against Houser is a good one. Houser throws the sinker 36.07% of the time to lefties. Gallo has a .238 ISO and 48.15% hard-hit rate against that pitch over the last three seasons. The sample size is only 28 batted ball events, but still. The projected ownership is 0, and he could provide alternate exposure to what will likely be a popular Dodgers stack.
