The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Max Scherzer ($11,100 DraftKings; $11,500 FanDuel), New York Mets (-154) at Atlanta Braves
Scherzer and Carlos Rodon are the two studs on today’s slate, and the spread between the two isn’t wide. Scherzer has the higher K Prediction, but Rodon has the slightly higher overall points projection. Scherzer is facing a Braves team that is fourth in strikeouts against right-handed pitching.
That said, Atlanta is 4th in ISO, so the matchup is fraught with risk. Rodon faces an Arizona team that is middle-of-the-pack in both strikeouts and ISO against left-handed pitching. While the K Pred is lower than Scherzer, Rodon is a heavier favorite, and Arizona has a lower run total. In addition, there are nine Pro Trends backing Rodon, while Scherzer has four.
Rodon is $300 cheaper, but Scherzer is projected to be rostered on 10% fewer teams. I’ll take that ownership discount all day, every day.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Cal Quantrill ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,300 on FanDuel), Cleveland Guardians (-220) vs. Detroit Tigers
Detroit is the manna-from-heaven matchup for right-handed pitchers. They are second in strikeouts and dead-last in ISO. They turn the ugliest of pumpkins into Cinderella. Yes, they turn inanimate objects into beautiful human beings. Quantrill has a 5.95 K/9 and paltry 8.1% swinging strike rate.
He has gone over 20 DraftKings points only three times this season. Once against these Tigers back in July and twice over the last two starts against the Blue Jays and Astros. He is coming off a 33.15 DraftKings performance against Toronto.
Quantrill has the fourth-highest projection but is going to be very popular. Decisions, decisions.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Michael Kopech ($7,300 DraftKings; $8,200 on FanDuel), Chicago White Sox (+130) vs. Houston Astros
The range of outcomes is wide for Kopech. He’s scored fewer than 20 DraftKings points in 16 starts this season, with seven of those in single digits. He does have two games over 30, though. One of those was against the Tigers in his most recent start, so I can understand if you aren’t impressed, but he accomplished the feat against the vaunted Dodgers offense back in June.
Kopech has a K/9 of 8.25, but control is his main bugaboo, as the walk rate is 4.39. The Astros will likely be a popular stack, so Kopech does make for an interesting GPP play. He has the top Leverage Score on the slate at 94%.
What if he puts up another 30-spot, killing those Astros stacks at single-digit ownership?
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by median projections belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Mookie Betts (1) ($6,100)
- Trea Turner(2) ($5,800)
- Freddie Freeman (3) ($5,600)
- Will Smith (4) ($5,000)
- Justin Turner (5) ($4,300)
Since August 1, the Dodgers have been tops in MLB for home runs (25), runs scored (92), ISO (.237), and SLG (.512). On the season, they are 8th in ISO against left-handed pitching and now get to face lefty Eric Lauer, who has a 1.67 HR/9, 4.68 FIP, and 9.9% swinging strike rate.
Since last season, Betts has a .288 ISO against left-handed pitching, Turner is at .286, Freeman is at .173, Smith is at .186, and Turner is at only .095.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections, belongs to the Houston Astros:
As mentioned above, Michael Kopech has a wide range of outcomes. The more likely scenario is that he gets lit up, especially since he has control problems at times. On the season, Houston is 8th in walk rate and 11th in OBP. Combine that with being fourth in ISO and fifth in SLG, and you have a recipe for fireworks.
Since last season, Altuve has a .173 ISO against right-handed pitching, Alvarez is at a whopping .363, Bregman is at .201, Pena is at .163, and Tucker is at .222.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Daniel Vogelbach 1B ($4,400 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel), New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (Jake Odorizzi)
Odorizzi has done a good job of limiting the long ball this season, as the HR/9 is only 0.79. That said, against lefties, the strikeout plummets 9% compared to righties, and the FIP is 5.53 compared to 3.86. Vogelbach has a .280/.378/.535 slash against right-handed pitching this season with a .265 ISO.
Rodolfo Castro 3B/SS ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel), Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox (Rich Hill)
Rich Hill is a soft-tossing lefty who has a 6.84 K/9. Castro only has 104 plate appearances this season, but both home runs have come off left-handed pitching. The batting average is low, and he will likely hit towards the bottom of the lineup, but he’s cheap and has stolen base equity with two swipes on the season so far.
Rafael Devers 3B ($5,500 DraftKings; $4,200 FanDuel), Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates (Roansy Contreras)
Roansy Contreras has 50 innings pitched to his name this season, and the numbers have been respectable with a 9 K/9 and 12.3% swinging strike rate. As with most young pitchers, though, control has been an issue that has contributed to a 3.96 BB.9 and 4.89 FIP. He also hasn’t pitched in the bigs since early July. Devers is a masher, especially against right-handed pitching. This season, the slash is .309/.376/.612 with a .302 ISO against righties.
